Orin
DYNYSE·Engineering & Construction

Dycom Industries, Inc. DY

Market cap $8.2BP/E 24.5× trailingGross margin 19.0%
$272.50
+0.40 (+0.15%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $271.87 – $566.47
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Orin's take
0.65conviction · moderate
Refreshed 28 Aug · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Dycom's selloff to $294.34 (RSI 22.9, well below the 50-day at $418 and 200-day at $394) appears overdone given Q2 2027 EPS of $5.29 beat the $4.62 consensus, revenue topped estimates, and management raised the FY2027 revenue outlook on record backlog. FY2026 fundamentals show operating margin expansion to 12.53% from 7.24%, revenue growth of 17.95%, and FCF of $401.7M, yet the stock trades at EV/EBITDA of 10.25x — a 38% discount to the peer median of 16.54x.

The Q3 guidance softness stems from a $150M wireless revenue deferral, a timing issue rather than demand destruction, supporting accumulation at these deeply oversold levels.

What could go wrong

  • Debt burden. Total debt nearly tripled to $2.99B from $1.06B in FY2025, increasing financial risk if revenue growth slows.
  • Q3 guidance miss. Q3 adjusted earnings guidance midpoint came in below Wall Street estimates, prompting analyst forecast cuts and accelerating the selloff.
  • Technical breakdown. Stock trades well below both the 50-day ($418) and 200-day ($394) moving averages with MACD at -26.55 vs signal at -15.03, confirming downtrend momentum.
  • Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net disposition value totaled -$30.2M despite small acquisitions in early August.

What would change my mind

Q3 2027 earnings. Q3 results meet or exceed the company's adjusted earnings guidance midpoint, confirming the wireless deferral was timing-relatedbullish
Further guidance reduction. Management lowers FY2027 revenue or earnings outlook beyond the wireless deferral, signaling demand deteriorationbearish
Deleveraging progress. Total debt declines meaningfully from the $2.99B level as FCF is applied to debt reductionbullish
Backlog conversion. Record backlog fails to convert into revenue at historical rates, indicating project delays or cancellationsbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article (2026-08-26) · Zacks/MarketBeat news articles (2026-08-26) · Zacks earnings call coverage (2026-08-27) · FMP derived_metrics FY2026 vs FY2025. Orin's read on DY; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Peconic Partners$2.2B27.9% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$684.1M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$646.1M0.0% of fund
Fmr$473.4M0.0% of fund
State Street$473.1M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$334.1M0.0% of fund

89 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 97 Form 4 filings, net −$11.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E24.5×—44.5×
EV/EBITDA9.3×——
P/S1.19×——
P/B4.0×——
What the price assumes

7.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

22 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$508

$375 – $654 · +86% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 21 buy or overweight
  • 1 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 28.0× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
DYDycom Industries, Inc.$8B24.5×9.3×19.0%4.8%18%
FLRFluor Corporation$7B——-0.8%-12.8%-57%
IESCIES Holdings, Inc.$13B28.1×21.3×25.9%11.4%44%
PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation$4B28.0×15.7×8.6%1.9%8%
TTEKTetra Tech, Inc.$9B20.1×14.3×18.8%8.6%24%
ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation$8B28.2×22.4×44.8%15.9%17%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 25.8×FY26 37.6×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $272.50
52-week range$267 – $566
Analyst targets$375 – $654
At sector P/E (45×)$494

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.