Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
EXPD remains a hold.
Q2 2026 revenue surged 32.1% YoY to $3.50B with EPS of $2.03 beating estimates by 20.1%, and Q1 2026 EPS of $1.71 beat by 28.6%, signaling a genuine freight-cycle inflection — but at $187.46 the stock trades at 27.2x trailing earnings (18.3% above the peer median of 23.0x) and 19.1x EV/EBITDA (50.8% above the peer median of 12.7x), pricing in much of the recovery. FY2025 full-year results temper the enthusiasm: revenue grew just 4.4% and net income only 0.5%, while a near-zero smart money score of 0.00 as of 30 Jun and net insider selling of $11.9M over 24 months provide no catalyst to chase the rally. With MACD histogram at -0.97 and RSI at 50.1, momentum has cooled from the post-earnings surge, suggesting the market is digesting the run rather than extending it.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 27.2x PE and 19.1x EV/EBITDA — 18.3% and 50.8% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in Q3 2026 could trigger a sharp de-rating given the premium already embedded.
- Freight cycle reversal. Q2 2026's 32.1% revenue growth likely reflects tariff-driven customs demand and airfreight strength that may prove temporary; FY2025's full-year revenue growth was only 4.4%, highlighting cyclicality.
- Insider and smart money divergence. Net insider selling of $11.9M over 24 months and a smart money score of 0.00 as of 30 Jun suggest sophisticated holders are not adding conviction despite the operational beat.
- Margin sustainability. FY2025 gross margin expanded to 15.3% from 12.7% in FY2024, but operating margin compressed to 9.5% from 9.8%, indicating cost pressures that could intensify if freight rates normalize.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 4 Aug · earnings vs estimates, 5 May · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on EXPD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 66.9% over twelve months, from $119.65 on 27 Oct 2025 to $199.64 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. That is its highest close in that time.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.2M, on 12 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EXPD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $577.8M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $421.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $382.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $353.7M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $295.1M | 0.0% |
| Marshfield Associates | $253.3M | 5.9% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 276 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$7.6M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXPD
Orin answers questions about EXPD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.3×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.0×above usual | 19.3× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.16×above usual | 1.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2×above usual | 13.0× | — |
| P/B | 12.5×above usual | 7.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $179 (from $145 to $220) — 10% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$179
$145 – $220 · −10% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $26B | 29.0× | 20.2× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $17B | 27.0× | 18.4× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $73B | 16.7× | 9.6× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| LSTRLandstar System, Inc. | $6B | 35.8× | 22.0× | 17.7% | 3.0% | 19% |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $80B | 19.7× | 9.8× | 16.6% | 5.1% | 29% |
- LSTR: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $70 a share — 65% below the $198.80 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $70 | 65% below $198.80 |
| Levered | $71 | 65% below $198.80 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.