Casella Waste Systems, Inc. CWST
Casella Waste Systems remains a hold following a Q2 2026 earnings beat ($0.40 vs. $0.27 consensus, up from $0.36 prior year) and a 16.9% revenue growth print that prompted a raised full-year revenue outlook, but the fundamental tension is unchanged: revenue grew from $889M in 2021 to $1.84B in 2025 while diluted EPS collapsed from $0.80 to $0.12, gross margin compressed from 22.85% to 17.06%, and total debt nearly doubled to $1.24B. At a P/E of 1002x and a P/S 67.5% above the peer median, the stock embeds a margin recovery that management only reaffirmed—not raised—on adjusted EBITDA and cash-flow guidance.
Insider net selling of $20.2M over 24 months, including Douglas Casella's August 2026 sales, and a smart money score near zero (0.0214 as of Q2 2026) temper enthusiasm despite the constructive technical setup (price above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages).
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Gross margin has declined every year from 22.85% in 2021 to 17.06% in 2025, and operating margin fell from 9.49% to 4.86% over the same period; if acquisitions continue diluting profitability, the valuation has no earnings support.
- Leverage and capex burden. Total debt rose from $616M in 2021 to $1.24B in 2025 while capex grew from $123M to $245M, squeezing FCF margin from 6.68% to 4.61%; rising rates or integration costs could further pressure free cash flow.
- Extreme valuation. At a P/E of 1002x and EV/EBITDA of 17.58 (56.5% above peer median), any disappointment in the pace of margin recovery could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Insider selling signal. Net insider dispositions of $20.2M over 24 months with 96 sales vs. 49 acquisitions, including the Vice Chairman's August 2026 sales near $91/share, suggest limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks via news snippet, 2026-08-06 · MarketBeat via news snippet, 2026-08-07 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal years 2021–2025 · derived_metrics, fiscal years 2021–2025. Orin's read on CWST; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CWST filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 7 Aug | Casella Waste Systems reported revenue of $543.7 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 16.8% year-over-year from $465.3 million in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 6 Aug | Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | read |
| 8-K/A | 20 Jul | Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 9 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 1 Jul | Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 8 Jun | Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 1 Jun | Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 27 May | Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $334.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $273.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $244.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $196.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $159.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $145.9M | 0.0% of fund |
63 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 146 Form 4 filings, net −$20.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CWST
Orin answers questions about CWST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.68× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.4× | — | — |
23.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$113
$104 – $122 · +36% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5B | — | 16.1× | 25.4% | 0.3% | 0% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | $7B | 18.0× | 17.4× | 46.2% | 17.9% | 13% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.4× | 11.3× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| KBRKBR, Inc. | $4B | 10.5× | 8.2× | 14.5% | 5.5% | 27% |
| SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4B | 25.2× | 10.3× | 35.1% | 3.4% | 10% |
| TKRThe Timken Company | $8B | 31.6× | 15.2× | 28.7% | 5.4% | 8% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.