Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD
EXPD remains a hold. Q2 2026 earnings surged 51.5% on airfreight demand and customs brokerage strength, but at $186.44 the stock trades well above its 50-day MA of $172.24 and 200-day MA of $155.56 with RSI at 64.1, and at 27.1x trailing earnings (15.2% above peer median) and 19.0x EV/EBITDA (36.6% above peer median), much of the beat appears priced in.
FY2025 full-year results — revenue growth of just 4.4% and net income growth of 0.5% despite gross margin expansion to 15.31% — have not confirmed that quarterly strength is sustainable across a full cycle, while ocean freight contraction and tariff-driven customs demand that may prove temporary cloud the outlook. A near-zero smart money score of 0.0182 as of 2026-06-30 and net insider selling value of $11.9M over 24 months add no conviction to chase the rally here.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium unwinds. At 27.1x trailing earnings and 19.0x EV/EBITDA — 15.2% and 36.6% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in quarterly results could trigger a sharp de-rating toward the peer median EV/EBITDA of 13.9x.
- Ocean freight contraction. A Seeking Alpha article notes EXPD's ocean freight business is contracting sharply even as airfreight and customs brokerage benefit from tariff complexity, creating an uneven growth profile that may not persist.
- Tariff-driven demand is cyclical. Customs brokerage strength tied to tariff policy and trade-route restructuring may fade as supply chains normalize, leaving FY2025's modest 4.4% revenue growth as the underlying run-rate.
- Insider distribution. Net insider selling value of $11.9M over 24 months with 276 transactions, including a recent sale by director Gulyas at $178.56 on 2026-08-06, signals limited insider conviction at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-04 · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on EXPD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EXPD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $577.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $421.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $382.6M | 0.0% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 276 Form 4 filings, net −$11.9M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXPD
Orin answers questions about EXPD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.7× | 19.3× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.7× | 13.6× | — |
| P/S | 2.00× | 1.47× | — |
| P/B | 11.5× | 7.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.43σ from its own mean).
10.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$170
$145 – $210 · −9% against today's price
- 5 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 7 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $24B | 26.7× | 18.7× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 26.5× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $17B | 27.5× | 19.1× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $22B | 32.5× | 13.8× | 16.3% | 5.3% | 19% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.6× | 12.9× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| PNRPentair plc | $8B | 13.2× | 10.9× | 41.3% | 16.2% | 17% |
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19B | 18.5× | 12.4× | 51.2% | 20.4% | 17% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 18.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $74 | $164.88 · −55% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $77 | $164.88 · −54% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.