EMCOR Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
EMCOR Group remains a buy, driven by accelerating revenue growth—Q2 2026 revenue of $5.15B grew 19.8% YoY, outpacing FY2025's 16.6%—and steadily expanding margins, with FY2025 operating margin reaching 9.8% versus 5.1% in FY2022.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, including a 25.3% surprise in Q2 2026, while trading at a 24.2x P/E versus the peer median of 27.5x—an approximately 12% discount. AI-driven data center and critical infrastructure demand underpins continued growth, supported by $1.19B in FY2025 free cash flow and a conservative balance sheet with $468M in total debt against $3.67B in equity.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical construction slowdown. A deceleration in hyperscaler data center capex or broader nonresidential construction weakness could slow EME's double-digit revenue growth trajectory.
- Margin expansion fatigue. Operating margin has nearly doubled from 5.1% in FY2022 to 9.8% in FY2025; further expansion may be harder to achieve, limiting EPS growth upside.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 52,776 shares worth $36.3M, with 10 dispositions and no meaningful open-market acquisitions.
- Smart money outflows. Institutional smart money score is slightly negative at -0.03 as of Q2 2026 13F filings, with fund count at 68.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, Q2 2026 · peer comparison. Orin's read on EME; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 11.7% over twelve months, from $754.85 on 27 Oct 2025 to $666.36 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $943.75 on 6 May 2026; the last close is 29.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.5M, on 17 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All EME filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $759.6M | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $482.4M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $474.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $464.9M | 0.0% |
109 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$36.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EME
Orin answers questions about EME from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.2×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.7×above usual | 18.2× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.58×above usual | 0.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9×above usual | 11.0× | — |
| P/B | 7.3×above usual | 4.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,012 (from $795 to $1,200) — 52% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,012
$795 – $1,200 · +52% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $29B | 20.7× | 12.9× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 26.5× | 20.3× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | $1B | 37.6× | 11.8× | 16.1% | 1.4% | 2% |
| APGAPi Group Corporation | $18B | lost money | 23.0× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 10% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $45B | 27.8× | 19.2× | 25.6% | 13.0% | 55% |
| IESCIES Holdings, Inc. | $9B | 19.9× | 15.0× | 25.9% | 11.4% | 44% |
| LGNLegence Corp. Class A Common stock | $5B | lost money | 31.1× | 16.7% | −1.2% | −10% |
| MYRGMYR Group Inc. | $4B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 12.4% | 4.1% | 24% |
| PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation | $4B | 26.8× | 15.1× | 8.6% | 1.9% | 8% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $87B | 65.5× | 30.0× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
- APG, LGN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $310 a share — 53% below the $667.23 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $310 | 53% below $667.23 |
| Levered | $539 | 19% below $667.23 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.