eBay Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
eBay's revenue acceleration is genuine — Q1 2026 revenue grew 19.5% YoY to $3.09B and Q2 2026 grew 14.8% YoY to $3.13B, with eight consecutive EPS beats — but profitability is not keeping pace: FY2025 operating margin compressed to 20.5% from 22.5% and FCF margin fell to 15.0% from 19.0%, while the stock trades at 22.71x P/E and 17.38x EV/EBITDA, a ~49% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median.
Persistent insider selling — net dispositions of 1.08M shares worth $91.6M over 24 months with zero insider acquisitions, including CEO Iannone's October 2026 sales near record highs — and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.00 as of Q2 2026 suggest sophisticated investors remain unconvinced despite the momentum. The technical picture is supportive (last close $112.19 above both the 50-day MA of $106.86 and 200-day MA of $101.69 with positive MACD), but the valuation premium relative to peers is difficult to justify until margin and FCF trends stabilize.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 operating margin fell to 20.5% from 22.5% and FCF margin dropped to 15.0% from 19.0% despite revenue growth of 8.0%, suggesting rising costs or reinvestment that could erode earnings quality.
- Valuation premium unwinds. EBAY trades at 17.38x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 11.69x — a ~49% premium — and 22.71x P/E versus 20.83x peer median; any growth deceleration could trigger multiple compression.
- Insider selling accelerates. Over 24 months insiders net sold 1,084,650 shares for $91.6M with zero acquisitions; CEO Iannone continued selling in October 2026 at $105–107 per share near record highs.
- Competitive pressure from Amazon. Amazon announced tools letting sellers manage eBay, Shopify, Walmart, and TikTok sales from Amazon dashboards, which could further entrench Amazon's platform dominance over third-party marketplaces.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on EBAY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 20.2% over twelve months, from $98.01 on 27 Oct 2025 to $117.83 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $122.91 on 15 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 20.9M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EBAY filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | eBay reported net revenues of $3.134 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 15% year-over-year from $2.730 billion in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 5 Aug | eBay Inc. reported second quarter 2026 revenue of $3.1 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year on an as-reported basis. | read |
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13D/A | 17 Jul | GameStop Corp. now beneficially owns 43,390,383 shares of eBay Inc. common stock, representing 9.8% of the outstanding shares. | read |
| 8-K | 18 Jun | eBay Inc. stockholders elected all 11 director nominees at the June 17, 2026 Annual Meeting. | read |
| 13D/A | 6 Jun | GameStop Corp. beneficially owns | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.3B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $969.3M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $889.6M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $879.7M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $816.9M | 0.1% |
104 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 725 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$91.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EBAY
Orin answers questions about EBAY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.9× | — | 82.5× |
| P/S | 4.37×above usual | 2.99× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 11.3×above usual | 4.5× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 3.2× to 19.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 6.7× to 44.0× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $118 (from $91 to $145) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$118
$91 – $145 · +1% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (AMZN 20.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $52B | 23.9× | 18.2× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | $2.73T | 20.1× | 11.3× | 50.8% | 17.4% | 30% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $21 a share — 82% below the $117.21 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $21 | 82% below $117.21 |
| Levered | $37 | 69% below $117.21 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.