Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fortune Brands Innovations remains a show-me turnaround story trading at $40.04, below both its 50-day ($42.14) and 200-day ($45.69) moving averages, with revenue declining for a fifth consecutive year — FY2025 revenue of $4.46B was down 3.2% YoY and Q2 2026 revenue fell 4.1% YoY while GAAP operating income went negative at -$9M.
The stock's 32.6x trailing P/E sits 80% above the peer median of 18.1x, a premium hard to justify against deteriorating earnings (FY2025 EPS of $2.47 vs $3.75 in FY2024). Positive signals include the October 15, 2026 agreement to divest Fiberon, CEO Jesse Singh's open-market purchases in August 2026 at ~$51 per share, Greenlight Capital initiating a position in Q2 2026, and an improving smart money score of 0.03 as of Q2 2026 — but none of these offset the fundamental weakness yet. Patience is warranted until Q3 2026 earnings on November 3 clarify whether the new CEO's strategy is gaining traction.
What could go wrong
- Shareholder investigation overhang. Purcell & Lefkowitz LLP announced a shareholder investigation on September 24, 2026, which could signal undisclosed governance or disclosure issues and creates uncertainty ahead of Q3 earnings.
- Valuation premium on deteriorating earnings. At 32.6x trailing P/E versus a peer median of 18.1x (80% premium) and 16.5x EV/EBITDA versus 11.9x peer median (39% premium), FBIN leaves little room for further earnings disappointment.
- Revenue decline persists. Revenue has fallen every year since FY2021's $4.80B peak to $4.46B in FY2025, and Q2 2026 continued the trend at -4.1% YoY, raising questions about whether the new CEO can stabilize the top line.
- GAAP-to-adjusted EPS gap. Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was -$0.19 with negative operating income of -$9M, yet adjusted EPS reportedly beat consensus at $1.35 versus a $0.80 estimate, a wide gap that warrants scrutiny on what adjustments are being excluded.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 27 Dec 2025 · results, quarter to 27 Jun · peer comparison, 16 Oct · insider trades, 7 Aug. Orin's read on FBIN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 16.4% over twelve months, from $51.55 on 27 Oct 2025 to $43.09 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $64.44 on 10 Feb 2026; the last close is 33.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.4M, on 13 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FBIN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $418.9M | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $294.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $285.0M | 0.0% |
| Garden Investment Management | $216.6M | 27.1% |
| State Street | $210.1M | 0.0% |
| Freestone Grove Partners | $136.1M | 0.9% |
| DME Capital Management | $123.1M | 3.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $120.8M | 0.0% |
| Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | $95.5M | 0.1% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $28.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FBIN
Orin answers questions about FBIN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 35.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.3×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.0×above usual | 18.3× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.17×below usual | 1.87× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4×above usual | 12.1× | — |
| P/B | 2.2×below usual | 3.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $54.27 (from $44 to $70) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$54.27
$44 – $70 · +26% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 35.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $5B | 35.0× | 17.4× | 45.6% | 3.4% | 6% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | $6B | 16.5× | 16.8× | 46.2% | 17.9% | 13% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.1× | 11.2× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| KBRKBR, Inc. | $5B | 12.1× | 9.0× | 14.5% | 5.5% | 27% |
| MIDDThe Middleby Corporation | $6B | lost money | n/m | 38.0% | −13.2% | −26% |
| MSAMSA Safety Incorporated | $7B | 22.2× | 14.2× | 47.6% | 16.1% | 23% |
| SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $8B | 20.6× | 12.2× | 45.6% | 15.6% | 18% |
| TKRThe Timken Company | $7B | 24.5× | 12.7× | 29.1% | 5.9% | 9% |
- MIDD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- MIDD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 35.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now35.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $40 a share — 7% below the $42.91 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $40 | 7% below $42.91 |
| Levered | $29 | 33% below $42.91 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.