eBay Inc. EBAY
eBay's FY2025 results show real top-line acceleration — revenue grew 7.95% to $11.1B with EPS up 10.15% to $4.34 — but operating margin compressed to 20.51% from 22.54% and FCF margin fell to 14.96% from 19.02%, signaling that growth is coming at a cost. The stock trades at 20.78x P/E and 16.61x EV/EBITDA, premiums of roughly 9% and 26% to peer medians, while persistent net insider selling of $156.6M over 24 months and a low smart money score of 0.0272 as of Q2 2026 suggest sophisticated participants remain cautious despite BlackRock's newly disclosed 8.88% position.
With the stock below its 50-day MA at $102.64 and RSI at 39.5, near-term technicals are weak but approaching oversold; the growth story is improving but not yet sufficient to justify the valuation premium. Hold pending evidence that margin compression has stabilized and FCF recovers.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin fell to 20.51% in FY2025 from 22.54% in FY2024 and FCF margin dropped to 14.96% from 19.02%; if capex remains elevated at $525M and margins continue to erode, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
- Insider selling accelerates. Net insider selling of $156.6M over 24 months with 411 dispositions vs 220 acquisitions; continued selling by officers at $103–107 in August 2026 could signal lack of confidence in near-term upside.
- Valuation premium unwinds. EBAY trades at a 31.4% premium to peer median on P/S and 26.1% premium on EV/EBITDA; if growth decelerates back toward the 1.69% pace seen in FY2024, the stock could de-rate toward peer multiples.
- Technical breakdown. Stock is below its 50-day MA of $110.15 with bearish MACD (histogram -0.90); a break below the 200-day MA at $97.38 would signal a deeper correction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics. Orin's read on EBAY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EBAY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.3B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $969.3M | 0.1% of fund |
101 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 720 Form 4 filings, net −$161.8M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EBAY
Orin answers questions about EBAY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.1× | — | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.6× | — | — |
| P/S | 4.03× | 2.99× | — |
| P/B | 10.5× | 4.5× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.25σ from its own mean).
12.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$118
$92 – $145 · +6% against today's price
- 34 buy or overweight
- 33 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $48B | 22.1× | 17.6× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $30B | 9.4× | 7.5× | 34.4% | 11.2% | 24% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42B | 30.0× | 20.7× | 24.1% | 11.4% | 53% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $27B | 18.5× | 12.1× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $25B | 15.2× | 8.1× | 50.9% | 12.8% | 142% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $17B | 16.8× | 12.2× | 32.5% | 6.4% | 39% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $23B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $27B | 23.0× | 14.2× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $39B | 17.6× | 17.5× | 45.8% | 25.4% | -30% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 22.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $22 | $108.42 · −80% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $39 | $108.42 · −64% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.