Healthpeak Properties, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Healthpeak Properties shows accelerating top-line momentum—Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.1% YoY to $771.6M versus flat growth in Q2 2025—but GAAP profitability remains deeply depressed with FY2025 EPS of just $0.10 versus $0.92 in FY2022, and total debt has ballooned to $10.4B from $6.4B over that same period.
The stock trades at a 57.5x trailing PE, a 114% premium to the peer median of 26.9x, yet its 12.7x EV/EBITDA sits 13.7% below the peer median, reflecting the market discounting the elevated leverage. With RSI at 36.4 and MACD in bearish crossover as of September 30, 2026, technicals are softening near the $18.86 200-day moving average, suggesting patience until GAAP earnings confirm the operational inflection being telegraphed by revenue growth and FFO beats.
What could go wrong
- Debt-servicing pressure. Total debt rose to $10.4B in FY2025 from $6.4B in FY2021 while net income fell to $71.3M from $505.5M over the same period; rising rates or refinancing risk could further compress already-thin net margins of 2.5%.
- Valuation re-rating risk. At 57.5x trailing PE—114% above the 26.9x peer median—any disappointment in earnings recovery could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with RSI already at 36.4 signaling weak momentum.
- Gross margin volatility. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 22.5% from approximately 60% in FY2024, and quarterly gross profit swung from negative in Q1 and Q4 2025 to positive in Q2 2026, indicating inconsistent cost structure or one-time items that obscure underlying profitability.
- Institutional flow divergence. Smart money score is essentially flat at -0.00 as of Q2 2026 with 56 funds, while visible institutional activity is mixed—HSBC reduced its position by 12.8% in Q2 2026 even as NewEdge and Adelante added stakes.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · FY21 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison, 30 Sep. Orin's read on DOC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 0.2% over twelve months, from $19.06 on 27 Oct 2025 to $19.02 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $22.82 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 16.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 61.9M, on 29 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DOC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $963.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $941.8M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $661.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $526.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $396.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $326.0M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $303.6M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $255.5M | 0.0% |
86 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $902K. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DOC
Orin answers questions about DOC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 54.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 54.3× | — | 42.4× |
| P/S | 4.45×below usual | 5.07× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5×below usual | 14.5× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×near usual | 1.7× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 27.3× to 161× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $22 (from $20 to $24) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$22
$20 – $24 · +16% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 54.3× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (WELL 110×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc. | $13B | 54.3× | 12.5× | n/a | 8.6% | 3% |
| WELLWelltower Inc. | $163B | 110× | 49.0× | n/a | 10.7% | 3% |
- DOC, WELL: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 54.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now54.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $34 a share — 81% above the $18.90 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $34 | 81% above $18.90 |
| Levered | $23 | 21% above $18.90 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.