Duke Energy Corporation DUK
Duke Energy trades at a meaningful discount to regulated-utility peers—18.6x P/E versus a 21.7x median and 11.6x EV/EBITDA versus 14.2x—while FY2025 EPS grew 10.5% to $6.31 on 6.2% revenue growth and operating margin expanded to 26.6%. However, free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$1.7B against $14.0B of capex, total debt has climbed to $90.9B, the stock sits below its 50-day MA at $123.99 with a bearish MACD histogram, and smart-money flows turned slightly negative (-0.018) as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
The valuation cushion is real, but the heavy capex cycle, rising leverage, and weak technicals argue for patience until margin and cash-flow trends show a clearer inflection.
What could go wrong
- Negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of -$1.7B against $14.0B capex and $90.9B total debt signals sustained external financing needs that could pressure the stock if rates stay elevated.
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin fell from 50.1% in FY2024 to 31.6% in FY2025; while likely fuel-cost pass-through for a regulated utility, sustained compression could signal cost recovery challenges.
- Bearish technical setup. As of 2026-08-18, DUK closed at $123.99, below its 50-day MA of $125.66, with a negative MACD histogram of -0.13 and RSI at 46.4, suggesting near-term downside momentum.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$16.1M with 82 dispositions versus 62 acquisitions; the CEO sold 20,000 shares at $124.37 in May 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative (as of 2026-08-18) · peer_relative (as of 2026-08-18) · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025. Orin's read on DUK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DUK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $5.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $1.6B | 0.5% of fund |
126 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 144 Form 4 filings, net −$16.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DUK
Orin answers questions about DUK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.1× | 18.4× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1× | 11.6× | — |
| P/S | 2.67× | 2.76× | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.80σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$135
$127 – $140 · +18% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $89B | 17.1× | 11.1× | 68.2% | 15.7% | 10% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $64B | 20.3× | 13.7× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $54B | 21.2× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $26B | 19.3× | 12.5× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $42B | 14.9× | 10.3× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $34B | 16.7× | 13.3× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $33B | 19.5× | 13.6× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $44B | 19.3× | 12.6× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $97 | $125.54 · −22% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $92 | $125.54 · −27% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.