DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
DuPont's post-separation franchise is showing genuine sequential improvement — Q2 2026 revenue rose to $1.819B from $1.681B in Q1 2026, with a positive earnings surprise of $1.88 actual vs. $1.76 estimated — and EV/EBITDA at 14.42x is roughly in line with the peer median of 14.11x.
However, the stock at $131.71 trades below both its 50-day ($136.21) and 200-day ($137.46) moving averages as of 25 Sep, FY2025 still carried a net loss of $779M on revenue that fell 44.7%, and multiple 13F filers have recently trimmed positions. The secular growth thesis in electronics, water, and healthcare is credible, but another quarter of clean post-separation financials is needed before accumulation at these levels is justified.
What could go wrong
- PFAS litigation overhang. A federal judge ruled on 15 Sep that DuPont must face a Connecticut firefighters' lawsuit over toxic 'forever chemicals' in protective gear, keeping litigation risk alive.
- Persistent YoY revenue decline. Q2 2026 revenue was down 44.2% YoY and Q1 2026 down 45.2% YoY, reflecting the separation base effect; comparisons will not normalize until Q4 2026.
- Institutional outflows. Recent 13F filings show Squarepoint Ops cut its stake by 98.5%, Corient Private Wealth by 66.8%, and Integrated Wealth Concepts by 65.3% as of the quarter ended 30 Jun.
- Distorted valuation. Trailing PE of 286.3x reflects the FY2025 net loss of $779M; while EV/EBITDA at 14.42x is near the peer median, the earnings base must stabilize to validate the multiple.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 4 Aug · peer comparison · technicals, 25 Sep. Orin's read on DD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 34.8% over twelve months, from $102.12 on 27 Oct 2025 to $137.67 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $154.59 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 10.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.5M, on 31 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $868.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $514.4M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $506.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $368.3M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $278.3M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $217.3M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $205.8M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $176.3M | 0.0% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 111 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$6.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 299× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 299× | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 2.25×above usual | 1.20× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3×above usual | 9.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.4×above usual | 0.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 2.5× to 34.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $135 (from $53 to $172) — 2% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$135
$53 – $172 · −2% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 299× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $19B | 299× | 13.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| AVNTAvient Corporation | $4B | 23.0× | 10.9× | 32.1% | 5.3% | 8% |
| CECelanese Corporation | $5B | lost money | 42.3× | 20.2% | −12.0% | −29% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $24B | lost money | 11.2× | 11.1% | −1.9% | −5% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| ESIElement Solutions Inc | $9B | 41.4× | 22.3× | 36.6% | 5.9% | 7% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $22B | lost money | 17.7× | 13.2% | −1.1% | −3% |
| MMM3M Company | $88B | 25.4× | 16.1× | 39.5% | 14.0% | 94% |
- CE, DOW, LYB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 299× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now299×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $51 a share — 63% below the $137.91 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $51 | 63% below $137.91 |
| Levered | $27 | 80% below $137.91 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.