Dollar General Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dollar General's turnaround has shifted from hopeful to demonstrable, with four consecutive EPS beats culminating in a 23.4% Q2 FY2026 surprise, raised FY2026 guidance to EPS of $7.80–$8.00, and the stock breaking out to $134.36 above both its 50-day ($124.42) and 200-day ($126.36) moving averages with a strongly positive MACD histogram of 1.42.
At 17.4x trailing earnings and 0.68x sales, DG trades at roughly half the peer median PE of 34.4 and PS of 1.16, while operating margin recovery from 4.2% to 5.2% in FY2025 with further guidance upside leaves meaningful room for earnings-driven re-rating. The Instacart partnership and shrink-reduction initiatives add incremental catalysts on top of a core trade-down consumer tailwind.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. Operating margin at 5.2% in FY2025 remains far below the 9.4% FY2021 peak; if shrink reduction and supply-chain productivity fail to deliver further expansion, the re-rating thesis weakens.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $15.72B against equity of $8.51B at FY2025 year-end constrains financial flexibility and amplifies risk if consumer spending softens.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $10.02M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, including an EVP sale at $131.33 on September 3, 2026, signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Technically overbought. RSI of 66.55 and a sharp MACD run after the breakout to $134.36 increase near-term pullback risk, particularly with the analyst average target at $137.96 offering limited implied upside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 27 Aug · news, 16 Oct · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on DG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 23.4% over twelve months, from $102.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $126.86 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $156.24 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 18.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 14.2M, on 4 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $680.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $525.0M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $514.2M | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $449.8M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $385.3M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $372.1M | 0.0% |
94 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 97 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$10.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DG
Orin answers questions about DG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.0×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.4×below usual | 20.0× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.64×below usual | 0.77× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9×below usual | 14.4× | — |
| P/B | 3.0×below usual | 4.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $137 (from $110 to $160) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$137
$110 – $160 · +8% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 35.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGDollar General Corporation | $28B | 16.4× | 11.9× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $440B | 47.7× | 29.8× | 12.8% | 3.0% | 28% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $23B | 15.1× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $39B | 35.6× | 11.3× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | $67B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $950B | 43.1× | 21.6× | 25.2% | 3.0% | 23% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $250 a share — 97% above the $127.27 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $250 | 97% above $127.27 |
| Levered | $343 | 169% above $127.27 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.