Cintas Corporation CTAS
Cintas remains a best-in-class compounder — FY2026 (ended 2026-05-31) revenue of $11.26B grew 8.9% YoY, EPS of $4.91 rose 11.6%, and operating margin expanded to 23.1% from 22.8% with gross margin hitting a record 50.5% — but at $199.45 the stock trades at 40.1x earnings, a 27.3% premium to the peer median of 31.5x, and 27.5x EV/EBITDA, a 40.5% premium, leaving limited margin of safety for a business growing EPS ~12% annually. Smart money is only marginally constructive at 0.0286 as of Q2 2026, and while recent insider dispositions on August 10 were tax-withholding-related rather than discretionary, the 24-month net insider selling of 2.13M shares tempers enthusiasm.
The UniFirst acquisition adds optionality but also integration risk at a premium valuation.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 40.1x P/E and 27.5x EV/EBITDA — 27.3% and 40.5% above peer medians respectively — any growth deceleration could trigger multiple contraction with limited cushion.
- UniFirst integration risk. The pending UniFirst absorption introduces execution uncertainty and potential capital allocation strain while the stock already trades at a rich premium.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 2.13M shares over 24 months, even if recent transactions were largely tax-related, signals limited insider conviction at current levels.
- MACD deterioration. MACD histogram of -1.82 with the line below signal as of 2026-08-18 suggests near-term momentum weakness despite price holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 (period ended 2026-05-31) and derived_metrics · peer_relative as of latest data · technicals as of 2026-08-18 · smart_money as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on CTAS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-22 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CTAS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
110 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 134 Form 4 filings, net $6.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CTAS
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.0× | 35.6× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.4× | 22.7× | — |
| P/S | 7.06× | 5.44× | — |
| P/B | 15.5× | 12.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.10σ from its own mean).
17.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$231
$214 – $250 · +20% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTASCintas Corporation | $80B | 40.0× | 27.4× | 50.7% | 17.8% | 42% |
| CSXCSX Corporation | $91B | 28.3× | 16.3× | 54.9% | 22.2% | 24% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $84B | 32.7× | 18.6× | 53.2% | 13.8% | 13% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $78B | 24.6× | 18.8× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $86B | 24.6× | 26.4× | 36.7% | 14.3% | 27% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $93B | 70.1× | 32.7× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $65B | 35.1× | 19.2× | 59.6% | 21.3% | -21% |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $88B | 19.2× | 10.6× | 16.6% | 5.1% | 29% |
| VRTVertiv Holdings Co | $103B | 59.5× | 41.2× | 37.5% | 15.1% | 42% |
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $89B | 31.3× | 14.8× | 35.0% | 11.1% | 29% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $136 | $181.37 · −25% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $120 | $181.37 · −34% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.