Edison International
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Edison International trades at a 71.6% P/E discount to its regulated-electric peer median (5.68x vs 20.03x as of the quarter ended 30 Jun), but the gap reflects unresolved California wildfire-liability uncertainty that Sacramento has not closed, persistent negative free cash flow of -$715M in FY2025, and a debt load of $42.6B against $17.6B equity.
FY2025 earnings power is genuine — operating margin expanded to 36.7% and EPS reached $11.55 with consistent quarterly beats including a 30.5% surprise — yet Q2 2026 revenue declined 4.1% YoY and the stock remains in a downtrend at $55.30, below both its 50-day ($61.90) and 200-day ($68.05) moving averages as of 9 Oct. The 6.5% dividend yield offers support, but its sustainability hinges on regulatory outcomes that are not yet resolved, making this a wait-and-see situation rather than a clear accumulation opportunity.
What could go wrong
- Wildfire liability unresolved. News as of 30 Sep notes the dividend's survival 'depends on one question Sacramento has not answered,' indicating regulatory uncertainty around wildfire liability protections remains a material overhang.
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FCF has been negative every year from FY2021 through FY2025, with FY2025 FCF at -$715M against capex of $6.5B, requiring continued external financing.
- High leverage. Total debt reached $42.6B at FY2025 year-end against stockholders' equity of $17.6B, with debt rising from $29.5B in FY2021.
- Insider dispositions. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders recorded 0 open-market acquisitions and 8 dispositions, with net selling of 23,361 shares valued at approximately $1.47M.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 9 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on EIX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 2.2% over twelve months, from $56.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $58.19 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $80.38 on 22 Jul 2026; the last close is 27.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 24.8M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EIX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.3B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $503.4M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $452.8M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $418.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $417.9M | 0.0% |
96 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 174 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EIX
Orin answers questions about EIX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0× | — | 18.5× |
| P/S | 1.15×below usual | 1.68× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4×below usual | 10.7× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×below usual | 1.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.2× to 39.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $59.56 (from $42 to $70) — 2% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$59.56
$42 – $70 · +2% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $71B | 22.4× | 14.4× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $28B | 30.9× | 7.4× | 37.2% | 5.5% | 7% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $20B | 19.0× | 12.0× | 50.0% | 16.7% | 10% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $27B | 24.7× | 12.8× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $8B | 22.8× | 14.7× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| OGEOGE Energy Corp. | $10B | 21.4× | 11.1× | 53.6% | 14.6% | 11% |
| PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation | $13B | 20.0× | 10.9× | 46.9% | 11.5% | 9% |
| PORPortland General Electric Company | $5B | 19.5× | 9.4× | 44.4% | 7.4% | 6% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now6.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $640 a share — 999% above the $58.22 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $640 | 999% above $58.22 |
| Levered | $445 | 664% above $58.22 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.