Orin
DAKTNasdaq·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

Daktronics, Inc. DAKT

Market cap $852.2MP/E 17.8× trailingGross margin 27.6%
$17.65
−0.33 (−1.84%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $17.09 – $28.27
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 2 Sep · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Daktronics' FY2026 recovery is genuine — revenue grew 10.9% to $838.7M with $0.92 diluted EPS versus a $0.21 loss in FY2025, and Q1 FY2027 extended the momentum with $0.40 EPS beating consensus by 15.4% on 7.1% revenue growth. However, free cash flow compressed to $34.3M (4.09% margin) from $78.2M (10.34% margin) the prior year, the stock at $19.36 trades below both its 50-day ($19.94) and 200-day ($20.58) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, and insiders were net sellers of 705K shares over the trailing 24 months.

At 20.8x P/E and 10.7x EV/EBITDA — roughly 27% and 29% below peer medians — downside appears limited, but uneven quarterly execution (Q3 FY2026 net income was only $3.0M on $181.9M revenue), deteriorating FCF, and soft technicals argue for patience rather than new exposure.

What could go wrong

  • FCF deterioration. Free cash flow fell to $34.3M in FY2026 from $78.2M in FY2025 despite higher revenue, compressing FCF margin to 4.09% from 10.34%.
  • Weak technicals. Stock at $19.36 is below both 50-day ($19.94) and 200-day ($20.58) moving averages; MACD histogram is negative at -0.063 and RSI is 43.4.
  • Insider selling. Insiders were net sellers of 705,334 shares worth $16.1M over the trailing 24 months, with 126 dispositions versus 105 acquisitions.
  • Quarterly earnings volatility. Q3 FY2026 net income was only $3.0M on $181.9M revenue, and the quarter missed EPS estimates by 50%, highlighting execution inconsistency.

What would change my mind

Sustained FCF recovery. Quarterly free cash flow returns to positive territory and FCF margin approaches the FY2025 level of ~10%bullish
Technical breakout. Stock closes above the 200-day moving average of $20.58 on above-average volumebullish
Smart money exodus. 13F fund count drops below 30 and smart money score deteriorates beyond -0.01bearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-05-02 · Quarterly results and earnings surprises, period ended 2026-08-01 · FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-05-02 · Peer relative comparison as of 2026-09-01. Orin's read on DAKT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Earnest Partners$60.3M0.2% of fund
Alta Fox Capital Management$56.5M11.4% of fund
Progeny 3$53.7M2.8% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$33.9M0.0% of fund
Breach Inlet Capital Management$31.0M10.3% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$26.8M0.0% of fund

47 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 246 Form 4 filings, net −$16.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E17.8×53.3×
EV/EBITDA9.1×
P/S1.00×
P/B2.7×
What the price assumes

10.7%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

5 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$31

$29$33 · +76% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 5 buy or overweight
  • 0 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 32.9× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DAKTDaktronics, Inc.$852M17.8×9.1×27.6%5.7%16%
ALNTAllient Inc.$2B66.4×26.1×32.2%5.0%9%
LYTSLSI Industries Inc.$743M29.2×27.7×25.1%3.3%8%
PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.$3B36.7×17.2×27.9%6.4%17%
SCSCScanSource, Inc.$1B15.8×9.5×13.6%2.4%9%
SSYSStratasys Ltd.$697M42.9%-21.0%-14%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 22.4×FY26 21.2×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $17.65
52-week range$17 – $28
Analyst targets$29 – $33
At sector P/E (53×)$53

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.