Orin
ESABNYSE·Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

ESAB Corporation ESAB

Market cap $4.0BP/E 24.7× trailingGross margin 35.7%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$66.49
−0.84 (−1.25%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $64.83 – $137.42
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 22 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

ESAB is a hold after the stock has corrected roughly 27% year-to-date to $78.89, bringing valuation closer to peers even as earnings continue to deteriorate. Q2 2026 results showed record core sales and adjusted EBITDA with double-digit automation growth, but diluted EPS of $1.33 missed the $1.37 consensus and FY2025 EPS fell 13.7% to $3.72 as gross margin compressed from 37.85% to 35.54% and total debt rose to $1.43B.

At 28.9x trailing earnings the stock still trades at a 22.5% premium to the peer median, but the 45% discount on price-to-sales, expanding operating margin of 17.3%, and an RSI of 36 suggest the operational franchise remains intact while much of the bad news is priced in.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression persists. Gross margin fell from 37.85% in FY2024 to 35.54% in FY2025; if input cost inflation or acquisition integration drag continues, profitability may not recover.
  • Rising debt burden. Total debt climbed from $1.16B in FY2024 to $1.43B in FY2025, increasing interest expense and pressuring net margin down to 7.98% from 9.66%.
  • Free cash flow erosion. FCF dropped from $303.6M in FY2024 to $213.3M in FY2025, a 30% decline that limits financial flexibility for buybacks or further deleveraging.
  • Cyclical industrial demand weakening. ESAB's welding and fabrication end markets are tied to industrial capex cycles; a broad manufacturing slowdown could pressure volumes despite automation strength.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings vs. consensus. EPS meets or beats consensus with gross margin recovery above 36%bullish
Sustained technical breakdown. Stock closes below $75 on rising volume, confirming new lows after the 27% YTD declinebearish
Debt reduction announcement. Company announces material debt paydown or divestiture proceeds applied to the $1.43B balancebullish
Full-year guidance cut. Management lowers FY2026 revenue or margin guidance citing end-market softnessbearish

Where this comes from: GuruFocus news (2026-08-21) and technicals last_close as of 2026-08-19 · Zacks Investment Research news (2026-08-06) · MarketBeat news (2026-08-08) · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics. Orin's read on ESAB; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$801.5M0.1% of fund
Invesco$273.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$257.4M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$244.1M0.0% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors$183.7M0.0% of fund
State Street$179.8M0.0% of fund

55 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 426 Form 4 filings, net $160.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E24.7×44.5×
EV/EBITDA14.2×
P/S1.37×
P/B1.6×
What the price assumes

7.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

10 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$135

$130$140 · +103% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 9 buy or overweight
  • 1 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 21.7× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ESABESAB Corporation$4B24.7×14.2×35.7%5.7%8%
ADTADT Inc.$5B8.2×4.6×51.4%12.0%17%
FSSFederal Signal Corporation$7B24.1×15.2×29.2%11.7%20%
MOG-AMoog Inc.$12B31.5×21.1×27.9%8.7%18%
RRyder System, Inc.$9B19.3×6.7×18.9%3.9%17%
SAIASaia, Inc.$9B33.1×14.8×16.1%8.2%11%
SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.$7B19.0×11.9×45.8%15.6%18%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 13.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY19 17.4×FY25 30.0×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $66.49
52-week range$65 – $137
Analyst targets$130 – $140
At sector P/E (45×)$122

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.