Dover Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dover's fundamentals are accelerating into 2026 with Q1 and Q2 revenue growth of 10.1% and 6.9% YoY respectively, operating margins expanding to 17.0% in FY2025, and FCF recovering to $1.12B, yet the stock trades at a 27% P/E discount and 20% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median.
The selloff to $189.93 has pushed RSI to an oversold 29.1 with the stock well below both the 50-day ($209.43) and 200-day ($209.87) moving averages, creating a contrarian entry point backed by consistent earnings beats (Q2 2026 actual EPS of $2.74 vs $2.72 estimated) and strategic M&A including the Leistung acquisition announced August 18. The FY2025 net income decline of -59.4% is a base-effect distortion from FY2024's anomalous $2.70B net income, not operational deterioration, and the underlying margin profile and cash generation remain healthy.
What could go wrong
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $189.93 is roughly 9% below both the 50-day MA ($209.43) and 200-day MA ($209.87), with MACD histogram at -1.08 and worsening, suggesting the downtrend may not be exhausted despite oversold RSI of 29.1.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.01 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.01 in Q4 2025, indicating institutional positioning has weakened modestly even as fund count rose to 63.
- Leverage and integration risk. Total debt stood at $3.78B at FY2025 year-end, up from $3.15B in FY2024, and the pending Leistung acquisition adds integration uncertainty to the cryogenic platform.
- Insider selling pattern. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 81,815 shares with no cluster buys; recent transactions are predominantly code 'F' tax withholdings, but the absence of open-market purchases is notable at these levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on DOV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 15.9% over twelve months, from $177.96 on 27 Oct 2025 to $206.18 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $233.31 on 20 Feb 2026; the last close is 11.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.1M, on 23 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All DOV filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 23 Jul | Dover Corporation reported revenue of $2.19 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 6.9% year-over-year, driven by 4.8% organic growth and 1.2% from acquisitions. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Dover Corporation announced its results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, via a press release filed on July 23, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 12 May | Dover’s 8-K discloses only the routine shareholder vote results from its 8 May 2026 annual meeting, triggering Item 5.07. | read |
| 13G/A | 12 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 4 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.3B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $979.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $801.0M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $625.4M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $591.2M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $554.7M | 0.0% |
95 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 81 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$20.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DOV
Orin answers questions about DOV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.3×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.9×above usual | 20.3× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.24×near usual | 3.31× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2×near usual | 15.5× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×below usual | 4.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $244 (from $219 to $265) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$244
$219 – $265 · +18% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 31.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOVDover Corporation | $28B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.7% | 13.6% | 15% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $91B | 33.9× | 18.9× | 53.4% | 14.1% | 13% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.1× | 11.2× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 32.3× | 19.3× | 44.9% | 14.6% | 13% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $29B | 30.8× | 16.5× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $18B | 40.2× | 19.8× | 35.5% | 8.1% | 9% |
| NDSNNordson Corporation | $18B | 32.7× | 20.9× | 55.3% | 18.6% | 18% |
| NPOEnPro Industries, Inc. | $6B | 136× | 32.4× | 42.8% | 3.6% | 3% |
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | $113B | 30.2× | 21.2× | 37.7% | 16.6% | 25% |
| PNRPentair plc | $10B | 16.4× | 12.7× | 41.2% | 15.4% | 16% |
| SXIStandex International Corporation | $3B | 28.0× | 14.5× | 41.7% | 11.7% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $139 a share — 32% below the $206.25 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $139 | 32% below $206.25 |
| Levered | $78 | 62% below $206.25 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.