Exelon Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Exelon remains attractively valued at a 15.9x P/E — roughly 24% below the regulated-electric peer median of 20.8x — despite five consecutive years of EPS growth reaching $2.74 in fiscal 2025 with 11.8% YoY EPS growth and operating margin expansion to 21.2%.
Quarterly revenue momentum is accelerating, with Q2 2026 revenue up 10.0% YoY to $5.97B and Q1 2026 up 7.9% to $7.24B, while the stock at $43.50 still trades below its 200-day moving average of $45.56. The sharp gross margin contraction from 40.8% to 27.9% in FY2025 warrants scrutiny, but operating margin actually expanded from 18.8% to 21.2%, indicating cost discipline is offsetting top-line mix shifts. Persistent negative FCF of -$2.28B and total debt of $50.6B are characteristic of a regulated utility deploying $8.53B in capex and do not, in isolation, undermine the investment case at this valuation discount.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin erosion. Gross margin collapsed from 40.8% in FY2024 to 27.9% in FY2025, with Q4 2025 showing negative gross profit of -$1.17B. If this reflects structural cost pressures rather than transient mix shifts, operating margin expansion could reverse.
- Negative free cash flow. FCF was -$2.28B in FY2025 with capex of $8.53B, and FCF has been negative for at least five consecutive years. Sustained cash burn combined with rising total debt from $46.6B to $50.6B could pressure the balance sheet if rate cases are unfavorable.
- Q2 2026 earnings miss. Q2 2026 actual EPS of $0.43 missed the estimate of $0.44 by 1.3%, breaking a streak of consistent beats. A pattern of misses could compress the valuation multiple further.
- Technical overhead resistance. The stock at $43.50 remains below its 200-day moving average of $45.56, and RSI at 64.8 limits near-term upside momentum. Failure to reclaim the 200-day MA could cap the recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on EXC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 7.0% over twelve months, from $48.07 on 27 Oct 2025 to $44.70 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $50.29 on 16 Mar 2026; the last close is 11.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 24.2M, on 12 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EXC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.4B | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Lazard Asset Management | $1.5B | 2.3% |
| Wellington Management Group | $939.2M | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $751.1M | 0.0% |
98 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 116 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXC
Orin answers questions about EXC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.9×); the typical Utilities company on the NASDAQ is at 28.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.3×near usual | 15.9× | 28.1× |
| P/S | 1.82×near usual | 1.82× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7×near usual | 10.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.5×above usual | 1.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $46.40 (from $41 to $50) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$46.40
$41 – $50 · +4% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $31B | 19.4× | 7.5× | 29.2% | 17.9% | 12% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $71B | 22.4× | 14.4× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $20 a share — 54% below the $44.33 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $20 | 54% below $44.33 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.