Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL
Delta Air Lines is a buy at $80.07 after a sharp pullback into oversold territory (RSI 35.4), with FY2025 fundamentals showing EPS growth of 43.7% to $7.66, free cash flow of $3.84B, and total debt reduced to $21.1B from $22.8B. At 13.2x earnings the stock trades at a ~50% discount to the peer median PE of 26.5x and 8.1x EV/EBITDA versus the 16.1x median, while Berkshire Hathaway's newly disclosed 8.7% stake and an improving smart money score of 0.098 (up from -0.008) as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 underscore institutional conviction.
The gross margin compression to 22.8% from 26.9% reflects Iran-war fuel pressure, but airfares up 25.5% and management commentary on pricing power suggest revenue-side offsets are materializing.
What could go wrong
- Fuel cost escalation. Iran war has raged six months; gross margin already compressed to 22.84% in FY2025 from 26.86% in FY2024, and further jet fuel spikes could erode operating margin of 9.19%.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $80.07 is below its 50-day MA of $87.54 with MACD histogram at -0.88; a breach of the 200-day MA at $73.70 would signal deeper deterioration.
- Insider selling pattern. Recent insider activity is dominated by option exercises with immediate sales (e.g., EVP Sear exercised 40,460 shares at $51.23 and sold at $93.55 on 2026-08-05), not open-market accumulation.
- Competitive capacity. United's largest-ever international expansion and peer UAL trading cheaper at 10.3x PE and 7.1x EV/EBITDA could pressure Delta's relative positioning.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on DAL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DAL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $5.4B | 1.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
115 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 169 Form 4 filings, net $17.7B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DAL
Orin answers questions about DAL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.4× | 11.3× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2× | 7.7× | — |
| P/S | 0.79× | 0.64× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | 2.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.40σ from its own mean).
2.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$105
$85 – $125 · +30% against today's price
- 37 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | $54B | 13.4× | 8.2× | 27.3% | 5.8% | 19% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $56B | 35.9× | 24.1× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $60B | 32.4× | 21.0× | 39.4% | 9.9% | 49% |
| OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation | $26B | 17.5× | 14.1× | 30.2% | 10.2% | -27% |
| PAYXPaychex, Inc. | $37B | 20.7× | 12.4× | 74.4% | 27.4% | 47% |
| ROKRockwell Automation, Inc. | $48B | 40.5× | 28.9× | 54.5% | 13.4% | 33% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $36B | 10.3× | 7.1× | 65.1% | 5.6% | 23% |
| XYLXylem Inc. | $25B | 25.9× | 14.6× | 39.2% | 11.1% | 9% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 48.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-6 | $76.94 · −108% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $139 | $76.94 · +80% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.