The Walt Disney Company DIS
Disney's multi-year earnings inflection remains intact—FY2025 diluted EPS of $6.85 more than doubled from $2.72, operating margin expanded to 14.65% from 8.18% in FY2022, and free cash flow reached $10.1B while total debt declined to $45.4B from $52.3B. The stock at $106.93 trades above both its 50-day ($99.52) and 200-day ($104.14) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram (+0.55) and RSI of 63.6, confirming bullish momentum without overbought excess.
The premium P/E of 22.0 versus the peer median of 12.85 is justified by superior growth and content moat, though smart money flows have turned slightly negative at -0.0092 as of Q2 2026 and the FCC lawsuit introduces regulatory uncertainty.
What could go wrong
- Regulatory/political overhang. Disney's lawsuit against the FCC over ABC broadcast licenses creates an adversarial relationship with the Trump administration that could escalate into broader regulatory retaliation against Disney's media assets.
- Valuation premium. At a P/E of 22.0, DIS trades at a 71% premium to the peer median of 12.85; any deceleration in earnings growth could trigger a de-rating toward peer multiples.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score declined from 0.0918 in Q4 2025 to -0.0092 in Q2 2026 with fund count dropping from 67 to 65, suggesting institutional positioning is softening.
- Revenue growth moderation. FY2025 revenue growth of 3.35% YoY is modest compared to 7.47% in FY2023 and 22.7% in FY2022; if growth continues to decelerate, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2022 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 and FY2022 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 and FY2022. Orin's read on DIS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DIS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $8.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $7.5B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.3B | 0.2% of fund |
150 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 207 Form 4 filings, net $83.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DIS
Orin answers questions about DIS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.3× | 54.6× | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5× | 15.2× | — |
| P/S | 1.82× | 2.08× | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.90σ from its own mean).
6.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $10.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$126
$111 – $164 · +22% against today's price
- 40 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $180B | 21.3× | 9.5× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $80B | 7.3× | 4.8× | 69.4% | 9.0% | 12% |
| FOXAFox Corporation | $28B | 14.6× | 9.3× | 49.4% | 9.8% | 15% |
| TAT&T Inc. | $174B | 8.4× | 5.9× | 59.7% | 16.9% | 19% |
| TMUST-Mobile US, Inc. | $178B | 17.3× | 10.3× | 54.5% | 11.5% | 18% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $194B | 12.1× | 7.9× | 59.1% | 11.6% | 16% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 75.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $101 | $99.41 · +2% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $166 | $99.41 · +67% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.