Evergy, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Evergy's data-center growth thesis is accelerating into 2026, with Q1 and Q2 revenue growing 5.5% and 5.1% YoY respectively and both quarters beating EPS estimates by double-digit percentages, while valuation has normalized to roughly peer-in-line at 20.3x earnings versus the peer median of 20.4x.
The $21.6B investment plan and multi-gigawatt data center pipeline underpin the growth narrative, and technicals have recovered from the prior oversold condition with the stock back above its 50-day moving average at $81.50 and a positive MACD histogram of 0.43 as of 12 Oct. The main overhang remains deeply negative FY2025 free cash flow of -$751.7M alongside total debt of $15.4B, but for a regulated utility deploying capex into a visible load-growth pipeline, that leverage profile is manageable and the risk/reward has improved meaningfully since the stock's technical breakdown.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and FCF deterioration. FY2025 free cash flow was -$751.7M with capex of $2.8B and total debt rising to $15.4B from $14.1B in FY2024; sustained negative FCF could pressure the BBB+ credit rating if data-center load materialization slips.
- Regulatory pushback on rate increases. The data-center-driven capex program requires regulatory approval for rate-base recovery; public and regulatory scrutiny over rate increases could delay or reduce the allowed return on the $21.6B investment plan.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 30,356 shares worth approximately $2.4M, with the CFO selling 5,999 shares at $78.79 on 1 Oct; persistent insider dispositions may signal limited confidence at current levels.
- EPS growth inconsistency. FY2025 EPS declined 3.4% to $3.66 from $3.79 in FY2024, and earnings surprises have been mixed with Q4 2025 missing by 23.8% and Q1 2025 missing by 18.6%, suggesting execution risk in translating capex into earnings.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 FY26 results · earnings vs estimates, 6 Aug · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on EVRG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.9% over twelve months, from $78.31 on 27 Oct 2025 to $85.30 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $88.13 on 2 Jul 2026; the last close is 3.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.8M, on 19 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EVRG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $979.2M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $739.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $637.1M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $572.8M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $559.9M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $343.2M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $238.7M | 0.0% |
86 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 131 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EVRG
Orin answers questions about EVRG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.9×); the typical Utilities company on the NASDAQ is at 28.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.0×above usual | 17.9× | 28.1× |
| P/S | 3.16×above usual | 2.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0×near usual | 11.6× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×above usual | 1.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $89.67 (from $85 to $97) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$89.67
$85 – $97 · +5% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $20B | 19.0× | 12.0× | 50.0% | 16.7% | 10% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ESEversource Energy | $27B | 18.6× | 10.2× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $27B | 24.7× | 12.8× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| OGEOGE Energy Corp. | $10B | 21.4× | 11.1× | 53.6% | 14.6% | 11% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.