Chevron Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Chevron's Q2 2026 results confirmed a sharp earnings inflection, with revenue of $67.2B (+51.4% YoY) and EPS of $6.11 beating estimates by 9.2%, but the stock has already run to $224.98 with an RSI of 70.8, leaving little near-term margin of safety.
The Hess-driven recovery is real — FY2025 operating margin compressed to 9.0% with EPS down 31.8% to $6.63 and total debt nearly doubling to $40.8B — yet CVX still trades at a 6.7% P/E discount and 20.4% EV/EBITDA discount to XOM, which limits downside. Persistent insider selling (net -$660.8M over 24 months, zero open-market acquisitions) and cooling smart-money scores (0.09 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.24 in Q3 2025) argue against chasing the rally here.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 70.8 and price of $224.98 well above the 50-day MA of $207.13 and 200-day MA of $189.87 suggest the near-term move is extended and vulnerable to a pullback.
- Elevated leverage from Hess. Total debt surged to $40.8B in FY2025 from $24.5B in FY2024, and if Q2 2026's earnings strength does not persist across subsequent quarters, deleveraging could pressure capital returns.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders disposed 77 transactions with net shares of -3.68M and net value of -$660.8M, with zero open-market acquisitions — a consistent negative signal.
- Cooling institutional sentiment. Smart-money score declined to 0.09 as of Q2 2026 from 0.24 in Q3 2025, indicating reduced conviction among tracked funds despite a rising fund count.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 31 Jul · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CVX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 47.0% over twelve months, from $155.28 on 27 Oct 2025 to $228.23 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $233.21 on 23 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 47.3M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All CVX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $25.7B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $24.6B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $20.4B | 0.4% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $14.0B | 4.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.4B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.0B | 0.3% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $6.3B | 0.8% |
| Morgan Stanley | $6.0B | 0.3% |
| Bank of America | $4.5B | 0.3% |
| Norges Bank | $3.8B | 0.4% |
198 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 366 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$670.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 16 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CVX
Orin answers questions about CVX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 14.4×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.8×above usual | 14.4× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.16×above usual | 1.44× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6×above usual | 6.2× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×above usual | 1.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $214 (from $90 to $243) — 6% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$214
$90 – $243 · −6% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (XOM 23.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVXChevron Corporation | $451B | 21.8× | 8.6× | 31.0% | 9.9% | 11% |
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $740B | 23.2× | 10.7× | 25.1% | 9.1% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $169 a share — 26% below the $228.48 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $169 | 26% below $228.48 |
| Levered | $152 | 34% below $228.48 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.