Equifax Inc. EFX
Equifax's fundamental recovery remains intact — FY2025 revenue reached $6.07B with 6.9% YoY growth, FCF improved to $1.13B from $132.6M in FY2022, and EPS recovered to $5.32 from $4.40 in FY2023. However, the stock has rallied to $194.35 (above both the 50-day MA of $175.03 and 200-day MA of $188.36) and now trades at 33.9x earnings, a 20% premium to the peer median of 28.3x, even as EV/EBITDA at 14.8x remains 23% below peers.
With smart money at -0.08 as of Q2 2026 and net insider selling of $59.5M over 24 months, the risk/reward at current levels is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/E of 33.9x sits 20% above the peer median of 28.3x; any deceleration in revenue or EPS growth could trigger a multiple re-rating lower.
- Gross margin decline. Gross margin fell to 44.6% in FY2025 from 55.7% in FY2024, with gross profit declining from $3.16B to $2.71B despite revenue growth; if this reflects a structural cost shift rather than reclassification, operating margins could eventually compress.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score turned negative at -0.08 as of 2026-06-30, down from 0.099 in Q1 2026, suggesting institutional positioning has softened.
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $59.5M in value across 81 dispositions versus 60 acquisitions; the CEO exercised options at $112.46 in July 2026 but also sold common shares at $168–$176.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2022/FY2023/FY2025 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on EFX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EFX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $1.2B | 1.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $832.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $825.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Soroban Capital Partners | $700.1M | 1.5% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $620.4M | 0.2% of fund |
86 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 142 Form 4 filings, net −$60.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EFX
Orin answers questions about EFX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.0× | 48.0× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0× | 21.2× | — |
| P/S | 2.71× | 5.55× | — |
| P/B | 4.0× | 6.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.57σ from its own mean).
4.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$216
$182 – $245 · +45% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFXEquifax Inc. | $17B | 26.0× | 12.0× | 44.4% | 10.7% | 15% |
| DOVDover Corporation | $25B | 22.5× | 14.9× | 39.6% | 13.5% | 15% |
| HUBBHubbell Incorporated | $25B | 27.5× | 20.2× | 35.2% | 14.5% | 24% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | $92B | 49.1× | 34.8× | 34.4% | 20.5% | 34% |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $36B | 33.6× | 19.9× | 31.7% | 19.4% | 25% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $23B | 24.1× | 18.3× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
| VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $22B | 25.9× | 15.7× | 67.7% | 28.2% | -212% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $128 | $169.03 · −24% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $95 | $169.03 · −44% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.