Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI
Darden closed FY2026 with revenue of $13.21B (up 9.39% YoY) and diluted EPS of $10.39 (up 17.27%), with Q4 revenue growth accelerating to 13.67% YoY — but valuation at 20.4x P/E sits almost exactly at the peer median of 20.4x, leaving little room for multiple expansion. The Q1 FY2027 print landed in-line at $2.05 EPS versus the $2.05 estimate, smart money flows as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 are marginally negative at -0.0094, and total debt of $6.05B against equity of $2.21B adds balance-sheet risk.
Strong execution is already priced in, so the risk/reward stays balanced.
What could go wrong
- Casual-dining macro headwinds. Barron's flagged industry struggles with higher ingredient and labor costs and wellness-trend pressure, which could compress margins despite Darden's scale advantages.
- High financial leverage. Total debt of $6.05B against stockholders' equity of $2.21B at fiscal year-end 2026-05-31 leaves limited buffer if cash flow growth slows.
- Olive Garden drag. BofA cut its Olive Garden same-store-sales estimate while raising LongHorn to 6.5%, suggesting the largest brand by footprint may underperform.
- Valuation at peer median. P/E of 20.4x is roughly in-line with the peer median of 20.4x, so any earnings miss offers little valuation cushion for downside protection.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-05-31 · quarterly_results, period ended 2026-05-31 · peer_relative, as of latest available data · earnings_surprises, period_end 2026-09-24. Orin's read on DRI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DRI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $3.1B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $800.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $764.5M | 0.1% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 437 Form 4 filings, net −$14.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DRI
Orin answers questions about DRI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.1× | 19.7× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0× | 14.9× | — |
| P/S | 1.78× | 1.84× | — |
| P/B | 11.4× | 7.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.24σ from its own mean).
8.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$238
$212 – $255 · +18% against today's price
- 39 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.1× | 13.0× | 69.4% | 8.8% | 56% |
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 16.6× | 14.8× | 40.0% | 11.9% | -15% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $17B | 15.3× | 11.0× | 22.2% | 12.1% | 31% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $21B | 21.9× | 15.4× | 70.3% | 11.8% | 36% |
| SWSmurfit Westrock Plc | $24B | 47.2× | 8.6× | 17.9% | 1.6% | 3% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $24B | 19.9× | 13.4× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $27B | 23.1× | 14.3× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $211 | $203.77 · +3% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $175 | $203.77 · −14% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.