Dollar Tree, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dollar Tree's post-Family-Dollar turnaround is tracking well: FY2025 revenue grew 10.4% to $19.4B with EPS of $5.94 versus a -$14.05 loss the prior year, and Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 7.0% to $4.89B with a blowout EPS beat of $2.70 versus $1.15 estimated.
The stock trades at 15.1x P/E and 9.8x EV/EBITDA—roughly 13% and 21% below peer medians of 17.4x and 12.4x—while technicals show price above both the 50-day ($122.28) and 200-day ($116.97) moving averages with a bullish MACD histogram of 1.52 as of 16 Oct. The key question is whether margin gains are sustainable beyond one-time tariff refund benefits, but positive traffic trends, multi-price penetration, and a still-in-progress reinvestment cycle offer asymmetric upside at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Tariff refund sustainability. DLTR reportedly collected nearly $400M in tariff refunds after shoppers had already paid higher prices; if margin improvement is partly driven by this one-time benefit, forward earnings power may be overstated.
- Heavy insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 12.8M shares worth approximately $1.8B, with recent sales by the CIO and other officers at $126–$131 per share—hardly a confidence signal at these levels.
- P/S premium to peer. DLTR trades at 1.16x P/S versus Dollar General's 0.68x, a 71% premium, suggesting the market has already priced in much of the turnaround story on a revenue basis.
- Debt load. Total debt of $7.06B against equity of $3.75B as of FY2025 leaves leverage elevated, constraining financial flexibility if comps decelerate.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 FY26 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on DLTR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 20.5% over twelve months, from $102.59 on 27 Oct 2025 to $123.65 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $141.21 on 15 Jan 2026; the last close is 12.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.3M, on 28 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All DLTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| EdgePoint Investment Group | $1.2B | 8.8% |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $602.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $517.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $425.1M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $341.1M | 0.0% |
87 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 138 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.8B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DLTR
Orin answers questions about DLTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 20.8×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.1×below usual | 20.8× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 1.16×below usual | 1.25× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8×below usual | 15.0× | — |
| P/B | 6.9×above usual | 4.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $139 (from $121 to $160) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$139
$121 – $160 · +13% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (DG 16.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $23B | 15.1× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $28B | 16.4× | 11.9× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $51 a share — 59% below the $123.46 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $51 | 59% below $123.46 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.