Orin
DNYSE·Regulated Electric

Dominion Energy, Inc. D

Market cap $53.1BP/E 20.9× trailingGross margin 49.3%Reports Fri 30 Oct, before the open
$60.33
−0.07 (−0.12%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $55.85 – $72.99
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 25 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Dominion Energy at $66.61 trades at roughly an 11% premium to the regulated-electric peer median on P/E (23.0x vs 20.7x) and EV/EBITDA (15.2x vs 13.9x), with FY2025 free cash flow of -$7.3B against $48.9B of total debt and the proposed NextEra acquisition drawing regulatory opposition from Maine's governor over competition concerns. FY2025 results showed genuine improvement — revenue growth of 14.2%, operating margin expansion to 26.7%, and EPS of $3.45 up 41% YoY — and insiders cluster-bought at $62.95 in May 2026, but the smart-money score turned slightly negative at -0.0091 as of Q2 2026 and the stock sits below its 50-day MA of $69.13 with a bearish MACD histogram.

The merger outcome is the dominant swing factor; until regulatory clarity emerges, the risk/reward is balanced.

What could go wrong

  • Merger regulatory risk. Maine's governor has publicly opposed the NextEra-Dominion merger on competition grounds, and Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating whether shareholders are receiving fair deal terms.
  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $48.9B against stockholders' equity of $29.1B, with FY2025 free cash flow of -$7.3B and capex of -$12.6B, constrains financial flexibility.
  • Valuation premium with negative FCF. Trading at 11% above peer median P/E (23.0x vs 20.7x) and 9% above peer median EV/EBITDA (15.2x vs 13.9x) despite persistently negative free cash flow.
  • Technical deterioration. RSI at 35.9 approaching oversold, stock below 50-day MA of $69.13, and MACD histogram negative at -0.19, indicating ongoing near-term selling pressure.

What would change my mind

Merger regulatory clearance. NextEra-Dominion merger receives key regulatory approvals or antitrust clearance without material divestiture conditionsbullish
Merger blocked or delayed. Regulatory bodies or additional state opposition blocks or materially delays the NextEra acquisitionbearish
Free cash flow inflection. Quarterly capex declines or operating cash flow improves enough to narrow the FCF deficit toward break-evenbullish
Technical breakdown below 200-day MA. Stock closes below $63.87 (200-day MA) on sustained volume, invalidating the uptrendbearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · FY2025 fundamentals · derived_metrics FY2025 · insider transactions. Orin's read on D; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Capital Research Global Investors$5.0B0.7% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.9B0.1% of fund
State Street$3.5B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.1B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$2.8B0.5% of fund
Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/$1.4B0.4% of fund

104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 44 Form 4 filings, net $5.3M. Of the 44 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E20.9×18.7×25.9×
EV/EBITDA14.5×12.9×—
P/S2.90×3.13×—
P/B1.8×1.7×—

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.28σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$72

$66 – $80 · +19% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 12 buy or overweight
  • 19 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.0× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DDominion Energy, Inc.$53B20.9×14.5×49.3%13.9%9%
AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.$64B20.2×13.6×49.0%13.9%10%
EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.$38B16.8×9.9×76.0%12.5%9%
ETREntergy Corporation$46B24.8×13.7×38.9%13.5%10%
EXCExelon Corporation$41B14.7×10.2×24.5%11.0%10%
PCGPG&E Corporation$33B8.9×9.2×56.2%12.3%10%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated$33B16.5×13.2×85.4%16.0%12%
SRESempra$51B22.4×13.4×41.7%16.8%7%
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.$33B19.4×13.6×62.0%16.7%12%
XELXcel Energy Inc.$43B19.0×12.5×48.8%15.3%10%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 34.2×FY25 16.9×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$-121$66.72 · −281%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-528$66.72 · −892%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $60.33
52-week range$56 – $73
Analyst targets$66 – $80
Standard DCF$-121 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $66.72
Levered DCF$-528 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $66.72
At own 5y-median P/E (19×)$54
At 5y P/E range (17–42×)$48 – $123
At sector P/E (26×)$75

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.