Equifax Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Equifax posted a solid Q3 2026 beat with revenue of $1.69B growing 9.6% YoY and adjusted EPS of $2.26 exceeding the $2.19 consensus, but the stock has rallied to $176.54 with an overbought RSI of 70.37 and now sits just below its 200-day MA of $178.50, limiting near-term upside.
The company cut its 2026 outlook due to late-quarter U.S. mortgage weakness, and persistent insider selling — net -264,537 shares over 24 months valued at -$55.99M — alongside a slightly negative smart money score of -0.012 as of Q2 2026 tempers conviction. While the EV/EBITDA of 12.58x remains attractively discounted versus the peer median of 16.74x and FY2025 FCF margin of 18.7% is strong, the 27.67x PE at a 6.3% premium to the peer median leaves little room for error given the mortgage headwind.
What could go wrong
- Mortgage market deterioration. Q3 2026 news highlights a sharp late-quarter weakening in the U.S. mortgage market that prompted Equifax to lower its 2026 revenue outlook, and further deterioration could pressure the USIS segment.
- Overbought technicals. RSI of 70.37 and a stock price of $176.54 approaching the 200-day MA of $178.50 suggest the post-earnings rally may be exhausted, increasing pullback risk.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 264,537 shares for -$55.99M, including CFO Gamble selling 4,500 shares at $187.96 on 3 Sep, signaling limited insider confidence at elevated prices.
- Valuation premium. PE of 27.67x trades at a 6.3% premium to the peer median of 26.04x, leaving limited margin of safety if growth decelerates from the recent 9.6% YoY pace.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · technicals, 20 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on EFX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 23.3% over twelve months, from $229.02 on 27 Oct 2025 to $175.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $229.02 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 23.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.3M, on 21 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EFX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $1.2B | 1.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $832.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $825.3M | 0.0% |
| Soroban Capital Partners | $700.1M | 1.5% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $620.4M | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $525.5M | 0.0% |
| Brown Advisory | $521.9M | 0.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $498.9M | 0.0% |
88 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 150 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$62.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EFX
Orin answers questions about EFX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 28.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 47.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.2×below usual | 47.9× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.13×below usual | 5.55× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8×below usual | 21.2× | — |
| P/B | 4.6×below usual | 6.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $198 (from $148 to $245) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$198
$148 – $245 · +13% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 28.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFXEquifax Inc. | $21B | 28.2× | 12.8× | 55.2% | 11.3% | 17% |
| ICFIICF International, Inc. | $2B | 17.9× | 12.0× | 26.0% | 5.3% | 9% |
| PAYXPaychex, Inc. | $39B | 21.6× | 14.0× | 74.4% | 27.4% | 47% |
| RHIRobert Half Inc. | $4B | 34.4× | 28.6× | 37.3% | 2.3% | 10% |
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $132B | 27.3× | 17.4× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 17% |
| VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $28B | 32.0× | 16.3× | 67.7% | 27.7% | n/m |
- VRSK: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 28.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now28.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $108 a share — 39% below the $176.18 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $108 | 39% below $176.18 |
| Levered | $79 | 55% below $176.18 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.