DoorDash, Inc. DASH
DoorDash's FY2025 profitability inflection is undeniable — $935M net income on $13.72B revenue at 27.9% growth, with operating income swinging to +$723M and FCF of $2.17B — but the stock at $220.22 trades at 113.5x trailing earnings and 50.7x EV/EBITDA, a premium that demands flawless execution every quarter. Smart money has deteriorated sharply from a score of 0.7325 in Q4 2024 to 0.0675 as of Q2 2026, fund count has fallen from 66 to 61, and insiders have net sold $397M over 24 months with 495 dispositions against 110 acquisitions.
The expansion into retail partnerships (Gap, Barnes & Noble, Kohl's) is encouraging for the platform thesis, but with RSI at 67.9 and the price 17% above its 50-day MA, momentum is stretched and the risk/reward is balanced rather than attractive.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 113.5x PE and 50.7x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 8.6x and 5.9x respectively, any growth deceleration or margin miss could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Smart money exodus. Smart money score collapsed from 0.7325 (Q4 2024) to 0.0675 (Q2 2026) and fund count dropped from 66 to 61, signaling institutional conviction is fading at current levels.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 9.3M shares worth $397M, with 495 dispositions versus 110 acquisitions; the CFO exercised and sold shares on 2026-08-13 at $213.67.
- Leverage increase. Total debt jumped from $536M in FY2024 to $3.29B in FY2025, a six-fold increase that raises financial risk if growth or margins disappoint.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · peer_relative composite · smart_money 13F composite, Q2 2026 · insider transaction summary, 24-month window. Orin's read on DASH; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DASH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $2.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
109 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 664 Form 4 filings, net −$463.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 32 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DASH
Orin answers questions about DASH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 114.4× | — | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 51.2× | — | — |
| P/S | 6.09× | 6.44× | — |
| P/B | 9.7× | 8.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.08σ from its own mean).
16.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$249
$190 – $350 · +30% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASHDoorDash, Inc. | $97B | 114.4× | 51.2× | 51.4% | 5.3% | 8% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $95B | 8.7× | 5.2× | 69.4% | 9.0% | 12% |
| NBISNebius Group N.V. | $51B | — | 55.0× | 58.6% | 4.5% | 1% |
| TAT&T Inc. | $179B | 8.6× | 6.0× | 59.7% | 16.9% | 19% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1223.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $165 | $152.62 · +8% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $150 | $152.62 · −2% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.