Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR
Dollar Tree's turnaround is genuine—FY2025 revenue grew 10.4% to $19.4B with EPS swinging to $5.94 from a loss, and Q2 2026 net sales climbed 7% to $4.9B with 3.7% comp growth and positive traffic—but at $128.26 the stock has already priced in much of the recovery, trading above both its 50-day ($125.79) and 200-day ($116.47) moving averages after a ~30% rally. Valuation screens cheap at 15.5x P/E versus an 18.98x peer median and 10.8x EV/EBITDA versus 13.5x, yet $7.06B of debt against $3.75B equity, a fading smart money score of 0.0089 as of Q2 2026 (down from 0.0505 in December 2025), and $1.15B of net insider selling over 24 months temper the upside case.
The Q2 beat was partly aided by a $383M tariff refund, making the margin gains less clean than they appear.
What could go wrong
- Leverage. Total debt of $7.06B against $3.75B equity at fiscal year-end 2025 constrains financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to any revenue softening.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score fell to 0.0089 as of Q2 2026 from 0.0505 in December 2025, indicating institutional conviction is waning even as fundamentals improve.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $1.15B over 24 months with no cluster buy signal suggests insiders are not accumulating at these levels.
- One-time benefits in Q2. Q2 2026 results included a $383M tariff refund receipt, inflating the apparent margin improvement and making underlying operating trends harder to assess.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · GuruFocus Q2 2026 earnings highlights, published 2026-08-27 · MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights, published 2026-08-27 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on DLTR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DLTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| EdgePoint Investment Group | $1.2B | 8.8% of fund |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $602.1M | 0.0% of fund |
85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 135 Form 4 filings, net −$1.1B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DLTR
Orin answers questions about DLTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.8× | — | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8× | 15.1× | — |
| P/S | 1.08× | 1.25× | — |
| P/B | 6.3× | 4.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.42σ from its own mean).
4.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$140
$121 – $160 · +23% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.6× | 15.0× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.8× | 20.5× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.6× | 12.5× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.2× | 13.0× | 38.6% | 22.0% | 26% |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $20B | 11.1× | 9.2× | 52.6% | 20.1% | 23% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.8× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 25.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-18 | $110.78 · −116% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $74 | $110.78 · −34% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.