Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Delta Air Lines remains a hold after Q3 2026 results confirmed a sharp divergence between robust demand and deteriorating profitability: revenue grew 21.1% YoY to $20.19B, but net income collapsed to $756M from $1.60B in Q2 2026 as surging fuel costs overwhelmed fare gains, prompting a full-year 2026 EPS guidance cut to $5.10–$5.60 — roughly 30% below FY2025's $7.66.
At $82.17 the stock trades at 13.5x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 24.3x, but that discount narrows to ~15x on the guided midpoint, and the first EPS miss in two years (actual $1.72 vs. estimate $1.77) plus 24 months of net insider selling totaling $130.6M with zero open-market purchases tempers enthusiasm. The demand backdrop is genuinely strong — December-quarter revenue is guided up ~20% with ~$2.5B in free cash flow and $2B+ in debt paydown — but until fuel costs stabilize or fares catch up, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Fuel cost escalation. Surging fuel prices outpaced fare gains in Q3 2026, cutting net income to $756M from $1.60B in Q2 2026 despite 21.1% revenue growth; sustained high fuel could keep margins compressed through 2027.
- Guidance cut credibility. Full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $5.10–$5.60 is well below FY2025's $7.66, and the Q3 EPS miss (actual $1.72 vs. estimate $1.77) was the first in two years, raising execution risk.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 1.74M shares worth $130.6M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Geopolitical overhang. News references the U.S.-Iran war as a sector headwind; further escalation could drive fuel higher and depress international demand, particularly on transatlantic routes.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · news, 9 Oct · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on DAL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 34.7% over twelve months, from $60.45 on 27 Oct 2025 to $81.45 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $93.66 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 13.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 28.4M, on 9 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All DAL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $5.4B | 1.8% |
| BlackRock | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $1.6B | 2.2% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.2B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.1B | 0.1% |
118 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 169 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$130.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DAL
Orin answers questions about DAL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.2× | — | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.75×above usual | 0.64× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3×above usual | 7.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×below usual | 2.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.6× to 88.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $104 (from $95 to $125) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$104
$95 – $125 · +27% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.2× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (LUV 20.6×, UAL 9.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | $54B | 16.2× | 9.3× | 29.9% | 4.6% | 15% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. | $21B | 20.6× | 8.1× | 55.7% | 3.3% | 14% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $34B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 65.7% | 5.5% | 22% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $122 a share — 52% above the $80.58 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $122 | 52% above $80.58 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.