Healthpeak Properties, Inc. DOC
Healthpeak's Q2 2026 FFO beat ($0.46 vs. $0.44 consensus) and raised full-year guidance signal operational improvement in senior housing and lab leasing, with OCF growing to $1.25B in 2025 from $795M in 2021. However, GAAP EPS has collapsed to $0.10 in 2025 from $0.92 in 2022, total debt has surged to $10.4B from $6.4B over the same period, and the trailing PE of 62.3x sits 107% above the peer median of 30.1x, making the stock expensive on earnings despite a discounted 7.5x EV/EBITDA.
With MACD in bearish crossover and RSI at 41, technicals are softening just as fundamentals show early signs of inflection—wait for confirmation that lab occupancy gains translate into sustained GAAP earnings recovery before upgrading.
What could go wrong
- Life science lab recovery stalls. Lab segment occupancy is improving but remains the key swing factor; if the life science sector recovery disappoints, FFO growth and the raised 2026 guidance could be at risk.
- Leverage and interest expense. Total debt rose to $10.44B in 2025 from $6.37B in 2021; rising interest costs could pressure AFFO and the 5.6% dividend coverage despite reported 4.7x net debt/EBITDAre.
- GAAP earnings deterioration. EPS fell from $0.92 in 2022 to $0.10 in 2025 while gross profit dropped from $1.20B to $635M, leaving the PE at 62.3x—any further compression in profitability would deepen the valuation disconnect.
- Technical weakness. MACD histogram is negative at -0.197 with RSI at 41.4, suggesting near-term downside pressure despite the stock trading above its 200-day MA of $18.30.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-04 · Business Wire press release, 2026-08-04 · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on DOC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DOC filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 5 Aug | Total revenues for the three months ended June 30, 2026, were $771.6 million, an increase of 11.1% year-over-year from $694.3 million for the same period in 2025. | read |
| 8-K | 4 Aug | Healthpeak Properties, Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 22 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 13 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 6 May | Healthpeak Properties reported first-quarter 2026 net income applicable to common shares of $193.5 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, up from $42.4 million and $0.06 in the… | read |
| 8-K | 5 May | Healthpeak Properties released first-quarter 2026 results after the close on May 5, 2026, furnishing the press release (Exhibit 99.1), supplemental report (99.2) and Non-GAAP… | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $963.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $941.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $661.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $526.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $396.1M | 0.0% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings, net $737K. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DOC
Orin answers questions about DOC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 57.9× | 38.5× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7× | 14.1× | — |
| P/S | 4.74× | 5.07× | — |
| P/B | 1.8× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.10σ from its own mean).
-0.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$22
$19 – $24 · +11% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc. | $14B | 57.9× | 12.7× | 2.5% | 8.6% | 3% |
| BXPBXP, Inc. | $10B | 33.5× | 13.8× | 46.8% | 8.4% | 6% |
| REGRegency Centers Corporation | $13B | 20.7× | 15.6× | 35.1% | 38.2% | 10% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 114.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $43 | $20.45 · +109% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $27 | $20.45 · +33% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.