EMCOR Group, Inc. EME
EMCOR remains a buy as the AI-driven data center buildout fuels exceptional fundamental momentum: FY2025 revenue reached $17.0B with diluted EPS of $28.19—nearly quadruple the $7.06 posted in 2021—while operating margins expanded from 5.3% to 9.8% and free cash flow grew to $1.19B. Despite this growth profile, EME trades at a 26.1x P/E versus the peer median of 29.4x and a 1.98x P/S versus 4.28x, a ~11% and ~54% discount respectively, which is difficult to justify given record remaining performance obligations of $17.14B (up 44% YoY) that underpin multi-year revenue visibility.
The stock sits above both its 50-day ($798) and 200-day ($751) moving averages with a bullish MACD histogram (8.0) and neutral RSI (59.4), suggesting momentum without overextension.
What could go wrong
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 51,473 shares worth $44.4M; recent activity is dominated by small grant acquisitions with occasional open-market sales like 950 shares at $844.50 in June 2026.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $349M in FY2024 to $844M in FY2025, a 142% jump, though debt-to-equity remains modest at 0.23x.
- Data center cycle risk. Much of the growth narrative hinges on AI infrastructure demand; any slowdown in hyperscaler capex could compress the record $17.14B backlog conversion.
- Valuation compression if growth decelerates. At $836 the stock has run significantly above its 200-day MA of $751; a miss on backlog growth or margin guidance could trigger a sharp re-rating.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative table · Zacks news article 2026-08-13. Orin's read on EME; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EME filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $759.6M | 0.3% of fund |
106 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings, net −$44.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EME
Orin answers questions about EME from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.5× | 18.2× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7× | 11.0× | — |
| P/S | 1.78× | 0.81× | — |
| P/B | 8.3× | 4.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.18σ from its own mean).
12.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1055
$918 – $1200 · +43% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $33B | 23.5× | 14.7× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 27.8× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $57B | 39.9× | 28.4× | 25.7% | 12.8% | 54% |
| HUBBHubbell Incorporated | $24B | 27.4× | 20.1× | 35.2% | 14.5% | 24% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $30B | 31.1× | 17.0× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $37B | 34.2× | 20.2× | 31.7% | 19.4% | 25% |
| RKLBRocket Lab USA, Inc. | $41B | — | — | 37.3% | -21.5% | -8% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $36B | 10.3× | 7.1× | 65.1% | 5.6% | 23% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $23B | 24.0× | 18.2× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
| VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $22B | 26.3× | 15.9× | 67.7% | 28.2% | -212% |
| WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $49B | 39.2× | 22.7× | 34.3% | 10.6% | 11% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $343 | $786.76 · −56% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $583 | $786.76 · −26% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.