Orin
DTENYSE·Regulated Electric

DTE Energy Company DTE

Market cap $25.1BP/E 19.0× trailingGross margin 36.7%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open
$120.47
−0.71 (−0.59%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $120.36 – $155.75
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Orin's take
0.65conviction · moderate
Refreshed 24 Sep · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

DTE Energy is a buy at $122.89 after a sharp sell-off has driven RSI to an extremely oversold 17.22, well below both the 50-day ($138.41) and 200-day ($141.22) moving averages. The fundamental story remains intact: FY2025 EPS reached $7.06, Q2 2026 EPS of $1.36 beat consensus by 15.8%, and recent hyperscaler data-center contracts in Michigan provide a credible growth catalyst that is not yet fully reflected at a P/S of 1.57 versus the peer median of 3.16.

While persistently negative FCF (-$1.0B in FY2025) and total debt of $26.5B warrant monitoring, the P/E of 19.29 is only 3.3% above the peer median of 18.68, and the technical washout combined with emerging institutional accumulation (CalSTRS added a large position) suggests the risk/reward has skewed favorable.

What could go wrong

  • Negative free cash flow. FCF was -$1.0B in FY2025 and has been negative every year from 2021 through 2025, driven by capex of $4.4B in 2025 alone, raising financing risk if rate cases disappoint.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt climbed from $18.3B in 2021 to $26.5B in FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $12.3B, a debt-to-equity ratio that could pressure the credit rating if data-center investments lag.
  • Insider selling. Insiders were net sellers of approximately $7.3M over the trailing 24-month window, including a September 2026 sale by Vice Chairman Lauer at $135.71.
  • Earnings volatility. Q1 2026 EPS missed estimates by 3.0% and Q2 2026 revenue declined 2.4% YoY, suggesting near-quarter execution risk amid a heavy investment cycle.

What would change my mind

RSI stabilization and MACD crossover. RSI recovers above 30 and MACD line crosses above signal line on daily chartbullish
Rate case or data-center contract confirmation. Michigan regulator approves a new rate case or DTE announces additional binding hyperscaler contracts with committed volumesbullish
FCF deterioration. FY2026 FCF deficit widens beyond -$1.2B or debt-to-equity exceeds 2.5xbearish
Further technical breakdown. Stock closes below $115 on elevated volume, confirming a lower-low below the current oversold zonebearish

Where this comes from: Technical indicators as of 2026-09-23 · Technical indicators as of 2026-09-23 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · Earnings surprises, period ended 2026-07-28. Orin's read on DTE; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.9B0.0% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors$1.9B0.3% of fund
State Street$1.7B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.7B0.1% of fund
Capital World Investors$1.5B0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$891.2M0.0% of fund

91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 120 Form 4 filings, net −$7.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E19.0×18.3×25.9×
EV/EBITDA12.4×12.9×—
P/S1.55×1.69×—
P/B2.1×2.2×—

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.24σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

46 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$156

$143 – $172 · +30% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 21 buy or overweight
  • 25 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 18.6× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DTEDTE Energy Company$25B19.0×12.4×36.7%8.1%11%
AEEAmeren Corporation$27B17.3×11.8×41.1%17.9%12%
ATOAtmos Energy Corporation$26B18.4×13.4×61.0%28.5%10%
CMSCMS Energy Corporation$20B18.6×12.4×69.7%11.6%11%
ESEversource Energy$24B16.5×9.6×35.2%10.4%9%
FEFirstEnergy Corp.$25B23.0×11.5×53.4%6.9%9%
PPLPPL Corporation$24B26.1×13.4×34.6%13.5%9%
SOThe Southern Company$95B19.9×11.9×43.4%15.4%13%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 14.4×FY25 18.3×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$-233$147.45 · −258%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-298$147.45 · −302%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $120.47
52-week range$121 – $156
Analyst targets$143 – $172
Standard DCF$-233 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $147.45
Levered DCF$-298 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $147.45
At own 5y-median P/E (18×)$116
At 5y P/E range (16–25×)$104 – $162
At sector P/E (26×)$165

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.