Expand Energy Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Expand Energy trades at roughly half peer valuations—7.54x P/E and 3.52x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 14.82x and 7.18x—despite FY2025 revenue of $11.65B, net income of $1.82B, and $1.84B in free cash flow, with total debt cut from $5.83B to $5.06B.
Q2 2026 revenue declined ~20% YoY to $2.96B, but the company beat EPS estimates by 17.7% ($1.33 vs $1.13), and the stock at $88.12 sits below both its 50-day ($92.87) and 200-day ($98.10) moving averages near a 52-week low of $83.70. With zero insider dispositions across 24 months, net insider buying of 13,500 shares including the interim CEO's purchase at $88.90, and a 'Moderate Buy' analyst consensus, the risk-reward favors accumulation at these depressed levels.
What could go wrong
- Natural gas price weakness. Q2 2026 revenue already fell ~20% YoY to $2.96B; sustained low gas prices could compress margins and FCF further.
- Leverage. Total debt stands at $5.06B as of FY2025, and while down from $5.83B, it remains substantial relative to equity.
- Revenue volatility. FY2024 revenue collapsed to $4.22B from $7.78B in FY2023 before rebounding to $11.65B in FY2025, demonstrating high sensitivity to commodity cycles.
- Technical downtrend. Stock trades below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages and recently hit a 52-week low of $83.70, indicating bearish momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on EXE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 8.9% over twelve months, from $103.88 on 27 Oct 2025 to $94.62 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $122.89 on 3 Dec 2025; the last close is 23.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.8M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EXE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $611.7M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $605.8M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $552.7M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $491.1M | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $324.2M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $300.2M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 8 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXE
Orin answers questions about EXE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 8.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Energy company on the NASDAQ is at 15.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1× | — | 15.1× |
| P/S | 1.60×above usual | 1.31× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4× | — | — |
| P/B | 0.0×below usual | 1.3× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 1.2× to 14.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 1.2× to 20.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $122 (from $93 to $141) — 29% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$122
$93 – $141 · +29% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 8.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (EQT 12.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $22B | 8.1× | 3.4× | 63.5% | 20.1% | 14% |
| EQTEQT Corporation | $35B | 12.4× | 6.0× | 80.1% | 30.9% | 11% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 8.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now8.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 15.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now15.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $752 a share — 702% above the $93.82 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $752 | 702% above $93.82 |
| Levered | $286 | 205% above $93.82 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.