Ford Motor Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ford remains a hold following Q2 2026's $1.3B GAAP net loss (EPS -$0.33) on $48.3B revenue (-3.8% YoY), which reversed Q1 2026's $2.5B profit and underscores the earnings volatility around its EV transition.
The stock has slipped to $12.12 (as of 7 Oct) below both the 50-day ($13.64) and 200-day ($13.48) moving averages with RSI at 33.8, while FY2025 closed with an $8.2B net loss, gross-margin compression to 12.2%, and $167.6B total debt against $36.0B equity. However, $12.5B in FY2025 free cash flow, a 0.26 P/S ratio (89% below the peer median of 2.28), and rising hybrid demand amid a reported 80% YoY Q3 EV sales decline argue against capitulation.
What could go wrong
- EV transition drag. Q3 EV sales reportedly fell ~80% YoY while FY2025 absorbed an $8.2B net loss including a $11.1B Q4 charge, suggesting continued restructuring/impairment risk in Ford Model e.
- Leverage. Total debt of $167.6B against $36.0B stockholders' equity (as of 31 Dec 2025) leaves little margin for error if auto demand softens or Ford Credit losses rise.
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell to 12.2% in FY2025 from 13.8% in FY2023, and operating margin of 1.4% remains well below FY2022's 4.1%.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $12.12 is below 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI 33.8; a loss of $12 could accelerate momentum selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 7 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on F; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 11.7% over twelve months, from $13.26 on 27 Oct 2025 to $11.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $17.44 on 29 May 2026; the last close is 32.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 216.3M, on 13 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All F filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.9B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $737.8M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $718.7M | 0.1% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $717.2M | 0.1% |
113 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 378 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about F
Orin answers questions about F from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.25× its yearly sales — below its usual level (0.28×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 6.7× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.25×below usual | 0.28× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $15.79 (from $14 to $17.50) — 35% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$15.79
$14 – $17.50 · +35% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (GM 18.2×, TSLA 412×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFord Motor Company | $47B | lost money | — | 10.8% | −3.9% | −19% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $68B | 18.2× | 11.6× | 9.0% | 2.1% | 6% |
| TSLATesla, Inc. | $1.61T | 412× | 143× | 19.3% | 3.1% | 4% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $37 a share — 219% above the $11.69 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $37 | 219% above $11.69 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.