Dycom Industries, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Dycom trades at $253.61 as of 16 Oct, down roughly 55% from its 52-week high of $566.47, despite revenue accelerating to +45.6% YoY in Q2 FY2027 (ended 1 Aug) and a record $12.2B backlog supporting raised FY2027 guidance.
The stock sits at 8.87x EV/EBITDA, a 45.3% discount to the peer median of 16.22x, while FY2026 operating margin expanded to 12.5% from 7.2% and FCF reached $401.7M. A September 2026 cluster buy by three insiders including CEO Peyovich at prices above $280, combined with an RSI near 30, suggests the selloff has overshot the fundamental trajectory, though the near-tripling of total debt to $2.99B from $1.06B warrants close monitoring.
What could go wrong
- Leverage surge. Total debt jumped from $1.06B in FY2025 to $2.99B in FY2026 (ended 31 Jan), materially increasing balance-sheet risk if revenue growth slows.
- Customer concentration. News coverage flags customer concentration as a key challenge; a reduction in spending from a major telecom client could impair the $12.2B backlog conversion.
- Persistent downtrend. Stock trades at $253.61, well below the 50-day MA of $313.81 and 200-day MA of $384.71 as of 16 Oct; technical deterioration could continue despite oversold conditions.
- Tariff and margin pressure. Recent news explicitly cites tariff risks and margin pressure as factors challenging Dycom's prospects despite the raised outlook.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on DY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.1% over twelve months, from $284.16 on 27 Oct 2025 to $229.95 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $535.20 on 28 May 2026; the last close is 57.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.2M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Peconic Partners | $2.2B | 27.9% |
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $684.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $646.1M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $473.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $473.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $334.1M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $300.2M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $270.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $208.3M | 0.0% |
91 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 93 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DY
Orin answers questions about DY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.0×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.7×below usual | 24.0× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.01×above usual | 0.82× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3×below usual | 11.6× | — |
| P/B | 3.4×near usual | 3.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $508 (from $375 to $654) — 121% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$508
$375 – $654 · +121% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DYDycom Industries, Inc. | $7B | 20.7× | 8.3× | 19.0% | 4.8% | 18% |
| APGAPi Group Corporation | $18B | lost money | 23.0× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 10% |
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $29B | 20.7× | 12.9× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $45B | 27.8× | 19.2× | 25.6% | 13.0% | 55% |
| FLRFluor Corporation | $6B | lost money | n/m | −0.8% | −12.8% | −57% |
| IESCIES Holdings, Inc. | $9B | 19.9× | 15.0× | 25.9% | 11.4% | 44% |
| MYRGMYR Group Inc. | $4B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 12.4% | 4.1% | 24% |
| PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation | $4B | 26.8× | 15.1× | 8.6% | 1.9% | 8% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $87B | 65.5× | 30.0× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
- APG, FLR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- FLR: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $287 a share — 25% above the $230.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $287 | 25% above $230.01 |
| Levered | $452 | 96% above $230.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.