Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Deckers trades at 11.74x trailing earnings and 7.30x EV/EBITDA — roughly 29% and 40% below peer medians — despite generating 57.7% gross margins, 20.1% FCF margins, and $1.097B in free cash flow for FY2026 (ended 31 Mar).
Revenue growth is decelerating (Q1 FY2027 at 5.7% YoY versus 9.8% for the full prior year), and smart money has retreated to a near-zero score of 0.00 as of 30 Jun, but the stock at $84.27 sits 16% below its 200-day MA of $100.69 with an RSI of 57.08, pricing in a far worse scenario than the fundamentals support. Eight consecutive earnings beats (including a 6.8% surprise in the most recent quarter), a debt-light balance sheet ($375M debt against $2.5B equity), and aggressive share repurchases ($1.075B in FY2026 per recent news) reinforce an asymmetric risk/reward skewed to the upside.
What could go wrong
- Growth deceleration. Q1 FY2027 revenue growth of 5.7% YoY is the slowest in recent quarters, down from 16.9% in Q1 FY2026; if Hoka momentum fades or UGG softens, the premium multiple compresses further.
- Smart money exodus. SM score has declined from 0.05 in Sep 2024 to 0.00 as of 30 Jun, suggesting institutional conviction is fading even as fund count rose to 60.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months insiders net disposed 15,571 shares worth $1.68M; recent September 2026 acquisitions were small grant-style transactions (535 shares each), not meaningful open-market buys.
- PS premium vs peer. PS ratio of 2.04x is 82.5% above the peer median of 1.12x, meaning the market still prices in brand premium that could deflate if growth continues to slow.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY26 fundamentals · Q1 FY27 results and fundamentals · 13F holdings. Orin's read on DECK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 11.0% over twelve months, from $90.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $80.54 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $120.94 on 24 Feb 2026; the last close is 33.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.8M, on 30 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DECK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $911.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $627.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $589.9M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $524.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $424.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $306.1M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $269.9M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $242.9M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $211.4M | 0.2% |
89 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 124 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DECK
Orin answers questions about DECK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.6×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.7×below usual | 17.6× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 1.97×below usual | 3.29× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2×below usual | 11.7× | — |
| P/B | 4.7×below usual | 6.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $101 (from $70 to $137) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$101
$70 – $137 · +26% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (NKE 18.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | $11B | 10.7× | 7.2× | 58.9% | 19.0% | 44% |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $56B | 18.0× | 13.1× | 43.1% | 6.7% | 21% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $165 a share — 107% above the $79.48 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $165 | 107% above $79.48 |
| Levered | $230 | 190% above $79.48 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.