Chevron Corporation CVX
Chevron remains a hold as the stock trades at $203.05 with strong technical momentum above its 50-day ($186.01) and 200-day ($178.84) moving averages, supported by a P/E of 19.39 and EV/EBITDA of 7.76 that discount XOM by 8.1% and 21.7% respectively. However, FY2025 fundamentals deteriorated sharply with operating income falling to $16.7B from $29.1B in FY2024, EPS declining to $6.63 from $9.72, and total debt nearly doubling to $46.7B from $24.5B — likely tied to the Hess acquisition.
Smart money turned negative (score -0.2541 as of Q2 2026 from +0.2999 in Q1 2026), and insiders have net sold $685M of stock over 24 months, both of which temper enthusiasm despite positive production-growth narratives around Guyana and Iraq.
What could go wrong
- Earnings deterioration. FY2025 net income fell to $12.3B from $17.7B in FY2024, with EPS at $6.63 vs $9.72, and net income growth of -30.4% YoY. If oil prices normalize lower, earnings could compress further.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt nearly doubled to $46.7B in FY2025 from $24.5B in FY2024, constraining financial flexibility and increasing interest burden.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months insiders net sold 5.3M shares for $685M in value, with recent sales by the Chief Legal Officer and President of DM&C in August 2026.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score turned negative at -0.2541 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.2999 in Q1 2026, suggesting institutional positioning has weakened.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on CVX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CVX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $24.6B | 0.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $20.4B | 0.4% of fund |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $14.0B | 4.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.4B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $6.3B | 0.8% of fund |
195 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 360 Form 4 filings, net −$685.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CVX
Orin answers questions about CVX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.6× | 14.4× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9× | 6.1× | — |
| P/S | 1.96× | 1.44× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.07σ from its own mean).
10.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $16.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$217
$174 – $243 · +6% against today's price
- 34 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVXChevron Corporation | $409B | 19.6× | 7.9× | 31.0% | 9.9% | 11% |
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $668B | 20.8× | 9.7× | 25.1% | 9.1% | 13% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $174 | $192.58 · −10% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $155 | $192.58 · −19% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.