Orin
EGPNYSE·REIT - Industrial

EastGroup Properties, Inc. EGP

Market cap $10.9BP/E 35.5× trailingGross margin 44.2%Reports Thu 22 Oct, after the close
$202.60
−0.84 (−0.41%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $164.80 – $226.71
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 28 Aug · take v2. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

EastGroup Properties remains a high-quality Sunbelt industrial REIT with revenue growing 13.0% to $721M in 2025 and a just-announced 12.9% dividend increase to $1.75 per share, signaling management confidence. However, 2025 gross margin compressed sharply to 43.3% from 72.7% in 2024 with operating income falling to $288M from $443M, even as net income rose 13% to $257M — suggesting earnings quality is increasingly reliant on non-operating items.

At 35.0x earnings versus a peer median of 22.5x (a 55.5% premium) and 14.3x sales versus 8.0x (a 79.0% premium), the stock prices in sustained outperformance that the deteriorating operating margins do not currently support, keeping the call at hold despite the recent pullback to $200 and near-oversold RSI of 37.8.

What could go wrong

  • Operating margin compression. 2025 operating margin fell to 39.9% from 69.4% in 2024, with operating income declining to $288M from $443M; if this trend persists into 2026, the premium valuation becomes increasingly difficult to justify.
  • Valuation premium. EGP trades at 35.0x P/E, 14.3x P/S, and 22.2x EV/EBITDA — premiums of 55.5%, 79.0%, and 41.8% respectively versus peer medians — leaving limited margin for execution missteps.
  • Insider net selling value. Over the trailing 24 months, insider transactions show net positive share accumulation of 71,124 shares but net negative value of approximately $10.2M, indicating larger-dollar dispositions offsetting smaller grant-based acquisitions.
  • Sunbelt industrial cycle risk. Concentration in Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, and North Carolina exposes EGP to regional demand cycles; any slowdown in Sunbelt industrial leasing could pressure re-leasing spreads and occupancy.

What would change my mind

Operating margin recovery. Q3 2026 results show gross margin and operating margin returning toward 2024 levels (72.7% and 69.4% respectively), indicating the 2025 compression was transitory.bullish
Valuation re-rating toward peers. P/E multiple compresses toward peer median of 22.5x either via price decline or earnings acceleration, narrowing the current 55.5% premium to under 30%.bullish
Sustained operating income decline. Full-year 2026 operating income fails to recover above the 2025 level of $288M, confirming the margin compression is structural rather than one-time.bearish
Smart money outflow. Q3 2026 13F filings (available ~November 2026) show institutional fund count declining below 50 and SM score turning negative, reversing the modest positive trend seen through Q2 2026.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024; derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · PRNewsWire news article 2026-08-27. Orin's read on EGP; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

FormFiledWhat it saysRead
10-Q22 JulEastGroup Properties, Inc.read
8-K22 JulEastGroup Properties, Inc.read
8-K26 MayEastGroup Properties, Inc.read
13G/A15 Mayon file
13G29 Apron file
13G29 Apron file
10-Q22 AprEastGroup Properties, Inc.read
8-K22 AprEastGroup Properties, Inc.read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$943.3M0.0% of fund
State Street$532.1M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$491.9M0.0% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$325.4M0.0% of fund
Norges Bank$302.5M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$230.3M0.0% of fund

74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 87 Form 4 filings, net −$10.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E35.5×56.8×
EV/EBITDA22.5×
P/S14.46×
P/B3.0×
What the price assumes

11.7%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$230

$200$268 · +14% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 16 buy or overweight
  • 17 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 24.2× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.$11B35.5×22.5×44.2%40.5%9%
AREAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.$9B50.2×69.5%-30.6%-6%
CUBECubeSmart$9B26.1×17.3×17.4%29.4%12%
FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.$8B22.2×15.5×47.7%48.0%13%
FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust$9B21.8×13.9×54.0%32.7%13%
LINELineage, Inc.$8B11.9×11.0%-3.1%-2%
REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc.$9B61.0%-39.7%-5%
STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.$7B28.3×14.8×62.0%28.0%7%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 41.4×FY25 36.5×

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $202.60
52-week range$165 – $227
Analyst targets$200 – $268
At sector P/E (57×)$324

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.