Orin
ETRNYSE·Regulated Electric

Entergy Corporation ETR

Market cap $45.4BP/E 24.8× trailingGross margin 38.9%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$97.25
−0.90 (−0.92%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $90.48 – $118.45
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Entergy's growth narrative is credible — FY2025 EPS surged to $3.91 from $2.45 and Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.03 beat the Zacks consensus of $0.94 with full-year guidance affirmed — but the stock's 27.4x P/E carries a 42.8% premium to the utility peer median of 19.2x, and the fundamentals underneath that premium remain fragile: free cash flow was -$2.79B on $7.94B of CapEx, total debt climbed to $30.9B, and Q2 EPS actually declined year-over-year from $1.05 to $1.03. Smart-money scores have improved from -0.025 to 0.0421 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, and the stock's pullback below its 50-day MA to $108.52 tempers some overvaluation risk, but the negative FCF and elevated leverage leave little room for execution missteps.

Hold until there is evidence that the capex supercycle converts to rate-base earnings without equity dilution or regulatory setbacks.

What could go wrong

  • Negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of -$2.79B on $7.94B CapEx with FCF margin of -21.56% means the company is funding growth entirely with external capital, raising dilution or debt-issuance risk.
  • Valuation premium. P/E of 27.4x is 42.8% above the peer median of 19.2x; any guidance cut or rate-case setback could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Leverage. Total debt of $30.9B against stockholders' equity of $17.1B at FY2025 leaves a thin equity cushion if interest costs rise or rate recovery lags.
  • Insider net selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold $13.5M in value despite net positive share count, and the most recent SVP transaction involved selling 9,447 shares at $109.06 on 2026-07-30.

What would change my mind

Rate-case approval with constructive ROE. Regulatory commission approves a rate case in Arkansas, Louisiana, or Mississippi with an allowed ROE at or above the utility's current cost of equitybullish
FCF inflection. Annual free cash flow turns positive or CapEx declines meaningfully from the $7.94B FY2025 level, reducing external funding needsbullish
Guidance reduction. Management lowers 2026 adjusted EPS guidance or the long-term 2030 outlook during an earnings callbearish
Equity issuance. Entergy announces a sizable equity offering to fund CapEx, diluting existing shareholdersbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 and 2024 · Zacks news article, published 2026-07-29 · peer_relative data as of latest composite · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025. Orin's read on ETR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.5B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.1B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.9B0.1% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$2.9B0.2% of fund
Bank Of America /De/$2.0B0.1% of fund
Ameriprise Financial$1.6B0.3% of fund

115 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 275 Form 4 filings, net −$15.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E24.8×21.0×25.9×
EV/EBITDA13.7×11.7×—
P/S3.40×1.93×—
P/B2.4×1.9×—

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.58σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

32 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$124

$105 – $135 · +27% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 19 buy or overweight
  • 13 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 17.1× of 10 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ETREntergy Corporation$46B24.8×13.7×38.9%13.5%10%
AEEAmeren Corporation$27B17.3×11.8×41.1%17.9%12%
DDominion Energy, Inc.$53B20.9×14.5×49.3%13.9%9%
DTEDTE Energy Company$25B19.0×12.4×36.7%8.1%11%
EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.$38B16.8×9.9×76.0%12.5%9%
EXCExelon Corporation$41B14.7×10.2×24.5%11.0%10%
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.$158B16.9×15.0×71.8%32.0%17%
PCGPG&E Corporation$33B8.9×9.2×56.2%12.3%10%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated$33B16.5×13.2×85.4%16.0%12%
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.$33B19.4×13.6×62.0%16.7%12%
XELXcel Energy Inc.$43B19.0×12.5×48.8%15.3%10%

The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 44.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 16.7×FY25 23.2×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$15$111.92 · −87%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$62$111.92 · −44%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $97.25
52-week range$90 – $118
Analyst targets$105 – $135
Standard DCF$15 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $111.92
Levered DCF$62 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $111.92
At own 5y-median P/E (21×)$83
At 5y P/E range (9–31×)$36 – $121
At sector P/E (26×)$103

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.