Expand Energy Corporation EXE
Expand Energy trades at roughly half the valuation of E&P peers—7.45x P/E vs a 14.82x peer median and 3.49x EV/EBITDA vs 7.20x—despite FY2025's robust recovery to $11.65B revenue, $1.82B net income, and $1.84B free cash flow, with total debt reduced from $5.83B to $5.06B. Q2 2026 revenue fell ~20% YoY to $2.96B, yet the company beat EPS estimates by 17.7% ($1.33 vs $1.13), and with RSI at 28.9 and the stock at $87.04—below both its 50-day ($93.50) and 200-day ($99.47) moving averages—the selloff looks overdone.
Net insider buying of ~145K shares over 24 months, including the interim CEO's June purchase at $88.90, plus new institutional positions from Amundi and Brigade Capital, support a contrarian long at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Gas price weakness. Q2 2026 revenue declined ~20% YoY to $2.96B, demonstrating sensitivity to natural gas pricing; a prolonged downturn would compress margins further.
- Rising leverage. The September 2026 pricing of $500M in 5.650% senior notes due 2031 adds to existing $5.06B in total debt (as of FY2025), increasing balance-sheet risk if cash flow softens.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $87.04 is below both 50-day ($93.50) and 200-day ($99.47) moving averages with a bearish MACD histogram of -1.22 and unusually heavy put activity noted on September 22, 2026.
- Earnings volatility. FY2024 showed how quickly results can deteriorate—operating loss of $803M, near-zero FCF of $8M, and EPS of -$4.55—underscoring the cyclical risk inherent in gas-weighted E&P.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 · FMP FY2024 · peer_relative · quarterly_results Q2 2026. Orin's read on EXE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EXE filingsLargest holders · 13F
Money flowNo 13F positioning on file.
Insiders, last 24 months: 59 Form 4 filings, net $2.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 9 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXE
Orin answers questions about EXE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5× | 2.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.53× | 1.31× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 1.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.63σ from its own mean).
-0.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$121
$93 – $147 · +40% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $21B | 7.6× | 3.5× | 63.1% | 20.8% | 15% |
| CTRACoterra Energy Inc. | $25B | 14.8× | 5.7× | 39.0% | 21.7% | 11% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corporation | $54B | 11.6× | 7.3× | 34.0% | 16.7% | 15% |
| EQTEQT Corporation | $32B | 11.4× | 6.1× | 68.4% | 30.7% | 12% |
| HALHalliburton Company | $27B | 17.1× | 8.1× | 15.1% | 7.2% | 15% |
| TPLTexas Pacific Land Corporation | $23B | 43.1× | 31.0× | 100.3% | 60.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 48.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $851 | $90.06 · +845% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $334 | $90.06 · +270% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.