Extra Space Storage Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Extra Space Storage's fundamentals are gradually improving — Q2 2026 revenue grew 3.9% YoY, accelerating from Q3 2025's -9.0% decline, and management raised 2026 Core FFO guidance — while the stock trades at a 26.3% EV/EBITDA discount to the REIT peer median (13.1x vs 17.8x).
However, with RSI at 31.7 and the stock at $131.68 below both its 50-day ($143.32) and 200-day ($141.75) moving averages, the technical trend remains broken, total debt stands at $15.0B, and 24-month net insider selling of 43,127 shares with no cluster buying signals limited insider conviction. A 14.3% P/E premium to the peer median adds to the mixed valuation picture, keeping the call at hold until technicals stabilize or revenue reacceleration is sustained.
What could go wrong
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $15.0B in FY2025 from $13.0B in FY2024; higher-for-longer rates could pressure interest coverage and FFO growth.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $131.68 trades below both MA50 ($143.32) and MA200 ($141.75) with a negative MACD histogram (-0.34), suggesting bearish momentum has not reversed despite oversold RSI of 31.7.
- Revenue growth fragility. FY2025 revenue growth collapsed to 1.2% YoY from 27.6% in 2024; if quarterly acceleration (Q2 2026 +3.9%) stalls, the 14.3% P/E premium to peers becomes harder to justify.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, 46 dispositions vs 27 acquisitions resulted in net selling of 43,127 shares with no cluster buy detected.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · peer comparison, 28 Sep · technicals, 28 Sep · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on EXR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.3% over twelve months, from $149.51 on 27 Oct 2025 to $144.55 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $152.85 on 29 Jul 2026; the last close is 5.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.1M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EXR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $915.4M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $888.8M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $739.4M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $602.9M | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $430.8M | 0.1% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 73 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$4.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXR
Orin answers questions about EXR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 33.8×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.4×below usual | 33.8× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 8.64×below usual | 10.0× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8×below usual | 19.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.9× to 9.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $157 (from $146 to $172) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$157
$146 – $172 · +9% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 49.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $31B | 29.4× | 12.8× | n/a | 29.3% | 8% |
| CUBECubeSmart | $9B | 27.8× | 18.0× | n/a | 29.4% | 12% |
| PSAPublic Storage | $58B | 32.6× | 20.7× | n/a | 37.8% | 18% |
| SMASmartstop Self Storage REIT Inc | $2B | 66.6× | 14.5× | n/a | 13.5% | 3% |
| UHALU-Haul Holding Company | $10B | 164× | 10.2× | 72.7% | 1.4% | 1% |
- EXR, CUBE, PSA, SMA: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $159 a share — 10% above the $144.44 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $159 | 10% above $144.44 |
| Levered | $131 | 9% below $144.44 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.