Orin
CTASNasdaq·Specialty Business Services

Cintas Corporation CTAS

Market cap $76.7BP/E 40.0× trailingGross margin 50.7%Reports Wed 23 Sep, before the open
$191.97
−6.83 (−3.44%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $161.16 – $219.17
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Cintas remains a best-in-class compounder — FY2026 (ended 2026-05-31) revenue of $11.26B grew 8.9% YoY, EPS of $4.91 rose 11.6%, and operating margin expanded to 23.1% from 22.8% with gross margin hitting a record 50.5% — but at $199.45 the stock trades at 40.1x earnings, a 27.3% premium to the peer median of 31.5x, and 27.5x EV/EBITDA, a 40.5% premium, leaving limited margin of safety for a business growing EPS ~12% annually. Smart money is only marginally constructive at 0.0286 as of Q2 2026, and while recent insider dispositions on August 10 were tax-withholding-related rather than discretionary, the 24-month net insider selling of 2.13M shares tempers enthusiasm.

The UniFirst acquisition adds optionality but also integration risk at a premium valuation.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 40.1x P/E and 27.5x EV/EBITDA — 27.3% and 40.5% above peer medians respectively — any growth deceleration could trigger multiple contraction with limited cushion.
  • UniFirst integration risk. The pending UniFirst absorption introduces execution uncertainty and potential capital allocation strain while the stock already trades at a rich premium.
  • Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 2.13M shares over 24 months, even if recent transactions were largely tax-related, signals limited insider conviction at current levels.
  • MACD deterioration. MACD histogram of -1.82 with the line below signal as of 2026-08-18 suggests near-term momentum weakness despite price holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

What would change my mind

Valuation reset. P/E compresses below 34x (within 10% of peer median of 31.5x) on share price weakness or EPS growth accelerationbullish
UniFirst deal clarity. UniFirst acquisition closes with accretion guidance or synergies quantified that materially expand CTAS addressable marketbullish
Growth deceleration. FY2027 revenue growth falls below 7% or operating margin contracts below 23%, signaling the compounding story is fadingbearish
Smart money reversal. Smart money score turns negative (below -0.02) in subsequent 13F filings, indicating institutional distributionbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 (period ended 2026-05-31) and derived_metrics · peer_relative as of latest data · technicals as of 2026-08-18 · smart_money as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on CTAS; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-22 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.8B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.7B0.1% of fund
Invesco$2.3B0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.3B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.6B0.1% of fund
Fmr$1.1B0.0% of fund

110 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 134 Form 4 filings, net $6.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E40.0×35.6×44.5×
EV/EBITDA27.4×22.7×
P/S7.06×5.44×
P/B15.5×12.4×

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.10σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

17.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

30 firms · 2026-09-03
Consensus target

$231

$214$250 · +20% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 12 buy or overweight
  • 16 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 31.3× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CTASCintas Corporation$80B40.0×27.4×50.7%17.8%42%
CSXCSX Corporation$91B28.3×16.3×54.9%22.2%24%
EMREmerson Electric Co.$84B32.7×18.6×53.2%13.8%13%
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.$78B24.6×18.8×44.2%19.4%102%
JCIJohnson Controls International plc$86B24.6×26.4×36.7%14.3%27%
PWRQuanta Services, Inc.$93B70.1×32.7×14.4%4.1%15%
TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated$65B35.1×19.2×59.6%21.3%-21%
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.$88B19.2×10.6×16.6%5.1%29%
VRTVertiv Holdings Co$103B59.5×41.2×37.5%15.1%42%
WMWaste Management, Inc.$89B31.3×14.8×35.0%11.1%29%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 23.5×FY26 34.8×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$136$181.37 · −25%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$120$181.37 · −34%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $191.97
52-week range$161 – $219
Analyst targets$214 – $250
Standard DCF$136 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $181.37
Levered DCF$120 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $181.37
At own 5y-median P/E (36×)$177
At 5y P/E range (33–50×)$165 – $251
At sector P/E (45×)$221

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.