The Walt Disney Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Disney's earnings recovery remains on track—FY2025 diluted EPS of $6.85 more than doubled from $2.72 a year earlier, operating margin expanded to 14.7%, and free cash flow reached $10.1B with total debt declining to $45.4B from $52.3B in FY2022.
Quarterly revenue growth has accelerated to +6.8% YoY in Q3 FY2026 (ended 27 Jun), the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters, and technicals have improved with the stock at $108.05 trading above both the 50-day ($105.15) and 200-day ($103.70) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram of 0.28. However, the stock trades at a 111% P/E premium to the peer median of 10.54, smart money flows have turned slightly negative at -0.02 as of Q2 2026 from +0.11 in Q4 2025, and a DOJ antitrust probe into TV networks' press pool coverage announced October 10, 2026 introduces an unquantified regulatory overhang.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 22.23 sits 111% above the peer median of 10.54 and EV/EBITDA of 9.84 is 30% above the peer median of 7.55, leaving limited margin for execution missteps.
- DOJ antitrust investigation. The Justice Department notified major TV networks on October 10, 2026 that it is investigating whether they violated antitrust laws in suspending Trump pool coverage, creating regulatory uncertainty for Disney's linear TV assets.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score deteriorated to -0.02 as of Q2 2026 from +0.11 in Q4 2025, suggesting institutional positioning has softened.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of 7,029 shares valued at approximately $704K, with the most recent material transaction being an option exercise and same-day sale by EVP Brent Woodford on October 8, 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 27 Sep 2025 · FY25 fundamentals · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · results, quarter to 27 Jun. Orin's read on DIS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 1.9% over twelve months, from $112.34 on 27 Oct 2025 to $110.23 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $116.65 on 12 Nov 2025; the last close is 5.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 44.0M, on 13 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DIS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $13.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.9B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $8.1B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $7.5B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.5B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.3B | 0.2% |
| Wellington Management Group | $3.1B | 0.5% |
| FMR | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 0.2% |
153 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 227 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DIS
Orin answers questions about DIS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Communication Services company on the NYSE is at 16.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.7× | — | 16.9× |
| P/S | 1.93×below usual | 2.08× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0×below usual | 15.2× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×near usual | 1.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 16.5× to 160× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $126 (from $111 to $164) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$126
$111 – $164 · +14% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $190B | 22.7× | 10.0× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $77B | 6.9× | 4.7× | 69.8% | 9.2% | 12% |
| FOXFox Corporation | $26B | 14.8× | 7.6× | 36.6% | 9.8% | 15% |
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | $260B | 17.8× | 7.3× | 50.7% | 29.7% | 50% |
| SKYDParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $8B | lost money | n/m | 28.8% | −2.1% | −5% |
| WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $78B | lost money | 7.8× | 47.2% | −8.8% | −9% |
- SKYD, WBD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- SKYD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 16.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now16.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $87 a share — 20% below the $109.66 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $87 | 20% below $109.66 |
| Levered | $145 | 33% above $109.66 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.