Duke Energy Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Duke Energy trades at a meaningful discount to regulated-utility peers at 17.5x P/E versus a 19.99x peer median and 10.4x EV/EBITDA versus 13.35x, with FY2025 EPS up 10.5% to $6.31 and seven consecutive quarterly earnings beats.
The stock has recovered from deeply oversold conditions to an RSI near 50 but still sits below both its 50-day MA at $119.75 and 200-day MA at $124.00, while FY2025 free cash flow remains negative at -$1.67B against $14.0B of capex and total debt has climbed to $90.9B. A recently announced North Carolina data-center cost-protection agreement with Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft is a regulatory positive, but 24-month insider activity shows net selling of roughly 69K shares worth $8.7M with zero open-market acquisitions, and smart-money interest has faded to an SM score of 0.03 as of Q2 2026. The valuation discount and earnings momentum offer support, but the structural cash-flow deficit, rising leverage, and unresolved technical downtrend keep the stock on the sidelines.
What could go wrong
- Interest rate sensitivity. As a dividend-paying regulated utility, DUK faces headwinds if Treasury yields continue rising, compressing the dividend-yield premium that supports the valuation floor.
- Hurricane Isaias operational impact. Duke Energy Florida is actively preparing for Hurricane Isaias; storm-related restoration costs and potential regulatory friction add near-term operational and earnings risk.
- Persistent FCF deficit and leverage. FY2025 free cash flow of -$1.67B against $14.0B of capex and total debt of $90.9B constrains financial flexibility and relies on continued capital-market access.
- Insider selling and institutional fading. 24-month insider net selling of ~69K shares with no open-market buys, and smart-money score declining to 0.03 as of Q2 2026, signal waning conviction from both groups.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 8 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · technicals, 8 Oct. Orin's read on DUK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 2.1% over twelve months, from $127.49 on 27 Oct 2025 to $124.80 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $133.46 on 16 Mar 2026; the last close is 6.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.8M, on 10 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DUK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $8.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $5.7B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.6B | 0.5% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.3B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.2B | 0.2% |
129 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 146 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$8.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DUK
Orin answers questions about DUK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.9×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.0×near usual | 18.9× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 3.00×above usual | 2.76× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1×near usual | 11.6× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×above usual | 1.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $130 (from $121 to $140) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$130
$121 – $140 · +4% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $57B | 22.6× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $173B | 14.8× | 16.3× | 62.4% | 39.9% | 20% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $23 a share — 81% below the $124.26 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $23 | 81% below $124.26 |
| Levered | $62 | 50% below $124.26 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.