Deere & Company DE
Deere's Q3 FY2026 beat-and-raise — revenue of $12.61 billion versus $10.81 billion estimated — signals that construction and forestry strength is partially offsetting the prolonged ag-cycle downturn, and technicals have turned constructive with price at $630.33 above both the 50-day ($610.69) and 200-day ($563.02) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram of +1.64. However, the stock trades at a P/E of 34.94x, a 32.7% premium to the peer median of 26.33x, despite two consecutive years of declining earnings (FY2025 EPS of $18.50, down 27.8% YoY, and FY2024 EPS of $25.62, down 26.0% YoY).
Smart money has improved from a score of -0.16 in Q3 2025 to +0.24 as of Q2 2026, but insider activity shows net selling of $11.6 million over 24 months and no cluster buying. The post-earnings rally prices in a recovery that FY2025 fundamentals do not yet confirm, making this a hold until the ag cycle shows durable improvement.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At a P/E of 34.94x versus a peer median of 26.33x and EV/EBITDA of 20.29x versus 16.72x, any disappointment in the ag recovery narrative could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Ag-cycle prolongation. FY2025 revenue fell 11.6% to $44.67B and net income dropped 29.2% to $5.03B; if farm equipment demand does not recover in FY2026, the beat-and-raise momentum stalls.
- UAW labor dispute. UAW workers rejected Deere's contract extension offer in August 2026, setting up a 2027 bargaining battle that could disrupt production.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $11.6 million in value across 56 dispositions versus 41 acquisitions, with no cluster buying signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat news article, 2026-08-24 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on DE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $7.3B | 0.9% of fund |
| State Street | $6.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $5.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $4.8B | 0.5% of fund |
| Fmr | $4.8B | 0.2% of fund |
127 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 111 Form 4 filings, net −$14.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 21 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DE
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.3× | 16.9× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.2× | 13.9× | — |
| P/S | 4.02× | 2.35× | — |
| P/B | 6.8× | 5.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.74σ from its own mean).
22.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$731
$570 – $813 · +4% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEDeere & Company | $192B | 39.3× | 22.2× | 35.7% | 10.2% | 18% |
| CATCaterpillar Inc. | $374B | 34.8× | 23.7× | 33.9% | 14.5% | 54% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | $67B | 8.2× | 7.4× | 36.6% | 22.7% | 42% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $59B | 23.5× | 19.1× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| UNPUnion Pacific Corporation | $164B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 45.5% | 28.8% | 39% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 67.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $209 | $573.66 · −64% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $31 | $573.66 · −95% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.