Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Casella Waste Systems remains a hold: the company is delivering impressive top-line growth—FY2025 revenue of $1.837B up 18.0% YoY and Q2 2026 revenue of $543.7M up 16.9% YoY—but profitability is structurally eroding, with gross margin compressing from 22.9% in 2021 to 17.1% in 2025 and diluted EPS collapsing from $0.80 to $0.12 over the same period.
At a P/E of 944.2x versus a peer median of 32.4x, with total debt at $1.239B and persistent insider net selling of $24.7M over 24 months, the stock at $88.00 (as of 16 Oct) sits below both its 50-day ($88.41) and 200-day ($90.47) moving averages despite a modestly improving smart money score of 0.018 as of Q2 2026 13F data. The Hakes landfill permit expansion adding 5.8 million cubic yards of disposal capacity and seven consecutive earnings beats offer upside optionality, but the margin trajectory and leverage profile argue against conviction in either direction until Q3 2026 results on November 9, 2026 clarify whether profitability is stabilizing.
What could go wrong
- Margin deterioration persists. Gross margin has declined every year from 22.9% (2021) to 17.1% (2025) and operating margin has halved from 9.5% to 4.9%; Q1 2026 posted a net loss of $5.539M, suggesting the trend has not yet reversed.
- Extreme valuation on earnings. P/E of 944.2x versus peer median of 32.4x means any disappointment in the path to earnings normalization could trigger a sharp de-rating, even though P/S of 2.82x is below the peer median of 3.87x.
- Leverage and integration risk. Total debt nearly doubled from $665M in 2022 to $1.239B in 2025 while net income fell from $53.1M to $7.9M, raising questions about whether acquisition-driven revenue growth is creating shareholder value.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 83 dispositions with zero open-market acquisitions of common stock, netting -$237,647 shares worth -$24.7M; Vice Chairman Douglas Casella and Director Michael Burke continued selling into August–September 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CWST; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.5% over twelve months, from $88.85 on 27 Oct 2025 to $93.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $107.34 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 12.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.0M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CWST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $910.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $334.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $273.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $244.4M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $196.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $159.8M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $145.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $141.5M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $135.7M | 0.5% |
| Wellington Management Group | $125.3M | 0.0% |
64 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 134 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CWST
Orin answers questions about CWST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that its P/E says little (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 3.00× its yearly sales — below its usual level (3.77×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | n/m | — | 18.4× |
| P/S | 3.00×below usual | 3.77× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3×below usual | 20.5× | — |
| P/B | 3.8×below usual | 4.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 77.0× to 816× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $102 (from $95 to $106) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$102
$95 – $106 · +8% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Its own P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (RSG 33.4×, WM 30.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc. | $6B | n/m | 18.3× | 25.4% | 0.3% | 0% |
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $72B | 33.4× | 15.3× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $94B | 30.8× | 12.8× | 27.3% | 11.8% | 31% |
- CWST: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Its P/E now is not shown, and it has no fiscal year with a P/E to draw since its history starts.
- Nownot shown
- Now: not shown. Its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $158 a share — 67% above the $94.57 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $158 | 67% above $94.57 |
| Levered | $69 | 27% below $94.57 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.