EXCNasdaq·Regulated Electric

Exelon Corporation EXC

Market cap $41.9BP/E 14.9× trailingGross margin 24.5%Reports Tue 3 Nov, before the open

$40.69

−1.11 (−2.66%)Wed close 16:00 ET

52-wk $40.62 – $50.65

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Orin's take

0.60conviction · moderate

Refreshed 25 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Exelon screens cheap at 16.2x P/E versus a 20.7x peer median and has delivered five straight years of EPS growth from $1.74 to $2.74 through fiscal 2025, with operating margin expanding to 21.2% and operating cash flow reaching $6.25B. However, persistent negative free cash flow (-$2.28B in 2025), total debt climbing to $50.6B, and a sharp gross margin contraction from 40.8% to 27.9% year-over-year raise questions about cost pass-through dynamics and leverage sustainability, while the stock trades below both its 50-day ($46.15) and 200-day ($46.01) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram.

The ICC approval of ComEd's DeKalb County transmission plan is a constructive regulatory signal, but the combination of weak technicals, rising debt, and compressed gross margins warrants patience rather than conviction at current levels.

What could go wrong

Gross margin collapse. Gross margin fell from 40.8% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025 with gross profit declining from $9.4B to $6.8B despite revenue growth of 5.3%, suggesting cost recovery mechanisms may be under pressure.
Negative free cash flow and rising leverage. FCF has been negative for five consecutive years (-$2.28B in 2025) with capex of $8.53B, while total debt rose to $50.6B from $46.6B year-over-year.
Technical breakdown. Stock at $44.31 trades below both its 50-day MA ($46.15) and 200-day MA ($46.01) with RSI at 39.6 and a negative MACD histogram, indicating bearish momentum.
Regulatory and rate-case risk. Exelon's earnings depend on favorable regulatory outcomes across multiple jurisdictions, particularly Illinois where ComEd operates; adverse rate decisions could compress allowed returns.

What would change my mind

Rate case approval or constructive regulatory order. A major Illinois or multi-state rate case outcome grants ROE at or above requested levels, supporting earnings power and narrowing the valuation gap to peers.bullish

FCF improvement or capex moderation. Capex declines or operating cash flow growth narrows FCF deficit meaningfully, reducing reliance on debt funding and stabilizing the balance sheet.bullish

Gross margin deterioration persists into 2026. Q3 or Q4 2026 results show gross margin remains below 30% without a clear regulatory recovery mechanism, signaling structural cost pressure.bearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals annual · derived_metrics · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on EXC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All EXC filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	25 Aug	Exelon announced a broad executive leadership reshuffle under Item 5.02, most notably the 2027 departure (date TBD) of Michael Innocenzo from his roles as EVP and COO of Exelon…	read
10-Q	30 Jul	Exelon Corporation reported total operating revenues of $5,967 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 10.0% year-over-year from $5,427 million in the prior year period.	read
8-K	30 Jul	Exelon Corporation announced its second quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026, via press release, triggering Items 2.02, 7.01, and 9.01.	read
13G/A	8 Jul	—	on file
10-Q	6 May	Exelon reported first-quarter 2026 net income attributable to common shareholders of $919 million, up $11 million from $908 million in 1Q25, while diluted EPS was flat at $0.90.	read
8-K	6 May	Exelon filed an 8-K on May 6, 2026, furnishing (not filing) its first-quarter 2026 earnings release and conference-call slides under Items 2.02, 7.01 and 9.01; no numerical…	read
8-K	30 Apr	Exelon’s 2026 annual meeting on April 28 produced no surprises: all nine directors received 92.8%-99.3% “for” votes, PwC was ratified with 89.0% support, and the advisory…	read
13G	29 Apr	—	on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
State Street	$3.1B	0.1% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$3.1B	0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$2.6B	0.1% of fund
Capital World Investors	$2.4B	0.3% of fund
Invesco	$1.8B	0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$1.5B	0.1% of fund

95 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 112 Form 4 filings, net −$5.9M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about EXC

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	14.9×	15.9×	25.9×
EV/EBITDA	10.3×	10.3×	—
P/S	1.66×	1.82×	—
P/B	1.4×	1.4×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.96σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

37 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$48

$41 – $50 · +18% against today's price

How they rate it

14 buy or overweight
21 hold
2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.5× of 17 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
EXCExelon Corporation	$42B	14.9×	10.3×	24.5%	11.0%	10%
AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.	$64B	20.3×	13.7×	49.0%	13.9%	10%
CMSCMS Energy Corporation	$20B	18.7×	12.4×	69.7%	11.6%	11%
CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc.	$24B	21.9×	12.3×	54.1%	11.6%	10%
DDominion Energy, Inc.	$54B	21.2×	14.5×	49.3%	13.9%	9%
DUKDuke Energy Corporation	$89B	17.1×	11.1×	68.2%	15.7%	10%
EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.	$38B	16.8×	9.9×	76.0%	12.5%	9%
EIXEdison International	$21B	5.5×	8.2×	39.9%	19.8%	22%
ETREntergy Corporation	$46B	25.1×	13.8×	38.9%	13.5%	10%
EVRGEvergy, Inc.	$18B	19.5×	12.3×	40.1%	15.3%	9%
FEFirstEnergy Corp.	$25B	23.3×	11.6×	53.4%	6.9%	9%
LNTAlliant Energy Corporation	$16B	20.1×	13.8×	42.0%	18.4%	11%
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.	$161B	17.2×	15.1×	71.8%	32.0%	17%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated	$34B	16.7×	13.3×	85.4%	16.0%	12%
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation	$11B	17.3×	10.3×	55.5%	11.5%	9%
PPLPPL Corporation	$24B	26.1×	13.4×	34.6%	13.5%	9%
SOThe Southern Company	$96B	20.0×	12.0×	43.4%	15.4%	13%
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.	$33B	19.5×	13.6×	62.0%	16.7%	12%

The median is of the 17 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 23.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 14.0×FY25 15.9×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities

FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$1	$45.83 · −99%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$-83	$45.83 · −281%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $40.69

52-week range$41 – $51

Analyst targets$41 – $50

Standard DCF$1 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $45.83

Levered DCF$-83 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $45.83

At own 5y-median P/E (16×)$44

At 5y P/E range (15–24×)$42 – $65

At sector P/E (26×)$71

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.