The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. EL
Estée Lauder's fiscal 2026 results reported on August 19, 2026 show the turnaround gaining traction — organic sales rose 3% with significant operating margin expansion and management guided full-year profit above estimates on strong China demand and premium fragrance growth. However, the latest available annual fundamentals (FY2025, ended 2025-06-30) remain deeply impaired: revenue fell to $14.3B with a $1.13B net loss (EPS -$3.15), operating margin of just 6.7%, and EV/EBITDA of 27.3x — nearly double the peer median of 13.7x.
With the stock at $84.27 still below its 200-day MA of $91.55 and insiders net sellers of $978M over 24 months, the improving narrative needs to be confirmed in hard FY2026 financials before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Turnaround stalls. FY2025 revenue declined 8.46% YoY with a net loss of $1.13B; if the 3% organic growth reported in the Aug 19 news does not accelerate, the margin recovery thesis weakens.
- Valuation compression. EV/EBITDA of 27.3x is roughly double the peer median of 13.7x, leaving little room for disappointment if FY2026 results don't substantiate the guidance.
- Insider selling persists. Insiders net sold $978M of stock over the trailing 24 months with net dispositions of 19.16M shares; continued selling would undercut confidence in the turnaround.
- China demand reversal. Management's guidance hinges on strong China demand; any macro deterioration or competitive pressure in that market would directly threaten the profit forecast.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Business Wire press release, 2026-08-19 · Reuters, 2026-08-19 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 (period ended 2025-06-30) · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on EL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EL filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13D/A | 18 Sep | — | on file |
| 10-K | 19 Aug | The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 19 Aug | The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | read |
| 13G | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 6 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 28 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 24 Jul | Jennifer Hyman will retire from the Board of Directors of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $977.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $911.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $840.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Eagle Capital Management | $711.4M | 2.2% of fund |
83 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 283 Form 4 filings, net −$951.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EL
Orin answers questions about EL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 197.7× | — | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.8× | 28.5× | — |
| P/S | 2.38× | 4.42× | — |
| P/B | 9.4× | 12.6× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+3.75σ from its own mean).
11.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$102
$86 – $120 · +5% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $36B | 197.7× | 48.8× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $40B | 22.5× | 8.9× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.8× | 20.5× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $34B | 22.8× | 14.9× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $43B | 31.9× | 21.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $28B | — | — | 32.8% | -13.6% | -8% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.6× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.3× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| SYYSysco Corporation | $37B | 21.0× | 13.1× | 18.5% | 2.1% | 75% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 778.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $32 | $86.77 · −63% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $23 | $86.77 · −74% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.