DuPont de Nemours, Inc. DD
DuPont's post-separation narrative is credible but not yet fully proven in the annual financials: FY2025 revenue fell 44.7% to $6.849B with a net loss of $779M, even as operating income held at $860M and free cash flow remained solid at $1.079B. The stock trades at 301.8x trailing earnings — distorted by the transition year but still demanding — while EV/EBITDA at 15.1x is roughly in line with the peer median of 15.3x.
Q2 2026 earnings commentary about raised guidance and faster second-half growth, plus court approval of the $2.5B+ PFAS settlement, are genuine positives, but the stock has pulled back below its 50-day MA ($139.79 vs. $138.81 close as of 2026-08-18) with a slightly negative MACD histogram, and insider activity over 24 months shows net selling of $11.6M. The growth thesis needs another quarter of clean post-separation earnings to justify accumulation at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Earnings distortion risk. FY2025 net loss of $779M and EPS of -$5.58 make the 301.8x trailing PE unreliable; if post-separation operating leverage fails to materialize, the valuation has no earnings support.
- Insider distribution. Over 24 months, insiders net acquired 384,269 shares but net sold $11.6M in value, with recent transactions dominated by code F (tax withholding) and S (sale) dispositions by the CEO and other officers.
- Smart money apathy. As of 2026-06-30, the smart money score is -0.0015 with only 1 fund reporting, down from 60 funds at 0.0223 the prior quarter — institutional conviction is flat at best.
- Technical deterioration. Price at $138.81 is below the 50-day MA of $139.79 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.088, suggesting near-term momentum has faded since the early-August rally to $147.37.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual · FMP FY2025 annual · peer_relative. Orin's read on DD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q1 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $884.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $856.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $546.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $507.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $373.3M | 0.0% of fund |
96 filers · quarter ended Q1 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 111 Form 4 filings, net −$11.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 283.2× | — | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3× | 9.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.13× | 1.20× | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | 0.6× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+14.79σ from its own mean).
4.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$97
$53 – $178 · −26% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $18B | 283.2× | 14.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | $13B | 225.5× | 10.7× | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2% |
| CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $18B | 8.8× | 4.9× | 42.5% | 27.1% | 40% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $21B | — | 16.3× | 9.8% | -2.9% | -7% |
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $22B | 78.8× | 18.6× | 37.5% | 2.9% | 2% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $19B | — | 16.4× | 13.2% | -1.1% | -3% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 19.0× | 11.4× | 41.4% | 8.4% | 21% |
| RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 26.9% | 5.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1170.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $19 | $45.70 · −58% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $11 | $45.70 · −77% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.