DaVita Inc. DVA
DaVita has sold off sharply to $177.27 (as of 2026-08-19) with RSI at 25.9—deeply oversold—despite Q2 2026 results showing accelerating treatment-volume growth, lower patient mortality, and reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance. At 15.2x P/E and 7.8x EV/EBITDA, the stock trades roughly 41-42% below peer medians, discounting the FY2025 margin compression (gross margin 27.0% vs 32.9% in 2024) and the levered balance sheet ($15.0B total debt, negative stockholders' equity of -$651M).
Smart money scores have improved from negative territory to +0.05 as of Q2 2026, and FY2025 free cash flow of $1.31B supports the business through the transition, making the risk/reward attractive at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 27.0% from 32.9% in FY2024, and Q2 2026 news confirmed narrowing margins and a weaker commercial mix.
- Levered balance sheet. Total debt surged to $15.05B in FY2025 from $12.07B in FY2024, and stockholders' equity turned negative at -$651M.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of $757M over 24 months with 5.24M net shares disposed, though recent 2026-08-15 transactions were small board acquisitions.
- Reimbursement and policy risk. Management cited reimbursement pressure on the Q2 2026 call; ACA enrollment attrition and dialysis reimbursement policy changes could further pressure revenue per treatment.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals (as of 2026-08-19) · peer_relative · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 (period ended 2025-12-31). Orin's read on DVA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DVA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $6.4B | 2.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $467.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $356.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $306.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $294.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $269.6M | 0.0% of fund |
77 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 121 Form 4 filings, net −$756.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DVA
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.7× | 13.1× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9× | 9.0× | — |
| P/S | 0.84× | 0.78× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.48σ from its own mean).
-3.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$236
$215 – $270 · +29% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVADaVita Inc. | $12B | 15.7× | 7.9× | 31.0% | 6.0% | -124% |
| ALGNAlign Technology, Inc. | $11B | 25.7× | 12.2× | 66.5% | 10.0% | 10% |
| HSICHenry Schein, Inc. | $10B | 24.6× | 12.9× | 30.3% | 3.0% | 12% |
| UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc. | $11B | 7.4× | 5.7× | 90.7% | 8.4% | 21% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $237 | $198.23 · +20% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $325 | $198.23 · +64% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.