Expedia Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Expedia's operating momentum is accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue grew 14.0% YoY to $4.32B with EPS of $7.16 beating estimates by 10.3%, and FY2025 operating margin expanded to 12.7% from 9.6% the prior year — yet the stock trades at just 16.4x earnings, a 40.5% discount to the peer median of 27.6x and below even Booking Holdings at 17.7x.
With FCF margin of 21.1% generating $3.11B in FY2025, consistent EPS beats across the last four quarters, and smart money scores improving from -0.01 to 0.03 with fund count rising from 54 to 64 over the past year, the risk/reward has shifted from balanced to attractive. The AI disintermediation overhang from Meta's Muse platform is real but the partnership keeps Expedia in the transaction flow, and B2B bookings exceeding $10B provide a structural revenue stream that is harder to disintermediate.
What could go wrong
- AI disintermediation. Meta's Muse AI shopping agents could bypass OTAs entirely, and Booking and Expedia are taking opposite strategic bets on how to respond, creating unquantifiable structural risk to the aggregator model.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 40,398 shares worth $10.3M, with recent open-market sales in August 2026 at $323-335 per share, well above the current $274.22 close.
- High leverage. Total debt of $6.67B against stockholders' equity of just $1.28B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and amplifies downside in a travel downturn.
- Seasonal Q1 weakness. Q1 2026 produced a net loss of $6M with EPS of -$0.05 despite 14.7% revenue growth, highlighting earnings volatility in seasonally weak quarters.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on EXPE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 25.0% over twelve months, from $222.50 on 27 Oct 2025 to $278.08 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $339.13 on 24 Aug 2026; the last close is 18.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.1M, on 5 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EXPE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Windacre Partnership | $1.0B | 9.9% |
| AQR Capital Management | $794.4M | 0.3% |
| Norges Bank | $734.3M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $641.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $620.5M | 0.0% |
102 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 417 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$10.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXPE
Orin answers questions about EXPE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 27.5×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.6×below usual | 27.5× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 1.92×above usual | 1.79× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8×below usual | 11.8× | — |
| P/B | 19.8×above usual | 14.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $336 (from $235 to $430) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$336
$235 – $430 · +21% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.6× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (ABNB 31.4×, BKNG 16.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | $31B | 15.6× | 7.8× | 90.5% | 13.0% | 179% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $102B | 31.4× | 29.4× | 78.5% | 23.0% | 39% |
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | $113B | 16.6× | 10.8× | 100.0% | 25.5% | n/m |
- BKNG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $206 a share — 26% below the $279.46 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $206 | 26% below $279.46 |
| Levered | $359 | 29% above $279.46 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.