Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK
Deckers trades at just 13.2x trailing earnings and 8.3x EV/EBITDA — roughly 25% and 23% below peer medians — despite growing FY2026 revenue 9.7% to $5.47B and EPS 10.9% to $7.02, supported by $1.10B in free cash flow and a debt-light balance sheet ($375M debt against $2.5B equity). The stock has been dragged down with the broader footwear selloff (On Holding's 20% plunge, sector-wide weakness) and now sits below both its 50-day ($103.4) and 200-day ($102.1) moving averages with an RSI of 37.5, but the fundamental picture — 57.7% gross margins, double-digit EPS growth, and a sub-14x multiple — does not reflect a deteriorating business.
At $93.09, the market is pricing in tariff and brand-concentration risks that are real but already well-discounted, making the risk/reward asymmetric to the upside.
What could go wrong
- Tariff/freight cost pressure. News flow explicitly flags tariffs as a key risk; gross margin already flat at 57.7% in FY2026 vs 57.8% in FY2025, suggesting limited room to absorb further cost inflation without compression.
- Brand concentration. Growth outlook rests heavily on HOKA and UGG; any demand softening or fashion-cycle reversal in either brand would materially impact the $5.47B revenue base.
- Smart money exodus. Smart money score declined from 0.0265 in Dec 2024 to 0.0029 in June 2026, with fund count dropping from 55 to 51, indicating institutional positioning is fading.
- Sector contagion. Footwear peers are under pressure — On Holding plunged 20% on weak sales and slashed guidance — creating a negative sentiment overhang that could persist regardless of DECK-specific fundamentals.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025. Orin's read on DECK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DECK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $911.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $627.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $589.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $524.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $424.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $306.1M | 0.0% of fund |
86 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 124 Form 4 filings, net −$1.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DECK
Orin answers questions about DECK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.1× | 17.6× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9× | 11.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.94× | 3.29× | — |
| P/B | 4.7× | 6.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.52σ from its own mean).
-2.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$117
$70 – $145 · +49% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | $11B | 11.1× | 6.9× | 57.8% | 18.4% | 41% |
| BALLBall Corporation | $15B | 16.1× | 10.2× | 16.4% | 6.6% | 17% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $159 | $110.99 · +43% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $240 | $110.99 · +117% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.