Dominion Energy, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dominion Energy at $60.28 is deeply oversold (RSI 23.1) after falling roughly 10% from the prior hold call at $66.61, and now trades at a 10% P/E premium to the regulated-electric peer median (20.85x vs 18.95x) — a narrower premium than before.
FY2025 fundamentals were genuinely strong with 14.2% revenue growth, operating margin expansion to 26.7%, and EPS up 41.4% to $3.45, plus insiders cluster-bought at $62.95 in May 2026, but Q2 2026 net income fell to $340M from $760M a year earlier and free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$7.3B against $48.9B of total debt. With the dividend frozen and the pending NextEra merger as the dominant swing factor, the risk/reward stays balanced until regulatory clarity emerges.
What could go wrong
- NextEra merger blocked. A regulatory rejection or extended review of the pending NextEra acquisition would remove the primary near-term catalyst and could pressure the stock further from already oversold levels.
- Q2 2026 margin compression persists. Q2 2026 revenue grew 19.6% YoY to $4.56B but net income fell to $340M from $760M, signaling cost pressure or one-time charges that could continue into H2 2026.
- Structural negative FCF and high leverage. FY2025 free cash flow was -$7.28B with capital expenditure of $12.64B and total debt of $48.94B, limiting financial flexibility.
- Dividend frozen. The quarterly dividend has been held flat for years while billions are directed to offshore wind and data-center infrastructure, risking continued outflows from income-oriented holders.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 28 Sep · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 results. Orin's read on D; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 7.5% over twelve months, from $60.80 on 27 Oct 2025 to $65.36 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $71.69 on 16 Jul 2026; the last close is 8.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 40.1M, on 18 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All D filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $5.0B | 0.7% |
| BlackRock | $5.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.8B | 0.5% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.4B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $997.0M | 0.1% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 44 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $251K. Of the 44 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about D
Orin answers questions about D from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.7×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.6×above usual | 19.7× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 3.14×near usual | 3.13× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5×above usual | 12.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.0×above usual | 1.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $70.11 (from $62 to $80) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$70.11
$62 – $80 · +7% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $57B | 22.6× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $71B | 22.4× | 14.4× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $173B | 14.8× | 16.3× | 62.4% | 39.9% | 20% |
| PCGPG&E Corporation | $35B | 9.6× | 9.0× | 66.9% | 12.0% | 9% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.