Excelerate Energy, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Excelerate Energy remains a hold as strong top-line growth—FY2025 revenue of $1.23B up 44.3% YoY and Q2 2026 revenue of $329.3M up 61% YoY—is offset by material balance sheet deterioration and margin compression.
Total debt doubled to $1.43B at FY2025-end from $697.4M a year earlier, FY2025 gross margin compressed to 32.2% from 47.9%, and diluted EPS was essentially flat at $1.28 versus $1.27. The stock trades at a 15.9% premium to the peer median P/E of 20.57 but a 14.1% discount on EV/EBITDA, leaving valuation mixed, while RSI at 52.2 and the price sitting below both the 50-day ($36.66) and 200-day ($35.73) moving averages suggest no clear technical edge ahead of the Q3 2026 earnings release on November 4, 2026.
What could go wrong
- Leverage escalation. Total debt rose to $1.43B at FY2025-end from $697.4M in FY2024 against stockholders' equity of $682.5M, creating a debt-to-equity ratio above 2.0x that constrains financial flexibility.
- Gross margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 32.2% from 47.9% in FY2024, indicating revenue growth is coming from lower-margin contracts or pass-through commodity costs that could persist.
- EPS stagnation despite revenue growth. FY2025 diluted EPS of $1.28 was up only 0.79% from $1.27 in FY2024, meaning the 44.3% revenue growth is not flowing through to bottom-line shareholders.
- Institutional and insider sentiment. Smart money fund count declined from 45 to 41 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun, and 24-month insider net flow is negative at -$204,900 with zero open-market acquisitions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · fundamentals. Orin's read on EE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 31.9% over twelve months, from $25.24 on 27 Oct 2025 to $33.29 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $42.89 on 25 Feb 2026; the last close is 22.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.2M, on 5 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Management Group | $126.9M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $76.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $46.8M | 0.0% |
| Tortoise Capital Advisors | $44.3M | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $37.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $23.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $21.7M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $18.2M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $14.9M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $12.8M | 0.0% |
50 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 64 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$205K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EE
Orin answers questions about EE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.6× | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.92× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | — | — |
- Listed on 13 Apr 2022 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $44.50 (from $38 to $50) — 34% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$44.50
$38 – $50 · +34% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EEExcelerate Energy, Inc. | $4B | 23.6× | 10.2× | 44.0% | 3.5% | 7% |
| AWRAmerican States Water Company | $4B | 24.3× | 16.6× | 59.9% | 20.4% | 13% |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 22.2× | 9.2× | 36.3% | 15.1% | 9% |
| CWTCalifornia Water Service Group | $3B | 21.5× | 12.3× | 64.4% | 12.6% | 8% |
| FLNCFluence Energy, Inc. | $1B | lost money | n/m | 9.2% | −3.1% | −21% |
| MGEEMGE Energy, Inc. | $3B | 18.1× | 12.5× | 49.0% | 20.6% | 12% |
| NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc | $5B | 30.7× | 14.8× | 64.7% | 9.5% | 6% |
- FLNC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- FLNC: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $18 a share — 47% below the $33.06 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $18 | 47% below $33.06 |
| Levered | $169 | 412% above $33.06 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.