Dover Corporation DOV
Dover's fundamentals are accelerating into 2026 with Q1 and Q2 revenue growth of 10.1% and 6.9% YoY respectively, operating margins expanding to 17.0% in FY2025, and FCF recovering to $1.12B, yet the stock trades at a 27% P/E discount and 20% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median. The selloff to $189.93 has pushed RSI to an oversold 29.1 with the stock well below both the 50-day ($209.43) and 200-day ($209.87) moving averages, creating a contrarian entry point backed by consistent earnings beats (Q2 2026 actual EPS of $2.74 vs $2.72 estimated) and strategic M&A including the Leistung acquisition announced August 18.
The FY2025 net income decline of -59.4% is a base-effect distortion from FY2024's anomalous $2.70B net income, not operational deterioration, and the underlying margin profile and cash generation remain healthy.
What could go wrong
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $189.93 is roughly 9% below both the 50-day MA ($209.43) and 200-day MA ($209.87), with MACD histogram at -1.08 and worsening, suggesting the downtrend may not be exhausted despite oversold RSI of 29.1.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0089 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.0137 in Q4 2025, indicating institutional positioning has weakened modestly even as fund count rose to 63.
- Leverage and integration risk. Total debt stood at $3.78B at FY2025 year-end, up from $3.15B in FY2024, and the pending Leistung acquisition adds integration uncertainty to the cryogenic platform.
- Insider selling pattern. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 81,815 shares with no cluster buys; recent transactions are predominantly code 'F' tax withholdings, but the absence of open-market purchases is notable at these levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results · derived_metrics · fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on DOV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DOV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $3.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $979.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $801.0M | 0.0% of fund |
92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 81 Form 4 filings, net $619.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DOV
Orin answers questions about DOV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.6× | 20.4× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0× | 15.5× | — |
| P/S | 3.02× | 3.31× | — |
| P/B | 3.3× | 4.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.66σ from its own mean).
9.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$245
$227 – $270 · +30% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOVDover Corporation | $25B | 22.6× | 15.0× | 39.6% | 13.5% | 15% |
| EFXEquifax Inc. | $18B | 27.1× | 12.4× | 44.4% | 10.7% | 15% |
| HUBBHubbell Incorporated | $24B | 27.4× | 20.1× | 35.2% | 14.5% | 24% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | $92B | 49.0× | 34.7× | 34.4% | 20.5% | 34% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 33.0× | 20.1× | 44.7% | 14.5% | 13% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $30B | 31.1× | 17.0× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $19B | 41.4× | 24.8× | 34.6% | 8.9% | 10% |
| PNRPentair plc | $9B | 13.8× | 11.3× | 41.3% | 16.2% | 17% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $23B | 24.0× | 18.2× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 22.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $148 | $217.03 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $84 | $217.03 · −62% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.