CVS Health Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CVS Health's operational turnaround is confirmed across H1 2026, with Q1 and Q2 diluted EPS of $2.30 and $2.31 respectively each surpassing the full-year FY2025 EPS of $1.39, and Q2 2026 operating income of $4.7B on revenue of $106.1B (up 7.3% YoY) representing a sharp recovery from Q3 2025's $3.2B operating loss.
The stock trades at a P/S of 0.285, a 16% discount to the peer median of 0.341, and sits above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while the P/E of 24.1 trades at a 27% premium to peers on depressed trailing earnings that are visibly inflecting higher. The main overhangs are $93.6B in total debt, net insider selling of $254M over 24 months, and the $315M DOJ opioid settlement, but rising smart money scores (0.04 as of 30 Jun, up from 0.012 a year earlier) and consistent EPS beats—including a 38% surprise in the most recent quarter—support continued upside.
What could go wrong
- Leverage. Total debt of $93.6B as of FY2025, up from $82.9B in FY2024, constrains financial flexibility and raises interest expense sensitivity.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $254M over 24 months with only 1 acquisition signal no internal conviction at current levels.
- Valuation premium on trailing earnings. P/E of 24.1 is 27% above the peer median of 19.0; if forward earnings fail to materialize, the premium could compress.
- Regulatory and legal. $315M DOJ opioid settlement and a pending fiduciary-duty investigation by Halper Sadeh LLC add legal uncertainty.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · FY25 fundamentals · results, quarter to 30 Sep 2025 · peer comparison. Orin's read on CVS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.5% over twelve months, from $82.45 on 27 Oct 2025 to $91.13 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $110.60 on 21 Jul 2026; the last close is 17.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 44.2M, on 27 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CVS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $12.7B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.6B | 0.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $7.8B | 0.9% |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% |
| Wellington Management Group | $3.5B | 0.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.5B | 0.4% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.5B | 0.3% |
134 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 96 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$254.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CVS
Orin answers questions about CVS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 9.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.2×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4×below usual | 17.2× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 0.25×below usual | 0.28× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5×below usual | 11.6× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×near usual | 1.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $111 (from $92 to $123) — 22% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$111
$92 – $123 · +22% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 9.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $104B | 9.4× | 8.5× | 14.2% | 2.6% | 14% |
| CICigna Corporation | $80B | 13.3× | 11.3× | 9.4% | 2.1% | 14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | $34B | 23.2× | 7.6× | 11.7% | 0.8% | 7% |
| ELVElevance Health Inc. | $91B | 18.0× | 12.6× | 36.6% | 2.5% | 12% |
| HUMHumana Inc. | $49B | 38.6× | 18.3× | 13.7% | 0.9% | 7% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $368B | 23.4× | 14.9× | 22.8% | 3.5% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 9.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now9.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $325 a share — 254% above the $91.71 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $325 | 254% above $91.71 |
| Levered | $230 | 151% above $91.71 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.