Extra Space Storage Inc. EXR
Extra Space Storage remains a hold: the company posted solid 2025 net income growth of 14.0% and a 54.2% FCF margin, but full-year revenue growth collapsed to just 1.2% YoY after 27.6% in 2024, and total debt climbed to $15.0B from $13.0B. The stock trades at a 32.7x P/E — an 18.2% premium to the REIT peer median of 27.6x — yet offers a 23.3% EV/EBITDA discount to peers (14.2x vs 18.5x), creating a mixed valuation picture.
The August 24 announcement of CEO Joe Margolis's retirement with Noah Springer succeeding him January 1, 2027 adds transition risk, while net insider selling of 43,127 shares over 24 months and a neutral RSI of 50.5 with a negative MACD histogram suggest limited near-term catalysts.
What could go wrong
- Revenue stagnation. FY2025 revenue growth of 1.2% YoY is a sharp deceleration from 27.6% in 2024 and 33.0% in 2023; if top-line growth fails to reaccelerate, the P/E premium to peers becomes harder to justify.
- Leverage buildup. Total debt rose to $15.0B at year-end 2025 from $13.0B in 2024 and $11.3B in 2023, increasing balance-sheet sensitivity to interest-rate movements.
- CEO transition execution. Noah Springer becomes CEO effective January 1, 2027; leadership transitions in REITs can disrupt acquisition strategy and operational momentum.
- Insider selling signal. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 43,127 shares across 73 transactions with 46 dispositions versus 27 acquisitions, including recent sales by the CFO, CIO, and Chief Legal Officer.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025/FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025/FY2024 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on EXR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EXR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $915.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $888.8M | 0.0% of fund |
81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 73 Form 4 filings, net $5.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EXR
Orin answers questions about EXR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.1× | 33.8× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8× | 19.9× | — |
| P/S | 8.69× | 10.04× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | 2.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.11σ from its own mean).
4.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$160
$148 – $172 · +19% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $30B | 31.1× | 13.8× | 23.0% | 28.0% | 7% |
| AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $26B | 25.2× | 18.8× | 52.7% | 33.4% | 9% |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | $13B | 172.5× | 30.4× | 76.5% | 2.1% | 1% |
| CUBECubeSmart | $9B | 27.2× | 17.8× | 17.4% | 29.4% | 12% |
| EQREquity Residential | $24B | 27.6× | 14.3× | 46.0% | 27.9% | 8% |
| INVHInvitation Homes Inc. | $17B | 26.1× | 14.5× | 44.4% | 23.1% | 7% |
| IRMIron Mountain Incorporated | $34B | 82.1× | 21.4× | 54.2% | 5.5% | -38% |
| PSAPublic Storage | $57B | 29.1× | 19.8× | 60.4% | 41.8% | 22% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $8B | — | — | 61.0% | -39.7% | -5% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $20B | 20.6× | 16.8× | 63.9% | 34.5% | -21% |
| VICIVICI Properties Inc. | $28B | 9.9× | 12.5× | 99.3% | 67.5% | 10% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $179 | $151.27 · +19% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $150 | $151.27 · −1% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.