Eaton Corporation plc ETN
Eaton's secular power-management thesis remains intact — FY2025 revenue of $27.4B grew 10.3% YoY with operating margin expanding to 19.1% and EPS of $10.46, while the AI data-center buildout narrative is reinforced by the Trane collaboration and strategic acquisitions. However, at 46.2x trailing earnings and 30.6x EV/EBITDA — a 58% premium to the peer median EV/EBITDA of 19.4x — the stock prices in near-flawless execution, and persistent net insider selling of $64.1M over 24 months alongside a modest smart money score of 0.25 limits upside conviction.
Technicals are constructive with the stock above both the 50-day ($414.7) and 200-day ($378.7) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram, but the valuation cushion is thin.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 46.2x P/E versus a peer median of 33.3x, any deceleration in data-center capex or margin pressure could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Insider distribution pressure. Net insider selling of $64.1M over 24 months with 113 dispositions versus 91 acquisitions signals continued internal distribution at elevated prices.
- AI capex cycle risk. Revenue growth depends heavily on data-center electrical infrastructure spend; any slowdown in hyperscaler or sovereign AI investment would hit the highest-multiple segment.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $9.8B in FY2023 to $11.2B in FY2025 while capex rose to $919M, tightening financial flexibility if end-markets soften.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal_year 2025 · derived_metrics, fiscal_year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal_year 2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on ETN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ETN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $7.8B | 1.4% of fund |
| State Street | $7.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $6.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $4.7B | 0.3% of fund |
133 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 205 Form 4 filings, net −$64.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 44.5× | 30.2× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.6× | 21.3× | — |
| P/S | 5.67× | 4.14× | — |
| P/B | 8.4× | 5.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.56σ from its own mean).
19.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$502
$480 – $520 · +17% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETNEaton Corporation plc | $170B | 44.5× | 29.6× | 35.9% | 12.8% | 20% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $158B | 74.9× | 28.3× | 4.7% | 2.6% | 105% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| DEDeere & Company | $192B | 39.3× | 22.2× | 35.7% | 10.2% | 18% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $87B | 33.7× | 19.1× | 53.2% | 13.8% | 13% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | $67B | 8.2× | 7.4× | 36.6% | 22.7% | 42% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | $92B | 49.0× | 34.7× | 34.4% | 20.5% | 34% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.7× | 18.9× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $121B | 19.3× | 14.0× | 11.8% | 8.2% | 86% |
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | $122B | 33.6× | 22.5× | 37.7% | 17.0% | 25% |
| UNPUnion Pacific Corporation | $164B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 45.5% | 28.8% | 39% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 47.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.