Ducommun Incorporated DCO
Ducommun's Q2 2026 results—$1.18 EPS beating $0.94 consensus with record revenue, gross margin, and all-time-high remaining performance obligations—confirm the operating turnaround is genuine, and the upcoming September 17 Investor Day could provide further catalyst. However, the stock at $200.16 trades at 3.50x sales (a 102% premium to the 1.73x peer median) and 564x EV/EBITDA versus a 16.7x peer median, while FY2025 still produced a -$37.4M net loss and -$48.6M free cash flow with total debt at $345.8M.
CEO Stephen Oswald has been consistently selling in August 2026 at prices near $195–$207, with 24-month net insider value of -$49.4M, which tempers enthusiasm at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation stretched vs peers. P/S of 3.50x is a 102% premium to the 1.73x peer median; EV/EBITDA of 564x dwarfs the 16.7x peer median, leaving no margin of safety if growth disappoints.
- Persistent cash burn and leverage. FY2025 free cash flow was -$48.6M and total debt rose to $345.8M from $272.1M in FY2024, despite revenue growing to $824.8M.
- Insider selling acceleration. CEO Oswald sold shares on multiple dates in August 2026 at $194.85–$206.98; 24-month net insider transaction value is -$49.4M across 95 dispositions versus 52 acquisitions.
- Second-half growth normalization. Management guided to lower growth rates in H2 2026 after pulling forward production into H1, which could pressure the multiple if revenue decelerates.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-06 · GlobeNewsWire press release, 2026-08-06 · FMP fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · FMP fundamentals, FY2025 and FY2024. Orin's read on DCO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DCO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $175.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $143.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $116.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $64.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Brown Advisory | $50.9M | 0.1% of fund |
| Moore Capital Management | $44.2M | 0.7% of fund |
52 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 140 Form 4 filings, net −$49.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DCO
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 493.4× | — | — |
| P/S | 3.01× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.8× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$192
$175 – $209 · +11% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCODucommun Incorporated | $3B | — | 493.4× | 27.2% | -2.9% | -4% |
| JBIJanus International Group, Inc. | $581M | 17.6× | 2.5× | 34.8% | 3.7% | 6% |
| NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1B | 29.7× | 23.3× | 59.2% | 21.3% | 24% |
| WLDNWilldan Group, Inc. | $1B | 18.4× | 16.1× | 37.8% | 8.8% | 21% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.