Dell Technologies Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dell's Q2 FY2027 revenue surged 57.7% YoY to $47.0B with a 43% EPS beat, and the stock's roughly 20% pullback this week has reset the entry to a more attractive level with RSI at 33.2 and price trading below the 50-day MA of $513.26.
A record AI server backlog and FY2026 operating-margin expansion to 7.4% underpin the growth narrative, while the 18.8% FY2026 revenue growth and $8.55B in free cash flow validate cash generation. The principal concerns are gross-margin compression from 23.8% to 20.0% over two years and $3.55B in net insider selling over 24 months, but the combination of accelerating top-line momentum, oversold technicals, and a PS multiple of 1.90x versus a peer median of 3.17x supports accumulation at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin contracted from 23.8% in FY2024 to 20.0% in FY2026; if higher component costs (e.g., memory) persist, profitability could deteriorate further despite revenue growth.
- Heavy insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders disposed a net 11.85M shares worth $3.55B with zero acquisitions, predominantly Silver Lake entities—persistent selling could cap upside.
- Growth-quality debate. Analysts cited in recent coverage suggest revenue growth may be driven by memory-price inflation rather than durable enterprise AI demand, which would undermine the re-rating thesis.
- AI financing contagion. A broader hardware-sector selloff tied to worries about how AI infrastructure gets financed has already pressured HPE, SMCI, and DELL in the same session.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · earnings vs estimates, 1 Sep · technicals, 16 Oct · fundamentals. Orin's read on DELL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 209% over twelve months, from $162.19 on 27 Oct 2025 to $501.57 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $588.40 on 17 Sep 2026; the last close is 14.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 41.8M, on 29 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DELL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.2B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $5.9B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $4.7B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.3B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $2.4B | 0.2% |
134 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 3166 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.6B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 31 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DELL
Orin answers questions about DELL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 28.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 12.8×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.7×above usual | 12.8× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 2.11×above usual | 0.67× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.6×above usual | 8.1× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $565 (from $289 to $735) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$565
$289 – $735 · +13% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 28.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELLDell Technologies Inc. | $319B | 28.7× | 18.6× | 19.8% | 7.5% | n/m |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $236B | 58.3× | 45.9× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $81B | 30.2× | 15.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| HPQHP Inc. | $30B | 12.7× | 8.8× | 19.8% | 4.1% | n/m |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $237B | 21.0× | 16.6× | 58.0% | 16.0% | 33% |
| NTAPNetApp, Inc. | $45B | 31.7× | 21.3× | 70.6% | 19.2% | 114% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $23B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $143B | 13.3× | 22.7× | 52.6% | 69.2% | 114% |
- DELL, HPQ: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 28.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now28.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $98 a share — 81% below the $504.30 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $98 | 81% below $504.30 |
| Levered | $68 | 87% below $504.30 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.