Corteva, Inc. CTVA
Corteva's FY2025 results show genuine operational momentum — operating margin expanded to 0.1505 from 0.124, free cash flow reached $2.815B, and management raised 2026 guidance after a Q2 beat — but at a PE of 50.34 versus a peer median of 17.47, the stock trades at a premium that already discounts much of this improvement. The pending Oct. 1 separation into Vylor (seed) and a standalone crop protection entity could unlock sum-of-the-parts value, yet smart money has faded sharply (score 0.0093 as of 2026-06-30, down from 0.0891 the prior quarter) and 24-month insider net selling of $11.37M signals limited conviction from those closest to the business.
With the stock at $76.01, sitting right on its 200-day MA of $75.996 and below its 50-day MA of $81.55 with an RSI of 36.05, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. PE of 50.34 is 188% above the peer median of 17.47; any disappointment on separation terms or guidance could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Separation execution. The Oct. 1 split into Vylor and New Corteva introduces structural uncertainty, including debt allocation across entities and standalone cost structures.
- Crop Protection pricing. News coverage explicitly flags Crop Protection pricing pressure as a persistent risk even amid raised guidance.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score collapsed to 0.0093 as of 2026-06-30 from 0.0891 the prior quarter, suggesting large holders are reducing exposure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative · smart_money points. Orin's read on CTVA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CTVA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $3.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $1.9B | 0.4% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 99 Form 4 filings, net −$12.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CTVA
Orin answers questions about CTVA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 53.3× | 41.2× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4× | 14.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.02× | 2.34× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.67σ from its own mean).
7.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$95
$90 – $103 · +18% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | $54B | 53.3× | 17.4× | 48.5% | 5.7% | 4% |
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $64B | — | 62.5× | 32.1% | -0.4% | -0% |
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $29B | 12.0× | 16.9× | 28.2% | 36.8% | 23% |
| NUENucor Corporation | $56B | 19.7× | 10.8× | 15.5% | 8.0% | 14% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $32B | 28.8× | 14.2× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 170.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $71 | $75.66 · −6% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $153 | $75.66 · +102% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.