DoorDash, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
DoorDash's growth and profitability inflection remain genuinely impressive — FY2025 revenue reached $13.72B at 27.9% YoY growth with $935M net income and a 15.9% FCF margin, and Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to $4.45B at 35.6% YoY with $451M operating income — but the stock at $196.50 trades at 101.3x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 15.4x, a premium that demands flawless execution.
The legal overhang is real: a $131.5M settlement was agreed on September 22, 2026, and multiple law firms are investigating fiduciary duty breaches, while insiders have net sold $472M in shares over 24 months with 486 dispositions against just 13 acquisitions. Technicals have stabilized with RSI at 50.8 and a positive MACD histogram of 1.43, but price remains below the 50-day MA of $206.24, and smart money is weak at 0.04 with a declining fund count. The risk/reward is balanced enough to wait for Q3 2026 results on November 4 before committing.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation premium. P/E of 101.3x vs peer median 15.4x (556% premium) and EV/EBITDA of 45.2x vs 19.4x leave no margin for any growth deceleration or margin miss.
- Legal and governance overhang. DoorDash agreed to a $131.5M settlement on September 22, 2026, and multiple law firms (Scott+Scott, SBS Law) are investigating directors and officers for breach of fiduciary duties.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net disposed 2.13M shares worth $472M, with 486 dispositions versus only 13 acquisitions — no meaningful insider buying despite the growth story.
- Debt expansion. Total debt jumped from $536M in FY2024 to $3.29B in FY2025, a sixfold increase that could pressure future free cash flow if rates remain elevated.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison, 9 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on DASH; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 35.2% over twelve months, from $263.35 on 27 Oct 2025 to $170.56 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $266.06 on 29 Oct 2025; the last close is 35.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.4M, on 6 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DASH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.7B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.4B | 0.2% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.0B | 0.3% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.9B | 0.2% |
112 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 702 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$472.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 34 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DASH
Orin answers questions about DASH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 87.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Communication Services company on the NASDAQ is at 18.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 87.9× | — | 18.9× |
| P/S | 4.65×below usual | 6.44× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.9×below usual | 74.0× | — |
| P/B | 7.5×below usual | 8.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 103× to 559× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $253 (from $190 to $350) — 48% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$253
$190 – $350 · +48% against the last close
- 26 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 87.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (UBER 40.5×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASHDoorDash, Inc. | $74B | 87.9× | 38.9× | 51.4% | 5.3% | 8% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $140B | 40.5× | 24.2× | 43.2% | 6.1% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 87.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now87.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $146 a share — 16% below the $173.09 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $146 | 16% below $173.09 |
| Levered | $135 | 22% below $173.09 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.