Cintas Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Cintas delivered an exceptional fiscal Q1 2027 (ended 31 Aug), with revenue of $3.01 billion up 10.9% YoY — the first $3 billion quarter — and EPS of $1.39 beating the $1.35 consensus, alongside raised FY2027 guidance and record margins (operating margin 23.1% in FY2026, up from 22.8% in FY2025).
The CEO's August 2026 purchase of 57,944 shares at $202.71 ($11.7M) is a meaningful insider vote of confidence. However, at $197.19 the stock trades at 38.2x earnings — a 30.3% premium to the peer median of 29.3x — and 27.3x EV/EBITDA, a 47.2% premium, leaving limited room for multiple compression even as growth accelerates. The smart money score of just 0.03 as of Q2 2026 and a 24-month net insider disposition of 49,877 shares temper enthusiasm at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 38.2x PE and 27.3x EV/EBITDA — 30% and 47% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in growth or margin trajectory could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Insider net selling over 24 months. Despite the CEO's August 2026 purchase, the 24-month net insider disposition of 49,877 shares (net value -$10.4M) suggests broader insider caution.
- Smart money apathy. Smart money score of 0.03 as of Q2 2026 is well below the 0.09 level seen in Q3 2024, indicating declining institutional conviction despite rising fund count.
- Revenue growth deceleration. FY2026 revenue growth of 8.9% was below the 12.2% and 8.9% rates seen in FY2023 and FY2024; if Q1 FY2027's 10.9% acceleration does not sustain, the premium multiple faces pressure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1 FY27 results · earnings vs estimates, 23 Sep · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on CTAS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 13.8% over twelve months, from $188.68 on 27 Oct 2025 to $214.80 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $225.93 on 26 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.3M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CTAS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.3B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $978.1M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $799.1M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $741.8M | 0.1% |
113 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 138 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$10.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CTAS
Orin answers questions about CTAS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 41.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 35.8×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 41.9×above usual | 35.8× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 7.38×above usual | 6.16× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.3×above usual | 23.0× | — |
| P/B | 16.5×above usual | 13.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $235 (from $222 to $250) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$235
$222 – $250 · +9% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 41.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (ARMK 38.0×, UNF 39.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTASCintas Corporation | $85B | 41.9× | 27.3× | 51.0% | 17.8% | 42% |
| ARMKAramark | $15B | 38.0× | 15.0× | 6.6% | 1.9% | 12% |
| UNFUniFirst Corporation | $5B | 39.7× | 15.6× | 36.6% | 4.3% | 5% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 41.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now41.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $135 a share — 37% below the $214.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $135 | 37% below $214.03 |
| Levered | $112 | 48% below $214.03 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.