Daktronics, Inc. DAKT
Daktronics' FY2026 recovery is genuine — revenue grew 10.9% to $838.7M with $0.92 diluted EPS versus a $0.21 loss in FY2025, and Q1 FY2027 extended the momentum with $0.40 EPS beating consensus by 15.4% on 7.1% revenue growth. However, free cash flow compressed to $34.3M (4.09% margin) from $78.2M (10.34% margin) the prior year, the stock at $19.36 trades below both its 50-day ($19.94) and 200-day ($20.58) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, and insiders were net sellers of 705K shares over the trailing 24 months.
At 20.8x P/E and 10.7x EV/EBITDA — roughly 27% and 29% below peer medians — downside appears limited, but uneven quarterly execution (Q3 FY2026 net income was only $3.0M on $181.9M revenue), deteriorating FCF, and soft technicals argue for patience rather than new exposure.
What could go wrong
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow fell to $34.3M in FY2026 from $78.2M in FY2025 despite higher revenue, compressing FCF margin to 4.09% from 10.34%.
- Weak technicals. Stock at $19.36 is below both 50-day ($19.94) and 200-day ($20.58) moving averages; MACD histogram is negative at -0.063 and RSI is 43.4.
- Insider selling. Insiders were net sellers of 705,334 shares worth $16.1M over the trailing 24 months, with 126 dispositions versus 105 acquisitions.
- Quarterly earnings volatility. Q3 FY2026 net income was only $3.0M on $181.9M revenue, and the quarter missed EPS estimates by 50%, highlighting execution inconsistency.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-05-02 · Quarterly results and earnings surprises, period ended 2026-08-01 · FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-05-02 · Peer relative comparison as of 2026-09-01. Orin's read on DAKT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DAKT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Earnest Partners | $60.3M | 0.2% of fund |
| Alta Fox Capital Management | $56.5M | 11.4% of fund |
| Progeny 3 | $53.7M | 2.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $33.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Breach Inlet Capital Management | $31.0M | 10.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $26.8M | 0.0% of fund |
47 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 246 Form 4 filings, net −$16.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DAKT
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.8× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.00× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.7× | — | — |
10.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$31
$29 – $33 · +76% against today's price
- 5 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAKTDaktronics, Inc. | $852M | 17.8× | 9.1× | 27.6% | 5.7% | 16% |
| ALNTAllient Inc. | $2B | 66.4× | 26.1× | 32.2% | 5.0% | 9% |
| LYTSLSI Industries Inc. | $743M | 29.2× | 27.7× | 25.1% | 3.3% | 8% |
| PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc. | $3B | 36.7× | 17.2× | 27.9% | 6.4% | 17% |
| SCSCScanSource, Inc. | $1B | 15.8× | 9.5× | 13.6% | 2.4% | 9% |
| SSYSStratasys Ltd. | $697M | — | — | 42.9% | -21.0% | -14% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.