Equity Residential EQR
EQR is a hold pending the close and early integration of the AvalonBay merger to form Vivmark Residential, which shareholders overwhelmingly approved on August 12, 2026. The stock trades at a discount to residential REIT peers on P/E (28.6x vs. 30.2x median) and EV/EBITDA (14.7x vs. 16.6x median), and insiders have been net buyers over 24 months (+581k shares, +$18.9M), but technicals are deteriorating with price below the 50-day MA ($67.42), RSI at 35.4, and a bearish MACD histogram (-0.34).
FY2025 gross margin compressed sharply to 46.3% from 63.3% even as revenue grew to $3.10B, creating a conflicting fundamental signal that the merger scale benefits must resolve.
What could go wrong
- Merger integration risk. The EQR-AVB merger of equals to create Vivmark Residential closes amid a law firm investigation into deal fairness (Kahn Swick & Foti, July 30, 2026), and integration of two large coastal-focused portfolios could pressure margins further.
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross profit fell to $1.44B from $1.89B in FY2024 and operating income dropped to $1.13B from $1.82B, despite revenue growth to $3.10B — a signal that cost pressures or write-downs may be eroding operating leverage.
- Technical weakness. As of 2026-08-17, EQR trades at $63.66, below its 50-day MA of $67.42, with RSI at 35.4 and a negative MACD histogram of -0.34, suggesting near-term selling pressure that could test the 200-day MA at $63.44.
- S&P 500 index rebalancing flow. Reddit replaces AvalonBay in the S&P 500 (announced August 13, 2026), which may trigger passive index selling of AVB shares and create flow dislocations around the merger close.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Business Wire news, 2026-08-12 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-17 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · insider summary, trailing 24 months as of 2026-06-18. Orin's read on EQR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-04 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EQR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank | $2.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $718.1M | 0.0% of fund |
78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 62 Form 4 filings, net $18.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EQR
Orin answers questions about EQR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.6× | 26.2× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3× | 17.5× | — |
| P/S | 7.61× | 8.12× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.68σ from its own mean).
6.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$72
$66 – $79 · +14% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 32 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQREquity Residential | $24B | 27.6× | 14.3× | 46.0% | 27.9% | 8% |
| AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $26B | 25.2× | 18.8× | 52.7% | 33.4% | 9% |
| ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc. | $17B | 42.2× | 18.5× | 69.4% | 21.6% | 8% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $28B | 29.2× | 13.2× | 23.0% | 28.0% | 7% |
| INVHInvitation Homes Inc. | $16B | 24.3× | 13.9× | 44.4% | 23.1% | 7% |
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.3× | 15.3× | 47.3% | 18.2% | 7% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $18B | 17.8× | 15.5× | 63.9% | 34.5% | -21% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $172 | $67.72 · +153% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $92 | $67.72 · +36% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.