The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Estée Lauder's fiscal 2026 turnaround is genuine but the stock at $98.05 already reflects much of the recovery, trading at 192x trailing earnings — 790% above the peer median P/E of 21.6x — on full-year EPS of just $0.50.
Revenue grew 5.1% to $15.05B with operating margin expanding to 11.1% from 8.0%, and the company posted four consecutive positive EPS surprises, yet Q4 FY2026 still delivered a net loss of $116M (EPS -$0.32), underscoring that profitability remains fragile. With total debt of $9.25B against equity of $3.81B, insiders net sellers of $1.03B over 24 months, and luxury-market headwinds intensifying, the risk/reward is balanced but not compelling at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation. P/E of 192x is 790% above the peer median of 21.6x; EV/EBITDA of 25x is 98% above the peer median of 12.7x, leaving no room for execution missteps.
- Q4 profitability relapse. Q4 FY2026 net loss of $116M (EPS -$0.32) follows three improving quarters, suggesting the recovery is uneven and vulnerable to seasonal or regional weakness.
- Luxury demand deterioration. Recent news cites 70 million luxury shoppers vanishing from the global market, a structural headwind for EL's premium portfolio.
- Insider selling and leverage. Insiders net sold $1.03B of stock over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, while total debt of $9.25B against equity of $3.81B constrains financial flexibility.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 30 Jun · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · fundamentals and results, quarter to 30 Jun · peer comparison. Orin's read on EL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 7.9% over twelve months, from $100.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $108.35 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $119.61 on 4 Feb 2026; the last close is 9.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 19.7M, on 24 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $977.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $911.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $840.5M | 0.0% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $711.4M | 2.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $523.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $462.6M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $459.5M | 0.1% |
85 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 283 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.0B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EL
Orin answers questions about EL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 212× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 83.3×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 212×above usual | 83.3× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 2.61×above usual | 2.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.3× | — | — |
| P/B | 10.3×above usual | 7.5× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 20.9× to 244× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $109 (from $86 to $125) — 0% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$109
$86 – $125 · +0% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 212× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $39B | 212× | 27.3× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $38B | 21.4× | 9.7× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $25B | 33.7× | 21.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $33B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $47B | 35.1× | 20.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $30B | lost money | n/m | 33.5% | −14.0% | −9% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $37B | 11.1× | 13.3× | 36.5% | 19.9% | 163% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $37B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| SYYSysco Corporation | $40B | 22.4× | 13.0× | 18.5% | 2.1% | 75% |
- KHC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- KHC: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 212× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now212×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $7 a share — 93% below the $108.30 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $7 | 93% below $108.30 |
| Levered | $23 | 79% below $108.30 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.