Orin
DCINYSE·Industrial - Machinery

Donaldson Company, Inc. DCI

Market cap $10.0BP/E 22.1× trailingGross margin 34.6%
$86.46
−0.28 (−0.32%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $79.42 – $112.84
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 26 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Donaldson just reported record FY2026 results with full-year GAAP net earnings of $453.8M (up from $367.0M in FY2025) and EPS of $3.85 (up from $3.05), decisively reversing the prior year's 11.35% net income decline and validating the Facet Filtration acquisition thesis. The stock trades at a 24.1% P/E discount to the industrial-machinery peer median (23.79x vs. 31.34x) and a modest EV/EBITDA discount (17.23x vs. 17.99x), leaving room for multiple expansion alongside earnings growth.

Net insider buying of roughly 242K shares over 24 months, a new BlackRock 10.30% stake, and an expanding institutional base (51 funds as of 2026-06-30 vs. 42 a year earlier) reinforce the constructive setup. With the earnings inflection now confirmed, the risk/reward favors accumulation.

What could go wrong

  • Industrial Solutions weakness. Zacks noted persistent headwinds in Industrial Solutions despite Mobile Solutions and Life Sciences growth; a prolonged downturn in that segment could cap margin expansion.
  • Near-term technical softness. MACD histogram is negative at -0.68 and RSI is neutral at 48.7, suggesting the stock may need to consolidate near the $93 level before extending gains.
  • Integration risk from acquisitions. The Facet Filtration acquisition is a key growth driver but integration costs or execution missteps could pressure operating margin, which held at 15.1% in FY2025.
  • Cyclicality in Engine Products. Revenue growth slowed to 2.92% in FY2025 from 4.53% in FY2024, and any further deceleration in heavy-duty engine demand could weigh on the aftermarket-driven replacement cycle.

What would change my mind

FY2027 guidance beat. Management issues FY2027 revenue and EPS guidance above consensus at the next earnings call or investor daybullish
Operating margin compression. Quarterly operating margin falls below the 15.1% FY2025 level for two consecutive quartersbearish
Insider selling reversal. Insiders shift to net selling over a 6-month window after sustained net buying of 242K shares over 24 monthsbearish
P/E re-rating to peer median. Stock P/E compresses toward or below 20x on weaker-than-expected quarterly results, widening the discount beyond 24%bearish

Where this comes from: Business Wire earnings release 2026-08-26 · peer_relative composite · insider summary · Defense World 2026-08-22 citing 13F filing. Orin's read on DCI; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$585.6M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$471.3M0.0% of fund
State Street$451.6M0.0% of fund
Fmr$353.0M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$280.2M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$224.9M0.0% of fund

70 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 231 Form 4 filings, net $5.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E22.1×44.5×
EV/EBITDA17.9×
P/S2.59×
P/B5.7×
What the price assumes

10.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

14 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$97

$91$105 · +12% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 5 buy or overweight
  • 6 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 30.5× of 10 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.$10B22.1×17.9×34.6%11.7%28%
AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.$12B30.1×23.0×30.3%8.3%22%
AOSA. O. Smith Corporation$8B16.1×11.6×38.6%13.1%27%
CNMCore & Main, Inc.$8B17.5×10.9×27.0%6.0%23%
CRCrane Company$12B35.3×22.5×41.7%13.0%16%
FLSFlowserve Corporation$10B26.8×15.7×35.1%8.0%17%
GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.$12B45.2×23.2×39.5%5.8%10%
POOLPool Corporation$6B15.3×12.8×29.6%7.4%32%
RRXRegal Rexnord Corporation$10B31.2×12.0×37.8%5.3%5%
SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.$9B30.8×17.1×40.2%11.3%12%
WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.$12B31.2×19.3×48.8%14.3%19%

The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 22.3×FY26 24.0×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $86.46
52-week range$79 – $113
Analyst targets$91 – $105
At sector P/E (45×)$175

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.