Dollar General Corporation DG
Dollar General's turnaround is accelerating — FY2025 EPS grew 34% to $6.85 on 5.2% revenue growth, and management just delivered a Q2 beat with a raised full-year outlook that lifted shares roughly 5% on August 27. Free cash flow surged to $2.39B and total debt was trimmed to $15.72B from $17.46B the prior year, while new initiatives — a 40% expansion of $1 items and a loyalty program pilot — add incremental growth optionality into 2027.
Operating margins at 5.16% remain well below the 9.41% FY2021 peak and the stock's EV/EBITDA of 12.90 trades ~20% above the peer median, but the confirmed recovery trajectory, reasonable 16.29x P/E, and continued deleveraging warrant a constructive stance as the path toward mid-cycle profitability becomes more credible.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. Operating margin at 5.16% is roughly half the 9.41% posted in FY2021; if the recovery plateaus before reaching mid-cycle levels, the premium EV/EBITDA multiple becomes harder to justify.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $15.72B against stockholders' equity of $8.51B constrains financial flexibility and heightens sensitivity to interest rate movements.
- Consumer headwinds. Dollar General's core customer is highly budget-sensitive; any macro deterioration or reduction in government assistance programs could pressure traffic and basket sizes.
- Institutional apathy. Smart money score declined from 0.0427 in December 2025 to 0.0142 as of June 2026, with fund count falling to 61, signaling waning institutional conviction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2021 · news (24/7 Wall Street, Benzinga — 2026-08-27). Orin's read on DG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $680.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $525.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $514.2M | 0.2% of fund |
92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 97 Form 4 filings, net −$16.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DG
Orin answers questions about DG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.6× | 20.0× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5× | 14.4× | — |
| P/S | 0.61× | 0.77× | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | 4.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.18σ from its own mean).
-0.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$136
$110 – $160 · +12% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.6× | 12.5× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.6× | 15.0× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.8× | 20.5× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $19B | — | 10.7× | 33.4% | -4.9% | -11% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.2× | 13.0× | 38.6% | 22.0% | 26% |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $20B | 11.1× | 9.2× | 52.6% | 20.1% | 23% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.8× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $315 | $108.81 · +190% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $425 | $108.81 · +291% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.