Orin
DLRNYSE·REIT - Office

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. DLR

Market cap $66.6BP/E 83.4× trailingGross margin 13.8%Reports Thu 22 Oct, after the close
$179.90
−1.10 (−0.61%)live 11:30 ET
52-wk $146.23 – $208.14
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 19 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Digital Realty's FY2025 results show genuine operating acceleration—revenue grew 10% to $6.11B, EPS recovered to $3.58 from $1.61, and operating margin expanded to 10.77% from 8.49%, supported by AI-driven leasing demand and a record contracted rent backlog. However, the stock at $192.35 trades at 88.64x earnings versus a peer median of 30.94x, total debt has climbed to $24.18B from $18.01B a year earlier, and smart money positioning while improving remains modest at a score of 0.1714 across 66 funds.

The AI infrastructure tailwind and raised 2026 guidance are real, but the valuation premium already discounts much of that growth, making this a hold pending evidence that leasing momentum sustains without further balance-sheet stretch.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 88.64x PE versus a peer median of 30.94x, any disappointment in leasing velocity or guidance could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with EV/EBITDA already at a 28.9% premium to peers.
  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $24.18B at FY2025-end from $18.01B at FY2024-end, increasing interest-rate sensitivity and refinancing risk if capex normalizes after the $0 reported in FY2025.
  • Capex normalization. FY2025 showed $0 capex and $2.41B FCF versus FY2024 capex of $2.83B and negative FCF of $570M; if development spending resumes, FCF could deteriorate materially.
  • Insider selling signal. Over 24 months insiders net acquired 191,660 shares but net value was -$10.73M, indicating dispositions at higher prices outweighed acquisitions in dollar terms.

What would change my mind

Leasing backlog conversion. Q3 2026 earnings show record backlog converting to signed leases at premium pricing with renewal rent spreads holding or expandingbullish
Debt trajectory. Total debt stabilizes or declines from $24.18B with improving interest coverage in the next two quarterly filingsbullish
Valuation re-rating trigger. PE multiple compresses toward 60x or below peer-comparable levels without an earnings miss, indicating a better entry pointbullish
AI demand deceleration. Leasing volume or renewal rent spreads decelerate meaningfully in Q3 or Q4 2026, suggesting AI-driven demand is plateauingbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on DLR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$5.4B0.2% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$4.0B0.1% of fund
State Street$3.7B0.1% of fund
Norges Bank$3.5B0.3% of fund
Blackstone$2.2B6.7% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.7B0.1% of fund

116 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 66 Form 4 filings, net −$10.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E83.4×42.4×56.8×
EV/EBITDA24.4×20.4×—
P/S9.78×8.69×—
P/B2.3×2.3×—

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.08σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

12.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

49 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$222

$197 – $240 · +24% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 34 buy or overweight
  • 14 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 27.4× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc.$67B83.4×24.4×13.8%11.7%3%
AMTAmerican Tower Corporation$78B23.0×17.2×73.2%30.9%90%
CBRECBRE Group, Inc.$40B31.1×17.9×17.7%3.0%15%
CCICrown Castle Inc.$30B27.4×19.1×63.2%25.8%-52%
EQIXEquinix, Inc.$102B66.3×27.7×51.6%15.6%11%
ORealty Income Corporation$52B40.4×12.2×68.6%22.3%3%
PSAPublic Storage$53B27.1×18.6×60.4%41.8%22%
SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.$66B14.5×12.2×84.6%66.4%109%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 204.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 66.3×FY25 41.5×

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$-4$182.32 · −102%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-71$182.32 · −139%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $179.90
52-week range$146 – $208
Analyst targets$197 – $240
Standard DCF$-4 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $182.32
Levered DCF$-71 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $182.32
At own 5y-median P/E (42×)$92
At 5y P/E range (29–95×)$63 – $207
At sector P/E (57×)$123

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.