Orin
ELVNYSE·Medical - Healthcare Plans

Elevance Health Inc. ELV

Market cap $87.4BP/E 17.7× trailingGross margin 39.0%Reports Wed 21 Oct, before the open
$403.01
+4.76 (+1.20%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $274.84 – $436.24
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 23 Sep · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Elevance Health trades at a 17.7x P/E, a 21% discount to the healthcare peer median of 22.4x, and has delivered four consecutive EPS beats including a 20% surprise in Q2 2026 (actual $7.45 vs. estimate $6.21). However, the FY2026 EPS guidance of $27.00 sits below the $27.16 consensus, revenue growth has decelerated sharply from 12.6% in FY2025 to just 1.4% YoY in Q2 2026, and operating margin compressed from 5.03% in FY2024 to 4.07% in FY2025.

With CEO Boudreaux making open-market purchases on July 17, 2026 and the stock holding above its 200-day MA of $364.17, the setup is balanced enough to warrant a hold until margin trends stabilize or guidance moves above consensus.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression persists. FY2025 operating margin fell to 4.07% from 5.03% in FY2024 and 6.45% in FY2021, with operating income declining to $8.11B from $8.89B year-over-year.
  • Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue grew only 1.4% YoY, down from 14.0% in Q2 2025 and 12.6% for full-year FY2025, signaling a sharp slowdown in top-line momentum.
  • Free cash flow deterioration. FY2025 free cash flow fell to $3.17B from $4.55B in FY2024 and $6.77B in FY2023, reducing financial flexibility.
  • Medicare Advantage plan exits. Recent news indicates insurers are cutting Medicare Advantage plans effective December 31, which could pressure membership and revenue in ELV's core business.

What would change my mind

FY2026 guidance raised above consensus. Management raises FY2026 EPS guidance above $27.16 in Q3 2026 earnings or investor daybullish
Further revenue deceleration. Q3 2026 revenue growth falls below 1% YoY or membership declines quarter-over-quarterbearish
Smart money outflows accelerate. 13F composite for Q3 2026 shows smart money score declining further below -0.05 with fund count dropping below 60bearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · earnings_surprises · news (Defense World, 2026-09-21) · quarterly_results. Orin's read on ELV; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$5.4B0.1% of fund
State Street$4.0B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$3.6B0.6% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.4B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$2.0B0.1% of fund
Harris Associates L P$1.9B2.5% of fund

124 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 90 Form 4 filings, net $49.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E17.7×18.4×26.4×
EV/EBITDA13.4×12.4×—
P/S0.43×0.64×—
P/B1.9×2.8×—

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.20σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

11.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

38 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$444

$391 – $498 · +10% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 27 buy or overweight
  • 11 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 22.2× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ELVElevance Health Inc.$86B17.7×13.4×39.0%2.5%11%
BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company$49B54.0×16.8×46.1%4.5%4%
CICigna Corporation$70B10.9×8.1×11.7%2.3%15%
CORCencora, Inc.$60B22.9×13.5×3.7%0.8%106%
CVSCVS Health Corporation$109B22.2×12.9×14.2%1.2%6%
GEHCGE HealthCare Technologies Inc.$30B19.1×10.9×42.9%7.9%15%
HUMHumana Inc.$46B35.7×17.3×13.7%0.9%7%
IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.$40B36.1×25.6×62.4%25.0%72%
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.$82B19.0×14.2×84.9%27.9%14%
ZTSZoetis Inc.$29B11.6×9.6×70.9%27.5%69%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 20.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 13.5×FY25 13.9×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.5×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$1118$408.22 · +174%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$924$408.22 · +126%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $403.01
52-week range$275 – $436
Analyst targets$391 – $498
Standard DCF$1118 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $408.22
Levered DCF$924 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $408.22
At own 5y-median P/E (18×)$413
At 5y P/E range (14–21×)$309 – $470
At sector P/E (26×)$594

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.