Dow Inc. DOW
Dow Inc. remains a hold as FY2025 confirmed severe fundamental deterioration — a $2.62B net loss (EPS -$3.69), gross margin collapsing to 5.99% from 10.37% a year earlier, and negative $1.447B free cash flow with total debt climbing to $19.6B against $16.0B equity. The stock trades at a ~69% P/S discount to peers (0.53x vs 1.73x median) and insiders have been net buyers ($35.8M over 24 months including the CEO's July 2026 acquisition), but the 16.94x EV/EBITDA sits ~20% above the peer median despite the company being loss-making, and smart money reduced its score from 0.0495 to 0.0035 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 — institutions are trimming while the stock drifts below its 200-day MA ($31.28) with a negative MACD histogram.
The risk-reward is balanced: cyclical recovery potential versus an ongoing cash burn and margin compression that could persist.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression continues. Gross margin fell from 10.37% in FY2024 to 5.99% in FY2025 with operating margin near zero at 0.65%; further erosion would deepen losses and erode equity.
- Balance sheet stress. Total debt rose to $19.598B against $16.008B equity, while free cash flow is negative at -$1.447B, raising refinancing and deleveraging concerns if the downturn persists.
- Institutional outflow. Smart money score dropped from 0.0495 to 0.0035 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, with fund count falling from 61 to 59 — signaling reduced conviction among sophisticated holders.
- Cyclical trough versus structural decline. Revenue has declined four straight years ($56.9B in FY2022 to $39.97B in FY2025); if this reflects structural rather than cyclical weakness, the valuation discount is a trap.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on DOW; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DOW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $954.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $525.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $489.0M | 0.4% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $430.8M | 0.1% of fund |
91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings, net $35.8M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DOW
Orin answers questions about DOW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3× | 8.3× | — |
| P/S | 0.50× | 0.66× | — |
| P/B | 0.8× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.42σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$35
$28 – $45 · +24% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOWDow Inc. | $21B | — | 16.3× | 9.8% | -2.9% | -7% |
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | $13B | 225.5× | 10.7× | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $18B | 283.2× | 14.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $22B | 78.8× | 18.6× | 37.5% | 2.9% | 2% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $19B | — | 16.4× | 13.2% | -1.1% | -3% |
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $24B | 15.1× | 10.6× | 40.1% | 9.6% | 19% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 19.0× | 11.4× | 41.4% | 8.4% | 21% |
| RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 26.9% | 5.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $70 | $34.05 · +105% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $27 | $34.05 · −22% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.