Excelerate Energy, Inc. EE
Excelerate Energy's Q2 2026 results show a genuine profitability inflection—quarterly net income of $50.1 million already exceeds full-year FY2025 net income of $39.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $120.1 million validates the asset-recycling model with new FSRU deployments in Jordan, Colombia, and Iraq. However, FY2025 gross margin compressed to 32.19% from 47.93% in FY2024 despite 44.3% revenue growth, total debt doubled to $1.43B, and the P/E of 26.46x carries a ~19.5% premium to the peer median of 22.15x—leaving limited margin of safety if the Q2 earnings strength does not persist across subsequent quarters.
With smart money fund count declining from 44 to 40 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 and net insider dollar flow negative over 24 months, the bullish case needs confirmation before adding risk.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin fell to 32.19% from 47.93% in FY2024 even as revenue grew 44.3%, suggesting revenue growth is driven by lower-margin LNG trading rather than high-margin terminal services.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt doubled from $697.4M in FY2024 to $1.43B in FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $682.5M, increasing financial fragility if LNG markets soften.
- Revenue volatility. Annual revenue swung from $2.47B (FY2022) to $851M (FY2024) to $1.23B (FY2025), making forward earnings visibility dependent on contract renewals and redeployment timing.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money fund count declined from 44 (Q1 2026) to 40 (Q2 2026) and the SM score remains near zero at 0.003, suggesting limited conviction from sophisticated investors.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Business Wire press release, 2026-08-05 · FMP FY2025 annual fundamentals; derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2024 and FY2025 · FMP FY2024 and FY2025 annual fundamentals. Orin's read on EE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $126.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $46.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Tortoise Capital Advisors, L.L.C | $44.3M | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $37.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $23.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $21.7M | 0.0% of fund |
49 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 66 Form 4 filings, net −$2.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EE
Orin answers questions about EE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.8× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.67× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | — | — |
3.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$45
$38 – $50 · +31% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EEExcelerate Energy, Inc. | $4B | 22.8× | 10.2× | 37.0% | 3.2% | 7% |
| AWRAmerican States Water Company | $3B | 22.7× | 15.4× | 57.0% | 20.5% | 14% |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 20.6× | 13.3× | 49.9% | 15.1% | 9% |
| CWTCalifornia Water Service Group | $3B | 20.7× | 12.0× | 64.4% | 12.6% | 8% |
| FLNCFluence Energy, Inc. | $1B | — | — | 9.2% | -3.1% | -21% |
| MGEEMGE Energy, Inc. | $3B | 17.5× | 12.1× | 85.4% | 19.5% | 11% |
| NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc | $4B | 24.6× | 13.2× | 66.5% | 10.1% | 6% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.