DaVita Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
DaVita's quarterly EPS recovery from Q3 2025's $2.04 to Q2 2026's $4.02, with consecutive beats of 19.1% and 3.6%, signals the business is emerging from FY2025's earnings decline (net income -20.2% YoY, gross margin compressing from 32.9% to 27.0%).
However, the balance sheet deteriorated materially over the same period — total debt reached $15.0B and stockholders' equity turned negative at -$651M as of fiscal year-end 2025 — while persistent insider selling (net -$750M over 24 months) and slightly negative smart-money flows (-0.04 as of June 2026) temper conviction. With the stock at $187.31 above both its 50-day ($180.49) and 200-day ($173.37) moving averages, the recovery is partially reflected in price; the call is hold pending evidence that margin improvement extends beyond two strong quarters.
What could go wrong
- Balance-sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $15.0B with stockholders' equity at -$651M as of FY2025, limiting financial flexibility and raising interest expense sensitivity.
- Margin sustainability. FY2025 gross margin fell to 27.0% from 32.9% in FY2024; if quarterly recovery does not hold, earnings compression resumes.
- Persistent insider selling. Zero insider acquisitions and net dispositions of -$750M over 24 months, with no cluster-buy signal, suggest limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Regulatory and payer-mix headwinds. Medicare rate pressures and payer-mix dynamics remain structural concerns for dialysis reimbursement, potentially capping revenue per treatment.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results and earnings vs estimates · FY25 fundamentals · insider trades · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on DVA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 40.2% over twelve months, from $129.55 on 27 Oct 2025 to $181.69 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $240.96 on 29 Jul 2026; the last close is 24.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.9M, on 24 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All DVA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $6.4B | 2.1% |
| BlackRock | $547.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $467.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $356.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $306.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $294.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $269.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $189.6M | 0.0% |
| Gates Capital Management | $153.1M | 3.7% |
| Bank of America | $145.1M | 0.0% |
79 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 122 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$750.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DVA
Orin answers questions about DVA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 12.7×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.6×above usual | 12.7× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 0.83×above usual | 0.78× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9×below usual | 9.0× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 9.0× to 105× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $236 (from $215 to $270) — 30% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$236
$215 – $270 · +30% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.6× its last 12 months of profit. None of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVADaVita Inc. | $12B | 15.6× | 7.9× | 31.0% | 6.0% | n/m |
| BAXBaxter International Inc. | $13B | lost money | 27.2× | 30.1% | −9.3% | −17% |
- BAX: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- DVA: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $232 a share — 28% above the $180.94 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $232 | 28% above $180.94 |
| Levered | $318 | 76% above $180.94 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.