EOG Resources, Inc. EOG
EOG Resources trades at a 55% P/E discount (11.6x vs 25.7x peer median) and a 53% EV/EBITDA discount (5.9x vs 12.5x) to its peer group as of the latest composite, despite Q2 2026 delivering record adjusted free cash flow of $2.8B and $1.8B in shareholder returns per recent earnings coverage. The stock sits above both its 50-day ($138.44) and 200-day ($126.28) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram as of 2026-08-19, and BlackRock's reported acquisition of ~45.5M shares (~8.68% ownership) signals meaningful institutional conviction.
The core risk is that FY2025 fundamentals showed deterioration—net income fell 22.2% YoY to $4.98B, gross margin compressed to 68.1% from 75.7%, total debt surged to $8.4B from $5.07B, and FCF declined to $3.93B—but the Q2 2026 operational recovery and deeply discounted valuation argue for accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $8.4B in FY2025 from $5.07B in FY2024 while FCF fell to $3.93B from $5.77B, increasing financial risk if commodity prices weaken.
- Margin compression trend. Gross margin declined from 78.7% (FY2023) to 68.1% (FY2025) and operating margin from 41.4% to 35.1% over the same period, reflecting cost pressure or lower realized prices.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score is slightly negative at -0.0267 as of 2026-06-30, with fund count declining from 67 to 65 quarter-over-quarter.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$13.3M despite a positive net share count of +96,772, indicating more value sold than bought.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 annual. Orin's read on EOG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EOG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $7.2B | 0.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $2.3B | 0.3% of fund |
120 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 165 Form 4 filings, net −$23.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EOG
Orin answers questions about EOG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.1× | 10.8× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6× | 5.4× | — |
| P/S | 2.84× | 2.62× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | 2.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.74σ from its own mean).
7.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$162
$134 – $193 · +15% against today's price
- 39 buy or overweight
- 27 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 11.1× | 5.6× | 70.2% | 25.7% | 22% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $53B | 36.9× | 9.2× | 44.5% | 9.3% | 4% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $70B | 20.0× | 12.6× | 54.9% | 19.3% | 11% |
| SLBSLB N.V. | $76B | 24.7× | 12.1× | 16.5% | 8.5% | 12% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 55.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $312 | $142.29 · +120% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $344 | $142.29 · +142% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.