Delek Logistics Partners, LP
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Delek Logistics Partners is a sell after four consecutive earnings misses of escalating severity — Q2 2026 EPS of $0.54 missed the $0.928 consensus by 41.8%, following misses of 30.2%, 38.5%, and 23.4% in the prior three quarters.
While revenue grew 56.2% YoY in Q2 2026, gross margin compressed from 30.6% in FY2021 to 20.9% in FY2025, FY2025 free cash flow was negative at -$30.6 million with $267.8 million in capex, and total debt of $2.38 billion dwarfs equity of just $6.1 million. The EV/EBITDA of 11.4 trades 77% above the peer median of 6.44 despite these deteriorating fundamentals, and smart money scores have been steadily declining from 0.01 to 0.01 over the past year as of the quarter ended 30 Jun.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and balance sheet fragility. Total debt of $2.38 billion against stockholders' equity of only $6.1 million as of FY2025 leaves negligible margin for error; rising rates or covenant pressure could constrain operations.
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF was -$30.6 million with capex of $267.8 million, meaning the partnership is funding growth and distributions through debt and potentially dilutive equity.
- Margin compression trend. Gross margin has declined from 30.6% (FY2021) to 20.9% (FY2025), and operating margin from 27.2% to 18.0%, eroding the cash-flow durability that supports the distribution.
- Earnings quality deterioration. Four consecutive EPS misses with worsening severity (latest -41.8%) signal that consensus models are not capturing real cost pressures or mix shifts in the business.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 5 Aug · earnings vs estimates, Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on DKL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 25.4% over twelve months, from $45.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $56.92 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $60.31 on 31 Jul 2026; the last close is 5.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.6M, on 13 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DKL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $84.0M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $78.1M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $27.2M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $25.3M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $16.8M | 0.0% |
| NEOS Investment Management | $8.9M | 0.0% |
| Infrastructure Capital Advisors | $7.2M | 0.4% |
| Blackstone | $6.8M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $3.6M | 0.0% |
| Cerity Partners | $794K | 0.0% |
15 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 99 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $776K. Of the 50 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DKL
Orin answers questions about DKL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.5×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.9×above usual | 13.5× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.26×above usual | 2.13× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2×below usual | 9.8× | — |
| P/B | 20.4× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 56.4× to 390× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $58.50 (from $57 to $60) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$58.50
$57 – $60 · +3% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (GEL 63.9×, KNTK 16.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LP | $3B | 17.9× | 6.2× | 11.8% | 11.9% | n/m |
| GELGenesis Energy, L.P. | $2B | 63.9× | 7.3× | 27.8% | 3.9% | n/m |
| KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc. | $4B | 16.3× | 6.4× | 44.8% | 24.3% | n/m |
- DKL, GEL, KNTK: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $96 a share — 68% above the $56.97 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $96 | 68% above $56.97 |
| Levered | $20 | 65% below $56.97 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.