Ford Motor Company F
Ford's Q2 2026 GAAP results deteriorated sharply with a $1.33B net loss (EPS -$0.33) and revenue declining 3.8% YoY to $48.3B, even as adjusted EPS of $0.42 beat consensus, highlighting the gap between underlying operations and reported results. The stock has fallen to $12.94, below both its 50-day ($14.05) and 200-day ($13.53) moving averages with an RSI of 36.9, while FY2025's $8.2B net loss, gross margin compression to 12.2% (from 13.8% in 2023), and $167.6B total debt against $36.0B equity underscore structural margin pressure.
However, $12.5B in FY2025 free cash flow, a 0.27 P/S ratio (91% below the peer median of 3.06), and still-positive smart money interest at 0.0071 as of Q2 2026 keep this a hold rather than a sell.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin has declined steadily from 18.0% in FY2021 to 12.2% in FY2025, with Q2 2026 gross profit of only $6.08B on $48.3B revenue showing no reversal.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $167.6B against stockholders' equity of $36.0B as of FY2025 leaves little room to absorb further losses or fund EV transition costs.
- Revenue deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue fell 3.8% YoY to $48.3B, the first negative quarterly growth in the provided data, following FY2025's anemic 1.2% growth.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score declined from 0.0289 as of 2025-12-31 to 0.0071 as of 2026-06-30, a consistent downtrend across three consecutive quarters.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, Q2 2026 · fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-09-23 · peer_relative. Orin's read on F; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All F filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
110 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 370 Form 4 filings, net −$26.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about F
Orin answers questions about F from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 0.27× | 0.28× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.44σ from its own mean).
-15.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $12.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$16
$15 – $18 · +28% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 23 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFord Motor Company | $52B | — | — | 10.8% | -3.9% | -19% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $46B | 28.7× | 20.5× | 51.9% | 11.9% | -53% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $27B | 18.5× | 12.1× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $39B | 13.3× | 10.8× | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $76B | 41.9× | 13.9× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | $75B | 28.1× | 18.4× | 29.9% | 10.8% | 42% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-16 | $14.35 · −209% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $43 | $14.35 · +201% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.