Orin
DELLNYSE·Computer Hardware

Dell Technologies Inc. DELL

Market cap $364.1BP/E 31.4× trailingGross margin 19.8%
$549.83
+0.91 (+0.17%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $110.22 – $595.51
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 1 Sep · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

DELL remains a buy after delivering a 43% EPS beat ($7.04 actual vs $4.91 estimate) in Q2 FY2027, with revenue growing 57.7% YoY to $47.0B as AI server demand accelerates. The stock trades at a 20.7% discount to the peer median PE of 41.9x despite record results, while operating margin expanded to 7.4% in FY2026 from 6.1% in FY2024 and FCF reached $8.5B.

Gross margin compression from 23.8% to 20.0% over two years and $2.55B in net insider selling over 24 months warrant monitoring, but the combination of below-peer valuation, surging AI-driven revenue growth, and expanding operating profitability supports accumulation.

What could go wrong

  • Gross margin compression. Gross margin declined from 23.8% in FY2024 to 20.0% in FY2026, suggesting AI server mix is pressuring unit economics at the gross level even as operating leverage improves.
  • Heavy insider selling. Insiders net sold $2.55B over 24 months with 1,854 dispositions versus 156 acquisitions, signaling potential concern about valuation or growth sustainability.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $24.6B in FY2025 to $31.5B in FY2026 while stockholders equity remains negative at -$2.5B, increasing financial risk.
  • Short-term technical weakness. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $434.22 with a negative MACD histogram of -3.97 and RSI at 44.8, suggesting near-term momentum has cooled after a significant run-up from the 200-day MA of $247.74.

What would change my mind

AI server backlog commentary. If management signals AI server backlog growth is decelerating or orders are being pushed outbearish
Gross margin stabilization. If gross margins stabilize at or above 20% with continued revenue growth accelerationbullish
Insider sentiment shift. If insider net selling slows meaningfully or reverses to net buyingbullish
Valuation gap closure. If DELL PE revalues toward the peer median of 41.9x without commensurate earnings growthbearish

Where this comes from: earnings_surprises (period_end 2026-09-01) · quarterly_results (fiscal_year 2027, Q2) · peer_relative · derived_metrics. Orin's read on DELL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$8.2B0.2% of fund
State Street$5.9B0.2% of fund
Bank Of America /De/$4.7B0.3% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$4.3B0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.3B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$3.3B0.2% of fund

131 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 2981 Form 4 filings, net −$3.4B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 37 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E31.4×12.8×53.3×
EV/EBITDA21.1×8.1×
P/S2.41×0.67×

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.88σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

18.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $8.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

45 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$563

$289$735 · +2% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 25 buy or overweight
  • 18 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 45.5× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DELLDell Technologies Inc.$365B31.4×21.1×19.8%7.5%-575%
ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.$188B45.5×29.8×65.8%29.8%12%
CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.$85B61.1×39.5×88.5%23.6%23%
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.$76B35.9×22.4×50.0%17.4%86%
STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc$207B63.5×49.2×45.6%26.1%348%
WDCWestern Digital Corporation$163B17.4×18.7×48.9%72.9%119%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY20 3.9×FY26 12.8×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$113$378.98 · −70%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$79$378.98 · −79%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $549.83
52-week range$110 – $596
Analyst targets$289 – $735
Standard DCF$113 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $378.98
Levered DCF$79 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $378.98
At own 5y-median P/E (13×)$223
At 5y P/E range (8–19×)$135 – $328
At sector P/E (53×)$932

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.