Eastman Chemical Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Eastman Chemical's Q2 2026 results showed a genuine cyclical inflection — revenue grew 9.9% YoY to $2.51B and EPS recovered to $1.59, beating consensus by 8.2% — but the stock has since fallen to $62.69, well below both its 50-day ($69.54) and 200-day ($71.10) moving averages with an RSI of 32.7 signaling oversold conditions.
FY2025 was a trough year with revenue down 6.7% to $8.75B, gross margin compressed to 21.1% from 24.4% in FY2024, and EPS falling 46.5% to $4.10, so one strong quarter does not yet confirm a durable recovery. The 16.2x PE and 0.81x PS discount peers by 20.5% and 54.2% respectively, but the market is pricing in continued cyclical risk and the technical downtrend remains unbroken.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical demand deterioration. FY2025 revenue fell 6.7% YoY and net income dropped 47.6%; if Q2 2026's 9.9% revenue growth does not sustain into H2, the recovery thesis breaks.
- Margin compression persistence. Gross margin contracted from 24.4% in FY2024 to 21.1% in FY2025; if input costs or pricing pressure prevent margin recovery, earnings power remains structurally lower.
- Technical breakdown accelerates. Stock at $62.69 is below both the 50-day ($69.54) and 200-day ($71.10) moving averages with RSI at 32.7; further selling could signal deeper fundamental concerns.
- High leverage in downturn. Total debt of $5.08B against stockholders' equity of $5.96B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility if end-market demand weakens further.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 30 Jul · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on EMN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 3.7% over twelve months, from $63.78 on 27 Oct 2025 to $66.12 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $81.36 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 18.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 30.0M, on 3 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EMN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $506.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $345.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $282.7M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $223.1M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $192.4M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $178.4M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $165.4M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $160.9M | 0.6% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $146.7M | 0.0% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 104 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$246K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EMN
Orin answers questions about EMN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 12.7×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.1×above usual | 12.7× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.85×below usual | 1.14× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5×above usual | 9.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.2×below usual | 2.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $76.89 (from $68 to $85) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$76.89
$68 – $85 · +16% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 29.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | $3B | 63.8× | 11.5× | 29.4% | 2.8% | 3% |
| AVNTAvient Corporation | $4B | 23.0× | 10.9× | 32.1% | 5.3% | 8% |
| CBTCabot Corp. | $4B | 20.5× | 7.0× | 22.9% | 5.2% | 12% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $24B | lost money | 11.2× | 11.1% | −1.9% | −5% |
| ESIElement Solutions Inc | $9B | 41.4× | 22.3× | 36.6% | 5.9% | 7% |
| HUNHuntsman Corporation | $2B | lost money | 13.4× | 13.5% | −2.9% | −6% |
| IOSPInnospec Inc. | $2B | 20.4× | 12.5× | 27.5% | 6.6% | 9% |
| NGVTIngevity Corporation | $2B | 35.8× | 17.2× | 42.0% | 5.3% | 134% |
| SCLStepan Co | $1B | lost money | 13.0× | 11.8% | −0.1% | 0% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $8B | lost money | 18.2× | 5.9% | −3.9% | −5% |
- DOW, HUN, SCL, WLK: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $77 a share — 17% above the $66.18 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $77 | 17% above $66.18 |
| Levered | $39 | 42% below $66.18 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.