Dow Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dow Inc. is showing genuine cyclical inflection — Q2 2026 revenue surged 19.7% YoY to $12.1B with operating income of $882M and EPS of $0.99 beating estimates by 15.2% — but this follows a devastating FY2025 where the company posted a $2.62B net loss, gross margin collapsed to 6.0%, and free cash flow was negative $1.45B against $19.6B in total debt.
The stock has improved technically since early October, now trading at $30.69 above its 50-day MA of $29.60 with a positive MACD histogram of 0.349, yet remains below its 200-day MA of $32.34 and carries a negative trailing P/E. With Q3 2026 results imminent and only one strong quarter of recovery evidence, the hold reflects balancing real momentum against an impaired balance sheet and an unconfirmed turnaround.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet strain. Total debt of $19.6B against equity of $16.0B as of FY2025, with negative free cash flow of $1.447B and capex of $2.479B, limits financial flexibility if recovery stalls.
- Dividend sustainability. Recent news headlines question whether Dow's high dividend yield is supported by cash flow, with FY2025 operating cash flow of only $1.032B against capex of $2.479B.
- Margin fragility. FY2025 gross margin of 6.0% and operating margin of 0.65% are far below FY2021 levels of 18.9% and 14.4% respectively; input cost pressure and uneven demand could reverse Q2 2026's margin recovery.
- Technical overhead. Stock at $30.69 remains below its 200-day MA of $32.34, and RSI at 65.3 suggests near-term momentum may be extended ahead of Q3 earnings.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 23 Jul · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 20 Oct. Orin's read on DOW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 31.3% over twelve months, from $25.73 on 27 Oct 2025 to $33.78 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $41.87 on 30 Mar 2026; the last close is 19.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 28.5M, on 9 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DOW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $954.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $525.4M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $489.0M | 0.4% |
| Capital World Investors | $430.8M | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $429.5M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $413.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $264.5M | 0.0% |
94 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DOW
Orin answers questions about DOW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.57× its yearly sales — below its usual level (0.66×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.57×below usual | 0.66× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.5×below usual | 1.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 6.7× to 66.9× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 4.7× to 27.3× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $34.60 (from $30 to $45) — 2% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$34.60
$30 – $45 · +2% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOWDow Inc. | $24B | lost money | 11.2× | 11.1% | −1.9% | −5% |
| AVNTAvient Corporation | $4B | 23.0× | 10.9× | 32.1% | 5.3% | 8% |
| CECelanese Corporation | $5B | lost money | 42.3× | 20.2% | −12.0% | −29% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $19B | 299× | 13.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| HUNHuntsman Corporation | $2B | lost money | 13.4× | 13.5% | −2.9% | −6% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $22B | lost money | 17.7× | 13.2% | −1.1% | −3% |
| OLNOlin Corporation | $2B | lost money | 10.5× | 6.9% | −2.1% | −8% |
| TROXTronox Holdings plc | $417M | lost money | 3.3× | 6.2% | −15.9% | −52% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $8B | lost money | 18.2× | 5.9% | −3.9% | −5% |
- CE, HUN, LYB, OLN, TROX, WLK: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $61 a share — 80% above the $33.87 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $61 | 80% above $33.87 |
| Levered | $23 | 31% below $33.87 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.