EastGroup Properties, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
EastGroup Properties remains a hold ahead of the October 22 Q3 2026 earnings call, as the stock trades at 34.5x earnings versus a peer median of 21.2x — a 63% premium — that leaves little room for error despite sequentially improving quarterly operating income from $74.2M in Q3 2025 to $78.8M in Q2 2026.
Revenue growth remains robust at 9.1% YoY in Q2 2026, but the FY2025 operating margin compression to 39.9% from 69.4% in FY2024 has not been fully explained, and the premium valuation prices in a margin recovery that is not yet confirmed. Smart money is essentially neutral at -0.001 as of Q2 2026, and the technical picture is middling with the stock sitting between its 50-day ($199.4) and 200-day ($197.4) moving averages.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 operating margin fell to 39.9% from 69.4% in FY2024; if Q3 2026 results show operating income failing to continue its sequential improvement from the $78.8M level seen in Q2 2026, the premium multiple compresses sharply.
- Valuation premium unwinds. At 34.5x PE and 21.9x EV/EBITDA — 63% and 49% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in revenue growth from the current 9–10% quarterly pace could trigger multiple contraction toward peer levels.
- Sunbelt industrial oversupply. EGP concentrates in Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, and North Carolina; a wave of new industrial supply in these Sunbelt markets could pressure occupancy and rental rate growth.
- Rising debt load. Total debt increased to $1.75B in FY2025 from $1.55B in FY2024; further leverage increases in a higher-for-longer rate environment could pressure FFO and dividend coverage.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · fundamentals · quarterly results · 13F holdings. Orin's read on EGP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.4% over twelve months, from $178.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $197.45 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $223.38 on 16 Jul 2026; the last close is 11.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.6M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EGP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $943.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $532.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $491.9M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $325.4M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $302.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $230.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $225.8M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $170.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $157.0M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$771K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EGP
Orin answers questions about EGP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 36.5×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.4×below usual | 36.5× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 13.8×near usual | 13.2× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.6×below usual | 24.4× | — |
| P/B | 3.0×below usual | 3.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $228 (from $199 to $246) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$228
$199 – $246 · +16% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc. | $11B | 33.4× | 21.6× | n/a | 41.0% | 9% |
| FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. | $7B | 20.4× | 14.2× | n/a | 46.1% | 13% |
| PLDPrologis, Inc. | $120B | 27.9× | 18.1× | n/a | 45.5% | 8% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | lost money | — | n/a | −47.8% | −6% |
| STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc. | $7B | 25.7× | 11.0× | n/a | 29.9% | 7% |
| TRNOTerreno Realty Corporation | $7B | 20.1× | 16.1× | n/a | 68.1% | 8% |
- REXR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- EGP, FR, PLD, REXR, STAG, TRNO: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $199 a share — 1% above the $197.75 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $199 | 1% above $197.75 |
| Levered | $179 | 10% below $197.75 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.